Primary: Sep 8, 2026
New Hampshire was the last state to finalize its redistricting maps this year, when the New Hampshire Supreme Court approved a map drawn by a redistricting special master at the end of August.
In 2016, incumbent U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte by a mere 0.1 points. In the 2022 midterms, Hassan is deemed one of the top three vulnerable Democrats in the U.S. Senate.
The good news is that New Hampshire Republicans have had a grueling primary, which takes place Sept. 13. Leading the Republican 11 candidate pack is Robert Bolduc, a Big Lie promoter who lost a 2020 primary and who has defended Confederate emblems as a “symbol of hope.” The other Republican to watch is state senate president Chuck Morse.
The Cook Political Report designates New Hampshire as Lean D.
U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) won an open seat in 2018 by 8 points. In 2020, he beat Republican challenger and Trump senior adviser in the State Department Matt Mower, but his margin slipped 3 points. Pappas’ seat is considered the more vulnerable of the two NH congressional seats. Both NH-01 and the NH-02 are considered Democratic toss-ups by Cook Political Report, but NH-01 is R+2 while NH-02, held by Democrat Annie Kuster, is D+1.
Mower is one of 10 Republicans who have filed to run in the primary, which takes place Sept. 13. The other leading challengers are Gail Huff Brown, a former television reporter and wife of one-term Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, as well as Karoline Leavitt, who worked as an assistant White House press secretary under Trump and supports his Big Lie.
The NRCC booked almost $3.5 million for advertising in the Boston market, which could be used to put pressure on Pappas as well as Democratic Kuster.
| Result | State | Incumbent | PVI | Cook Rating | Sabato Rating | Dem Candidate | Rep Candidate | FECID_Rep | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Arizona | Mark Kelly (D) | R+2 | Tossup | Tossup | Mark Kelly | Blake Masters | ||||
| WIN | Georgia | Raphael Warnock (D) | R+3 | Tossup | Tossup | Raphael Warnock | Herschel Walker | ||||
| WIN | Nevada | Catherine Cortez Masto (D) | EVEN | Tossup | Tossup | Catherine Cortez Masto | Adam Laxalt | ||||
| WIN | New Hampshire | Maggie Hassan (D) | EVEN | Lean D | Lean D | Maggie Hassan | Don Bolduc | ||||
| WIN | Pennsylvania | Open (R) | R+2 | Lean D | Tossup | John Fetterman | Mehmet Oz | ||||
| LOSS | Wisconsin | Ron Johnson (R) | R+2 | Tossup | Lean R | Mandela Barnes | Ron Johnson | ||||
| LOSS | North Carolina | Open (R) | EVEN | Lean R | Lean R | Cheri Beasley | Theodore P Budd | ||||
| LOSS | Ohio | Open (R) | R+6 | Lean R | Lean R | Timothy Ryan | J D Vance | ||||
| LOSS | Florida | Marco Rubio (R) | R+3 | Lean R | Likely R | Val Demings | Marco Rubio |
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Votehub Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Iowa | OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R)) | R+6 | Lean R ↑ | 66.3% (R) | Lean R | 2-Jun-26 | Josh Turek | S6IA00298 | $6,276,527 | Ashley Hinson | S6IA00314 | $10,217,845 |
| Michigan | Michigan | OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D)) | R+0 | Tossup | 63.0% (D) | Tossup | 4-Aug-26 | Abdul El-Sayed | S6MI00418 | $14,528,336 | Mike Rogers | S4MI00595 | $10,898,177 |
| New Hampshire | New Hampshire | OPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D)) | D+2 | Lean D | 88.9% (D) | Lean D | 8-Sep-26 | ||||||
| North Carolina | North Carolina | OPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R)) | R+1 | Lean D | 89.3% (D) | Tossup | 3-Mar-26 | Roy Cooper | S6NC00407 | $34,975,789 | Michael Whatley | S6NC00415 | $11,272,504 |
| Alaska | Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | R+6 | Toss Up | 51.6% (D) | Lean R | 18-Aug-26 | Mary Peltola | S6AK00276 | $15,575,539 | Dan Sullivan | S4AK00214 | $11,100,596 |
| Georgia | Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | R+1 | Lean D | 92.2% (D) | Lean D | 19-May-26 | Jon Ossoff | S8GA00180 | $97,986,263 | Mike Collins | S6GA00390 | $7,409,350 |
| Maine | Maine | Susan Collins (R) | D+4 | Tossup | 63.2% (D) | Tossup | 9-Jun-26 | Troy Jackson | S6ME00464 | $0 | Susan Collins | S6ME00159 | $18,930,078 |
| Ohio | Ohio | Jon Husted (R) | R+5 | Toss Up | 51.1% (D) | Lean R | 5-May-26 | Sherrod Brown | S6OH00163 | $38,566,234 | Jon Husted | S6OH00304 | $14,360,028 |
| Texas | Texas | John Cornyn (R) | R+6 | Lean R | 51.7% (R) | Lean R | 3-Mar-26 | James Talarico | S6TX00479 | $68,555,930 | Ken Paxton | S6TX00388 | $9,248,699 |
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