Key Races ▸ By State ▸ Wisconsin

Wisconsin

House · WI-03FLIP House · WI-01WATCH

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Wisconsin is divided politically: Deep-red rural areas in the north/west and Democratic-stronghold urban centers in Milwaukee and Madison. Republicans hold six of eight U.S. House seats, but statewide contests are often won by slim margins.



Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional district, a largely rural area, is a possible flip. The incumbent is a vocal Trump supporter who has supported Trump’s tariffs, which have pummeled the state’s agricultural, manufacturing, and automotive sectors. Democrat Rebecca Cooke, a small business owner, has positioned herself as a centrist who supports policies important to working families.

  • WI-03 has attracted a crowded field, with four Democrats and three Independents on the August 11 primary ballot.
  • Cooke has been endorsed by Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
  • Vice President JD Vance has campaigned for Derrick Van Orden (R, WI-03), which may not be helpful since Trump’s net approval rating in the state is -10.
  • In 2024, Trump won the 3rd congressional district by 7 points, while Van Orden won it by less than 3.
  • Republicans maintain control of the WI state legislature, but new, non-gerrymandered districts will mean Democrats are hopeful to work to flip several seats.
  • In April, Democrats won big in the state Supreme Court election. Chris Taylor defeated Republican Maria Lazar in a landslide, expanding the court’s liberal majority from 4–3 to 5–2.
  • The race for the open governor’s seat is expected to be a fierce contest and is rated a tossup. Wisconsin is one of only five states with a Democratic governor that voted for Donald Trump.
  • Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional district is one to watch. Incumbent Bryan Steil (R) Steil voted to protect Trump’s tariffs from Congressional oversight and supports the Make Elections Great Again Act, which would limit the types of identification needed for voting, thus disenfranchising millions.
COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES


State District Incumbent Partisan Lean Cook Rating Votehub Rating Primary Date Dem Candidate $ Raised (Dem) Rep Candidate $ Raised (Rep)
Arizona AZ-01 OPEN (David Schweikert (R)) Republican R+1 Toss Up 73.3% (D) 21-Jul-26 Amish Shah H4AZ01194 $1,830,193 Thomas Feely H6AZ05190 $2,528,497 Yes
Arizona AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 76.7% (D) 21-Jul-26 JoAnna Mendoza H6AZ06099 $7,354,808 Juan Ciscomani H2AZ02360 $6,172,867 Yes
California CA-22 David Valadao (R) Republican D+1 Toss Up 78.8% (D) 2-Jun-26 Randy Villegas H6CA22190 $2,645,560 David Valadao H2CA20094 $4,927,602 Yes
California CA-48 OPEN (Darrell Issa (R)) Republican D+2 Lean D 86.7% (D) 26-Jun-26 Marni von Wilpert H6CA48310 $2,174,872 Jim Desmond H6CA49128 $2,258,836
Colorado CO-08 Gabe Evans (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 77.5% (D) 30-Jun-26 Manny Rutinel H6CO08013 $4,336,988 Gabe Evans H4CO08034 $5,393,673 Yes
Florida FL-14 Kathy Castor (D) Democratic R+4 Toss Up ↑ 59.7% (D) 18-Aug-26 Kathy Castor H6FL11126 $2,337,999 Mike Beltran H6FL14237 $2,116,747
Florida FL-22 Lois Frankel (D) Democratic R+4 Lean R 69.7% (R) 18-Aug-26 Pia Dandiya H6FL21059 $2,284,052 Casey Askar H6FL22248 $2,567,760
Florida FL-25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) Democratic R+3 Toss Up 68.6% (D) 18-Aug-26 Jared Moskowitz H4FL20023 $3,300,107 Scott Singer H6FL23188 $2,245,960
Iowa IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) Republican R+4 Toss Up 69.4% (D) 2-Jun-26 Christina Bohannan H2IA02111 $7,051,745 Mariannette Miller-Meeks H8IA02043 $7,208,271
Iowa IA-02 OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R)) Republican R+4 Lean R ↑ 58.0% (R) 2-Jun-26 Lindsay James H6IA02211 $1,628,201 Joe Mitchell H6IA02237 $1,938,593
Iowa IA-03 Zach Nunn (R) Republican R+2 Toss Up 71.1% (D) 26-Jun-26 Sarah Trone Garriott H6IA03268 $5,293,773 Zach Nunn H2IA03119 $4,869,249
Michigan MI-04 Bill Huizenga (R) Republican R+3 Lean R ↑ 68.9% (R) 4-Aug-26 Sean McCann H6MI04204 $2,620,011 Bill Huizenga H0MI02094 $4,093,991
Michigan MI-07 Tom Barrett (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 50.6% (D) 4-Aug-26 William Lawrence H6MI07298 $1,119,198 Tom Barrett H2MI07123 $6,306,828
Michigan MI-10 OPEN (John James - (R)) Republican R+3 Toss Up ↑ 61.5% (D) 4-Aug-26 Christina Hines H6MI10276 $1,211,489 Michael Bouchard H6MI10359 $1,623,745
North Carolina NC-01 Don Davis (D) Democratic R+5 Lean R 54.1% (D) 3-Mar-26 Don Davis H2NC02287 $4,287,386 Laurie Buckhout H4NC01137 $3,793,077
North Carolina NC-11 Chuck Edwards (R) Republican R+5 Lean R ↑ 62.5% (D) 26-Mar-26 Jamie Ager H6NC11248 $3,052,354 Chuck Edwards H2NC14050 $939,985
Nebraska NE-02 OPEN (Don Bacon (R)) Republican D+3 Lean D 92.4% (D) 12-May-26 Denise Powell H6NE02174 $2,668,287 Brinker Harding H6NE02208 $2,034,386
New Jersey NJ-07 Thomas Kean (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 75.4% (D) 2-Jun-26 Rebecca Bennett H6NJ07201 $4,272,034 Thomas Kean H0NJ07261 $4,892,807
Nevada NV-03 Susie Lee (D) Democratic D+1 Lean D 89.3% (D) 9-Jun-26 Susie Lee H6NV04020 $4,401,421 Marty O'Donnell H6NV03204 $4,055,410
New York NY-17 Mike Lawler (R) Republican D+1 Toss Up 66.2% (D) 23-Jun-26 H6NY17171 $4,317,457 Mike Lawler H2NY17162 $8,172,046
Ohio OH-01 Greg Landsman (D) Democratic R+1 Lean D 87.4% (D) 26-May-26 Greg Landsman H2OH01194 $4,633,250 Eric Conroy H6OH01138 $1,513,614
Ohio OH-07 Max Miller (R) Republican R+5 Toss Up 66.7% (D) 5-May-26 Brian Poindexter H6OH07168 $603,156 Max Miller H2OH16051 $2,142,562
Ohio OH-09 Marcy Kaptur (D) Democratic R+5 Toss Up 66.7% (D) 5-May-26 Marcy Kaptur H2OH09031 $4,303,416 Derek Merrin H4OH09169 $1,508,953
Pennsylvania PA-07 Ryan MacKenzie (R) Republican R+1 Toss Up 72.0% (D) 19-May-26 Bob Brooks H6PA07188 $2,392,215 Ryan MacKenzie H8PA15195 $4,357,405
Pennsylvania PA-08 Rob Bresnahan (R) Republican R+4 Toss Up 60.8% (D) 19-May-26 Paige Cognetti H6PA08293 $4,609,589 Rob Bresnahan H4PA08124 $5,234,586
Texas TX-15 Monica De La Cruz (R) Republican R+7 Lean R 55.8% (D) 3-Mar-26 Bobby Pulido H6TX15246 $2,960,462 Monica De La Cruz H0TX15124 $5,273,960
Pennsylvania PA-10 Scott Perry (R) Republican R+3 Toss Up 72.1% (D) 19-May-26 Janelle Stelson H4PA10104 $6,364,069 Scott Perry H2PA04135 $5,194,925
Texas TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez (D) Democratic R+3 Toss Up 81.3% (D) 3-Mar-26 Vicente Gonzalez H6TX15162 $3,773,915 Eric Flores H6TX34080 $2,874,990
Virginia VA-01 Robert Wittman (R) Republican R+3 Lean R 62.9% (R) 4-Aug-26 Shannon Taylor H6VA01299 $2,140,980 Robert Wittman H8VA01147 $4,053,142
Virginia VA-02 Jen Kiggans (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 70.3% (D) 4-Aug-26 Elaine Luria H6VA02198 $4,659,795 Jen Kiggans H2VA02064 $5,954,338
Washington WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) Democratic R+2 Toss Up 83.1% (D) 4-Aug-26 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez H2WA03217 $6,292,683 John Braun H6WA03275 $2,214,441
Wisconsin WI-03 Derrick Van Orden (R) Republican R+3 Toss Up 63.3% (D) 11-Aug-26 Rebecca Cooke H4WI03169 $8,601,146 Derrick Van Orden H0WI03175 $7,526,052
State Map

Key Races in Wisconsin

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Senate

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑69.8% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$6,276,527Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$10,217,845
MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup66.7% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$14,514,336Mike RogersS4MI00595$10,898,177
New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D85.8% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$15,384,657John E. SununuS6NH00208$4,124,582
North CarolinaNorth CarolinaOPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R))R+1Lean D89.0% (D)Tossup3-Mar-26Roy CooperS6NC00407$34,975,789Michael WhatleyS6NC00415$11,272,504
AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up55.8% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$18,545,132Dan SullivanS4AK00214$11,735,898
MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup62.6% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$0Susan CollinsS6ME00159$18,930,078
OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up53.9% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$38,566,234Jon HustedS6OH00304$14,360,028
TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑50.2% (R)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$68,555,930Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$9,248,699

House

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Toss Up73.3% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$1,830,193Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$2,528,497Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up76.7% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$7,354,808Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$6,172,867Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up78.8% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$2,645,560David ValadaoH2CA20094$4,927,602Yes
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D86.7% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$2,174,872Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,258,836
ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up77.5% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$4,336,988Gabe EvansH4CO08034$5,393,673Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑59.7% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$2,337,999Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,116,747
FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R69.7% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$2,284,052Casey AskarH6FL22248$2,567,760
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up68.6% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,300,107Scott SingerH6FL23188$2,245,960
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up69.4% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$7,051,745Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$7,208,271
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Lean R ↑58.0% (R)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$1,628,201Joe MitchellH6IA02237$1,938,593
IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Toss Up71.1% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$5,293,773Zach NunnH2IA03119$4,869,249
MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R ↑68.9% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$2,620,011Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$4,093,991
MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up50.6% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$1,119,198Tom BarrettH2MI07123$6,306,828
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑61.5% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$1,211,489Michael BouchardH6MI10359$1,623,745
North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Lean R54.1% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$4,287,386Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$3,793,077
North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R ↑62.5% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$3,052,354Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$939,985
NebraskaNE-02OPEN (Don Bacon (R))RepublicanD+3Lean D92.4% (D)12-May-26Denise PowellH6NE02174$2,668,287Brinker HardingH6NE02208$2,034,386
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up75.4% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$4,272,034Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$4,892,807
NevadaNV-03Susie Lee (D)DemocraticD+1Lean D89.3% (D)9-Jun-26Susie LeeH6NV04020$4,401,421Marty O'Donnell H6NV03204$4,055,410
New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up66.2% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$4,317,457Mike LawlerH2NY17162$8,172,046
OhioOH-01Greg Landsman (D)DemocraticR+1Lean D87.4% (D)26-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$4,633,250Eric ConroyH6OH01138$1,513,614
OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up66.7% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$603,156Max MillerH2OH16051$2,142,562
OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up66.7% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$4,303,416Derek MerrinH4OH09169$1,508,953
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Toss Up72.0% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$2,392,215Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$4,357,405
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up60.8% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$4,609,589Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$5,234,586
TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Lean R55.8% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$2,960,462Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$5,273,960
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up72.1% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$6,364,069Scott PerryH2PA04135$5,194,925
TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up81.3% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$3,773,915Eric FloresH6TX34080$2,874,990
VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R62.9% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$2,140,980Robert WittmanH8VA01147$4,053,142
VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up70.3% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$4,659,795Jen KiggansH2VA02064$5,954,338
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Toss Up83.1% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$6,292,683John BraunH6WA03275$2,214,441
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up63.3% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$8,601,146Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$7,526,052

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