Senate (Open); MI-04 (Flip); MI-07 (Flip); MI-08 (McDonald Rivet); MI-10 (Open)
Michigan is a pivotal battleground state. The state has had a Democratic governor since 2018, and Democrats have held every Michigan U.S. Senate seat since 1996. In addition, the state has voted blue in seven of the last nine presidential elections. This trend toward Democrats is driven by strong Democratic support for auto workers’ unions, large urban centers, and shifts among upper-income suburban voters. However, with Democratic Senator Gary Peters retiring, Republicans see this as an opportunity to elect Mike Rogers, the candidate who in 2024 narrowly lost against current U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin. The Democratic frontrunners to replace Peters are State Senator Mallory McMorrow and Congresswoman Haley Stevens.
Michigan’s 4th Congressional district has two Democrats vying to oust the incumbent Republican, but only one, Sean McCann, has raised significant campaign cash. In the state's 7th Congressional district, represented by Republican Tom Barrett and rated a Tossup, is prime for a flip. Barrett lost this same seat in 2022 to now-Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin. 51.7% to 46.3%.. Other districts worth focusing on are MI-08 and MI-10. First-term incumbent Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-08) is in a race deemed Lean D and faces three Republican opponents in the August 4 primary. Michigan's 10th district has an open seat now held by a Republican who is running for governor. The district is considered one of the most competitive open-seat opportunities in the Midwest, and Democrats have a strong primary field led by well-funded candidates.
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Votehub Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | R+6 | Toss Up | 50.2% (R) | Lean R | 18-Aug-26 | Mary Peltola | S6AK00276 | $8,661,662 | Dan Sullivan | S4AK00214 | $9,099,779 |
| Georgia | Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | R+1 | Lean D | 88.8% (D) | Lean D | 19-May-26 | Jon Ossoff | S8GA00180 | $81,146,109 | Mike Collins | S6GA00390 | $5,546,637 |
| Iowa | Iowa | OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R)) | R+6 | Lean R ↑ | 66.8% (R) | Lean R | 2-Jun-26 | Josh Turek | S6IA00298 | $3,463,099 | Ashley Hinson | S6IA00314 | $8,158,017 |
| Maine | Maine | Susan Collins (R) | D+4 | Tossup | 65.2% (D) | Tossup | 9-Jun-26 | Susan Collins | S6ME00159 | $14,925,296 | |||
| Michigan | Michigan | OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D)) | R+0 | Tossup | 69.0% (D) | Tossup | 4-Aug-26 | ||||||
| New Hampshire | New Hampshire | OPEN -- (Jeane Shaheen (D)) | D+2 | Lean D | 85.2% (D) | Lean D | 8-Sep-26 | ||||||
| North Carolina | North Carolina | OPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R)) | R+1 | Lean D | 86.6% (D) | Tossup | 3-Mar-26 | Roy Cooper | S6NC00407 | $26,822,373 | Michael Whatley | S6NC00415 | $8,410,252 |
| Ohio | Ohio | Jon Husted (R) | R+5 | Toss Up | 54.3% (R) | Lean R | 5-May-26 | Sherrod Brown | S6OH00163 | $25,979,968 | Jon Husted | S6OH00304 | $10,527,814 |
| Texas | Texas | John Cornyn (R) | R+6 | Lean R | 60.1% (R) | Lean R | 3-Mar-26 | James Talarico | S6TX00479 | $40,284,109 | Ken Paxton | S6TX00388 | $7,605,209 |
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