Key Races ▸ By State ▸ New Mexico

New Mexico

House · NM-02 · Gabe VasquezHOLD

Primary: Jun 2, 2026

New Mexico has a strong Democratic presence. All three of New Mexico’s U.S. Congressmen are Democrats, the current governor is a Democrat, and Democrats are the majority in both state senate and house. However, the margins of victory enjoyed by the Democrats have been shrinking.

The state’s 2nd Congressional District reflects what is happening in the rest of the state. When U.S. Representative Gabe Vasquez ran in 2022, Cook rated the race as D+1; now its rating is Even. The GOP is targeting Vasquez in hopes of shoring up their majority in the House. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the principal fundraising and electoral arm of the Democratic Party, has named Vasquez a member of its Frontline program, which aims to protect the seats of vulnerable Democrats.

• New Mexico has a strong Democratic presence, though its margins have been shrinking.
• All three of New Mexico’s U.S. Congressmen are Democrats, the current governor is a Democrat, and Democrats are the majority in both state senate and house. However, the margins of victory enjoyed by the Democrats have been shrinking.
• NM-02 reflects what is happening in the rest of the state. When U.S. Representative Gabe Vasquez ran in 2022, Cook rated the race as D+1; now its rating is Even.
• The GOP is targeting Vasquez in hopes of shoring up their majority in the House.
• Vasquez has been a member of The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Frontline program, which aims to protect the seats of vulnerable Democrats.

COMPETITIVE NM RACES

State	District	Incumbent	Party in Power	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Votehub Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	FECID_Dem	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	FECID_Rep	$ Raised (Rep)	Red District Project
Arizona	AZ-01	OPEN (David Schweikert (R))	Republican	R+1	Toss Up	75.5% (D)	21-Jul-26	Amish Shah	H4AZ01194	$1,830,193	Thomas Feely	H6AZ05190	$2,528,497	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	77.9% (D)	21-Jul-26	JoAnna Mendoza	H6AZ06099	$7,354,599	Juan Ciscomani	H2AZ02360	$6,172,867	Yes
California	CA-13	Adam Gray (D)	Democratic	D+2	Lean D	97.1% (D)	26-Jun-26	Adam Gray	H2CA13115	$4,191,397	Kevin Lincoln	H4CA09093	$2,237,084
California	CA-22	David Valadao (R)	Republican	D+1	Toss Up	79.9% (D)	2-Jun-26	Randy Villegas	H6CA22190	$2,645,560	David Valadao	H2CA20094	$4,927,602	Yes
California	CA-48	OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))	Republican	D+2	Lean D	89.6% (D)	26-Jun-26	Marni von Wilpert	H6CA48310	$2,174,872	Jim Desmond	H6CA49128	$2,258,836
Colorado	CO-08	Gabe Evans (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	80.0% (D)	30-Jun-26	Manny Rutinel	H6CO08013	$4,336,988	Gabe Evans	H4CO08034	$5,393,673	Yes
Florida	FL-14	Kathy Castor (D)	Democratic	R+4	Lean R	60.2% (D)	18-Aug-26	Kathy Castor	H6FL11126	$1,954,817
Florida	FL-22	Lois Frankel (D)	Democratic	R+4	Lean R	68.1% (R)	18-Aug-26
Florida	FL-25	Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)	Democratic	R+3	Toss Up	71.0% (D)	18-Aug-26	Jared Moskowitz	H4FL20023	$3,146,283
Iowa	IA-01	Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)	Republican	R+4	Toss Up	72.2% (D)	2-Jun-26	Christina Bohannan	H2IA02111	$7,051,745	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	H8IA02043	$7,208,271
Iowa	IA-02	OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))	Republican	R+4	Lean R ↑	56.0% (R)	2-Jun-26	Lindsay James	H6IA02211	$1,628,201	Joe Mitchell	H6IA02237	$1,938,593
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn (R)	Republican	R+2	Toss Up	69.7% (D)	26-Jun-26	Sarah Trone Garriott	H6IA03268	$5,293,773	Zach Nunn	H2IA03119	$4,869,249
Michigan	MI-04	Bill Huizenga (R)	Republican	R+3	Lean R ↑	67.9% (R)	4-Aug-26	Sean McCann	H6MI04204	$2,620,011	Bill Huizenga	H0MI02094	$4,093,991
Michigan	MI-07	Tom Barrett (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	56.6% (D)	4-Aug-26	William Lawrence	H6MI07298	$1,119,198	Tom Barrett	H2MI07123	$6,306,828
Michigan	MI-08	Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)	Democratic	R+1	Lean D	95.5% (D)	4-Aug-26	Kristen McDonald Rivet	H4MI08218	$5,644,876	Thomas Smith	H6MI08312	$0
Michigan	MI-10	OPEN (John James - (R))	Republican	R+3	Lean R	61.8% (D)	4-Aug-26	Christina Hines	H6MI10276	$1,211,489	Michael Bouchard	H6MI10359	$1,414,724
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis (D)	Democratic	R+5	Lean R	53.3% (D)	3-Mar-26	Don Davis	H2NC02287	$4,287,386	Laurie Buckhout	H4NC01137	$3,793,077
North Carolina	NC-11	Chuck Edwards (R)	Republican	R+5	Lean R ↑	61.8% (D)	26-Mar-26	Jamie Ager	H6NC11248	$3,052,354	Chuck Edwards	H2NC14050	$939,985
Nebraska	NE-02	OPEN (Don Bacon (R))	Republican	D+3	Lean D	92.3% (D)	12-May-26	Denise Powell	H6NE02174	$2,668,287	Brinker Harding	H6NE02208	$2,034,386
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	76.5% (D)	2-Jun-26	Rebecca Bennett	H6NJ07201	$4,272,034	Thomas Kean	H0NJ07261	$4,892,807
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez (D)	Democratic	EVEN	Lean D	94.1% (D)	2-Jun-26	Gabe Vasquez	H2NM02191	$3,784,102	Greg Cunningham	H6NM02127	$1,510,080
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee (D)	Democratic	D+1	Lean D	89.6% (D)	9-Jun-26	Susie Lee	H6NV04020	$4,401,421	Marty O'Donnell	H6NV03204	$4,055,410
New York	NY-03	Tom Suozzi (D)	Democratic	EVEN	Lean D	92.7% (D)	26-Jun-26	Tom Suozzi	H6NY03247	$5,456,698	Michael LiPetri	H0NY02267	$1,666,542
New York	NY-04	Laura Gillen (D)	Democratic	D+2	Lean D	95.7% (D)	23-Jun-26	Laura Gillen	H2NY04244	$5,097,222	Jeanine Driscoll	H6NY04211	$264,824
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler (R)	Republican	D+1	Toss Up	69.3% (D)	23-Jun-26	Cait Conley	H6NY17171	$4,317,457	Mike Lawler	H2NY17162	$8,172,046
New York	NY-19	Josh Riley (D)	Democratic	D+1	Likely D ↑	92.0% (D)	23-Jun-26	Josh Riley	H8NY22177	$4,825,666	Peter Oberacker	H6NY19268	$1,237,179
Ohio	OH-01	Greg Landsman (D)	Democratic	R+1	Lean D	89.5% (D)	26-May-26	Greg Landsman	H2OH01194	$4,633,250	Eric Conroy	H6OH01138	$1,513,614
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur (D)	Democratic	R+5	Toss Up	70.2% (D)	5-May-26	Marcy Kaptur	H2OH09031	$4,303,416	Derek Merrin	H4OH09169	$1,508,953
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Ryan MacKenzie (R)	Republican	R+1	Toss Up	69.9% (D)	19-May-26	Bob Brooks	H6PA07188	$2,392,215	Ryan MacKenzie	H8PA15195	$4,357,405
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Rob Bresnahan (R)	Republican	R+4	Toss Up	61.5% (D)	19-May-26	Paige Cognetti	H6PA08293	$4,609,589	Rob Bresnahan	H4PA08124	$5,234,586
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry (R)	Republican	R+3	Toss Up	73.3% (D)	19-May-26	Janelle Stelson	H4PA10104	$6,364,069	Scott Perry	H2PA04135	$5,194,925
Texas	TX-28	Henry Cuellar (D)	Democratic	R+3	Lean D	89.5% (D)	3-Mar-26	Henry Cuellar	H2TX23082	$2,231,952	Tano Tijerina	H6TX28124	$1,399,881
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez (D)	Democratic	R+3	Toss Up	80.5% (D)	3-Mar-26	Vicente Gonzalez	H6TX15162	$3,773,915	Eric Flores	H6TX34080	$2,874,990
Virginia	VA-01	Robert Wittman (R)	Republican	R+3	Lean R	60.0% (R)	4-Aug-26	Shannon Taylor	H6VA01299	$2,140,930	Robert Wittman	H8VA01147	$4,053,142
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	70.5% (D)	4-Aug-26	Elaine Luria	H6VA02198	$4,659,795	Jen Kiggans	H2VA02064	$5,954,338
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)	Democratic	R+2	Toss Up	83.6% (D)	4-Aug-26	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	H2WA03217	$6,292,683	John Braun	H6WA03275	$2,035,255
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden (R)	Republican	R+3	Toss Up	60.5% (D)	11-Aug-26	Rebecca Cooke	H4WI03169	$8,601,146	Derrick Van Orden	H0WI03175	$7,526,052

State Map

Key Races in New Mexico

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Senate

State	State For Sorting Hidden	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Votehub Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	FECID_Dem	$ Raised (Dem)	Republican Candidate	FECID_Rep	$ Raised (Rep)
Iowa	Iowa	OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))	R+6	Lean R ↑	65.7% (R)	Lean R	2-Jun-26	Josh Turek	S6IA00298	$6,276,527	Ashley Hinson	S6IA00314	$10,217,845
Michigan	Michigan	OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))	R+0	Tossup	62.8% (D)	Tossup	4-Aug-26	Abdul El-Sayed	S6MI00418	$14,514,336	Mike Rogers	S4MI00595	$10,898,177
New Hampshire	New Hampshire	OPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))	D+2	Lean D	89.4% (D)	Lean D	8-Sep-26
North Carolina	North Carolina	OPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R))	R+1	Lean D	89.9% (D)	Tossup	3-Mar-26	Roy Cooper	S6NC00407	$34,975,789	Michael Whatley	S6NC00415	$11,272,504
Alaska	Alaska	Dan Sullivan (R)	R+6	Toss Up	52.0% (D)	Lean R	18-Aug-26	Mary Peltola	S6AK00276	$18,545,132	Dan Sullivan	S4AK00214	$11,735,898
Georgia	Georgia	Jon Ossoff (D)	R+1	Lean D	92.2% (D)	Lean D	19-May-26	Jon Ossoff	S8GA00180	$97,986,263	Mike Collins	S6GA00390	$7,409,350
Maine	Maine	Susan Collins (R)	D+4	Tossup	63.6% (D)	Tossup	9-Jun-26	Troy Jackson	S6ME00464	$0	Susan Collins	S6ME00159	$18,930,078
Ohio	Ohio	Jon Husted (R)	R+5	Toss Up	51.1% (D)	Lean R	5-May-26	Sherrod Brown	S6OH00163	$38,566,234	Jon Husted	S6OH00304	$14,360,028
Texas	Texas	John Cornyn (R)	R+6	Lean R	50.6% (D)	Lean R	3-Mar-26	James Talarico	S6TX00479	$68,555,930	Ken Paxton	S6TX00388	$9,248,699

House

State	District	Incumbent	Party in Power	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Votehub Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	FECID_Dem	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	FECID_Rep	$ Raised (Rep)	Red District Project
Arizona	AZ-01	OPEN (David Schweikert (R))	Republican	R+1	Toss Up	75.5% (D)	21-Jul-26	Amish Shah	H4AZ01194	$1,830,193	Thomas Feely	H6AZ05190	$2,528,497	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	77.9% (D)	21-Jul-26	JoAnna Mendoza	H6AZ06099	$7,354,599	Juan Ciscomani	H2AZ02360	$6,172,867	Yes
California	CA-13	Adam Gray (D)	Democratic	D+2	Lean D	97.1% (D)	26-Jun-26	Adam Gray	H2CA13115	$4,191,397	Kevin Lincoln	H4CA09093	$2,237,084
California	CA-22	David Valadao (R)	Republican	D+1	Toss Up	79.9% (D)	2-Jun-26	Randy Villegas	H6CA22190	$2,645,560	David Valadao	H2CA20094	$4,927,602	Yes
California	CA-48	OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))	Republican	D+2	Lean D	89.6% (D)	26-Jun-26	Marni von Wilpert	H6CA48310	$2,174,872	Jim Desmond	H6CA49128	$2,258,836
Colorado	CO-08	Gabe Evans (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	80.0% (D)	30-Jun-26	Manny Rutinel	H6CO08013	$4,336,988	Gabe Evans	H4CO08034	$5,393,673	Yes
Florida	FL-14	Kathy Castor (D)	Democratic	R+4	Lean R	60.2% (D)	18-Aug-26	Kathy Castor	H6FL11126	$1,954,817
Florida	FL-22	Lois Frankel (D)	Democratic	R+4	Lean R	68.1% (R)	18-Aug-26
Florida	FL-25	Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)	Democratic	R+3	Toss Up	71.0% (D)	18-Aug-26	Jared Moskowitz	H4FL20023	$3,146,283
Iowa	IA-01	Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)	Republican	R+4	Toss Up	72.2% (D)	2-Jun-26	Christina Bohannan	H2IA02111	$7,051,745	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	H8IA02043	$7,208,271
Iowa	IA-02	OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))	Republican	R+4	Lean R ↑	56.0% (R)	2-Jun-26	Lindsay James	H6IA02211	$1,628,201	Joe Mitchell	H6IA02237	$1,938,593
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn (R)	Republican	R+2	Toss Up	69.7% (D)	26-Jun-26	Sarah Trone Garriott	H6IA03268	$5,293,773	Zach Nunn	H2IA03119	$4,869,249
Michigan	MI-04	Bill Huizenga (R)	Republican	R+3	Lean R ↑	67.9% (R)	4-Aug-26	Sean McCann	H6MI04204	$2,620,011	Bill Huizenga	H0MI02094	$4,093,991
Michigan	MI-07	Tom Barrett (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	56.6% (D)	4-Aug-26	William Lawrence	H6MI07298	$1,119,198	Tom Barrett	H2MI07123	$6,306,828
Michigan	MI-08	Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)	Democratic	R+1	Lean D	95.5% (D)	4-Aug-26	Kristen McDonald Rivet	H4MI08218	$5,644,876	Thomas Smith	H6MI08312	$0
Michigan	MI-10	OPEN (John James - (R))	Republican	R+3	Lean R	61.8% (D)	4-Aug-26	Christina Hines	H6MI10276	$1,211,489	Michael Bouchard	H6MI10359	$1,414,724
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis (D)	Democratic	R+5	Lean R	53.3% (D)	3-Mar-26	Don Davis	H2NC02287	$4,287,386	Laurie Buckhout	H4NC01137	$3,793,077
North Carolina	NC-11	Chuck Edwards (R)	Republican	R+5	Lean R ↑	61.8% (D)	26-Mar-26	Jamie Ager	H6NC11248	$3,052,354	Chuck Edwards	H2NC14050	$939,985
Nebraska	NE-02	OPEN (Don Bacon (R))	Republican	D+3	Lean D	92.3% (D)	12-May-26	Denise Powell	H6NE02174	$2,668,287	Brinker Harding	H6NE02208	$2,034,386
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	76.5% (D)	2-Jun-26	Rebecca Bennett	H6NJ07201	$4,272,034	Thomas Kean	H0NJ07261	$4,892,807
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez (D)	Democratic	EVEN	Lean D	94.1% (D)	2-Jun-26	Gabe Vasquez	H2NM02191	$3,784,102	Greg Cunningham	H6NM02127	$1,510,080
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee (D)	Democratic	D+1	Lean D	89.6% (D)	9-Jun-26	Susie Lee	H6NV04020	$4,401,421	Marty O'Donnell	H6NV03204	$4,055,410
New York	NY-03	Tom Suozzi (D)	Democratic	EVEN	Lean D	92.7% (D)	26-Jun-26	Tom Suozzi	H6NY03247	$5,456,698	Michael LiPetri	H0NY02267	$1,666,542
New York	NY-04	Laura Gillen (D)	Democratic	D+2	Lean D	95.7% (D)	23-Jun-26	Laura Gillen	H2NY04244	$5,097,222	Jeanine Driscoll	H6NY04211	$264,824
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler (R)	Republican	D+1	Toss Up	69.3% (D)	23-Jun-26	Cait Conley	H6NY17171	$4,317,457	Mike Lawler	H2NY17162	$8,172,046
New York	NY-19	Josh Riley (D)	Democratic	D+1	Likely D ↑	92.0% (D)	23-Jun-26	Josh Riley	H8NY22177	$4,825,666	Peter Oberacker	H6NY19268	$1,237,179
Ohio	OH-01	Greg Landsman (D)	Democratic	R+1	Lean D	89.5% (D)	26-May-26	Greg Landsman	H2OH01194	$4,633,250	Eric Conroy	H6OH01138	$1,513,614
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur (D)	Democratic	R+5	Toss Up	70.2% (D)	5-May-26	Marcy Kaptur	H2OH09031	$4,303,416	Derek Merrin	H4OH09169	$1,508,953
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Ryan MacKenzie (R)	Republican	R+1	Toss Up	69.9% (D)	19-May-26	Bob Brooks	H6PA07188	$2,392,215	Ryan MacKenzie	H8PA15195	$4,357,405
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Rob Bresnahan (R)	Republican	R+4	Toss Up	61.5% (D)	19-May-26	Paige Cognetti	H6PA08293	$4,609,589	Rob Bresnahan	H4PA08124	$5,234,586
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry (R)	Republican	R+3	Toss Up	73.3% (D)	19-May-26	Janelle Stelson	H4PA10104	$6,364,069	Scott Perry	H2PA04135	$5,194,925
Texas	TX-28	Henry Cuellar (D)	Democratic	R+3	Lean D	89.5% (D)	3-Mar-26	Henry Cuellar	H2TX23082	$2,231,952	Tano Tijerina	H6TX28124	$1,399,881
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez (D)	Democratic	R+3	Toss Up	80.5% (D)	3-Mar-26	Vicente Gonzalez	H6TX15162	$3,773,915	Eric Flores	H6TX34080	$2,874,990
Virginia	VA-01	Robert Wittman (R)	Republican	R+3	Lean R	60.0% (R)	4-Aug-26	Shannon Taylor	H6VA01299	$2,140,930	Robert Wittman	H8VA01147	$4,053,142
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	70.5% (D)	4-Aug-26	Elaine Luria	H6VA02198	$4,659,795	Jen Kiggans	H2VA02064	$5,954,338
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)	Democratic	R+2	Toss Up	83.6% (D)	4-Aug-26	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	H2WA03217	$6,292,683	John Braun	H6WA03275	$2,035,255
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden (R)	Republican	R+3	Toss Up	60.5% (D)	11-Aug-26	Rebecca Cooke	H4WI03169	$8,601,146	Derrick Van Orden	H0WI03175	$7,526,052

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