Take Action Florida

Senate (Demings)

Val Demings won the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Florida with almost 85% of the vote. Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio had no primary. Demings has raised appreciably more money -- $48 million to Rubio’s $36 million. But money isn’t the whole story in Florida. What’s happening in the country has a profound effect on the Senate race there. A former Orlando police chief, Demings is a rising star who was considered as Biden’s running mate. Since 2017, she has represented FL-10 in Congress. Demings’ bid to flip the Senate seat has gained momentum due to the anger provoked by the reversal of Roe v. Wade as well as a positive bounce from recent legislative wins by Democrats in Congress. But Rubio’s appeal to Republicans is strong, and the FBI search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago has conservatives seething.

Florida is tough for Democrats. It is R+3 and is rated lean Republican by Cook and likely R by Sabato.

The Republican state legislature and the courts handed Gov. Ron DeSantis a win when neither blocked his highly gerrymandered redistricting map. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project gave the Florida redistricting plan an overall grade of F. Florida is also gaining a House seat, and DeSantis’ map gives Republicans an advantage in 18 out of the 28 districts. Florida currently has 16 Republican congressmen.

Many Democratic seats will be nearly impossible to hold including FL-13, Charlie Crist’s seat; FL-07, Stephanie Murphy’s seat; and the new FL-15. This leaves no competitive House seats in the state of Florida.

SENATE RACE

Result	State	Incumbent	PVI	Cook Rating	Sabato Rating	Dem Candidate	Rep Candidate
WIN	Arizona	Mark Kelly (D)	R+2	Tossup	Tossup	Mark Kelly	Blake Masters
WIN	Georgia	Raphael Warnock (D)	R+3	Tossup	Tossup	Raphael Warnock	Herschel Walker
WIN	Nevada	Catherine Cortez Masto (D)	EVEN	Tossup	Tossup	Catherine Cortez Masto	Adam Laxalt
WIN	New Hampshire	Maggie Hassan (D)	EVEN	Lean D	Lean D	Maggie Hassan	Don Bolduc
WIN	Pennsylvania	Open (R)	R+2	Lean D	Tossup	John Fetterman	Mehmet Oz
LOSS	Wisconsin	Ron Johnson (R)	R+2	Tossup	Lean R	Mandela Barnes	Ron Johnson
LOSS	North Carolina	Open (R)	EVEN	Lean R	Lean R	Cheri Beasley	Theodore P Budd
LOSS	Ohio	Open (R)	R+6	Lean R	Lean R	Timothy Ryan	J D Vance
LOSS	Florida	Marco Rubio (R)	R+3	Lean R	Likely R	Val Demings	Marco Rubio

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