Take Action Michigan

Name: POSTCARDING w/DOLLY into Swing States
Start: 2024-09-11T17:00:00-04:00
End: 2024-09-11T19:00:00-04:00
Location: virtual

Senate (Open - Stabinow), MI-07 (Open), MI-08 (Open), MI-10 (Flip)

Michigan has one U.S. Senate and three House races of note. The Senate race is worth our attention as incumbent Democratic Debbie Stabenow, in office since 2000, is not seeking a fifth term. Several candidates have emerged, including Elissa Slotkin, who currently serves in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District.

Races in the U.S. House include MI-07, open because of Slotkin’s decision to run for Senate; MI-08 which is open due to incumbent Democrat Dan Kildee’s retirement; and MI-10, where Democrats hope to flip the seat now held by a Republican.
[Read More Below]

MICHIGAN COMPETITIVE RACES

SENATE

State	Incumbent	PVI	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
Arizona	OPEN -- (Sinema (I))	R+2	Tossup	Jul-30	Ruben Gallego*
Nevada	Jacky Rosen (D)	EVEN	Lean D	Jun-11	Jacky Rosen
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey (D)	R+2	Lean D	Apr-23	Bob Casey	Dave McCormick
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin (D)	R+2	Lean D	Aug-06	Tammy Baldwin
Michigan	OPEN -- (Stabinow (D))	EVEN	Lean D	Aug-06	Elissa Slotkin*
Ohio	Sherrod Brown (D)	R+6	Tossup	Mar-19	Sherrod Brown	Bernie Moreno
Montana	Jon Tester (D)	R+11	Tossup	Jun-04	Jon Tester	Tim Sheehy

HOUSE

State	District	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Party in Power	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	$ Raised (Rep)
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	R+8	D	Lean D	Aug-20	Mary Peltola	$2,574,831
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+2	R	Toss Up	Jul-30			David Schweikert	$1,192,101
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jul-30			Juan Ciscomani	$2,452,350
California	CA-47	OPEN (Porter)	D+3	D	Lean D	Mar-5	David Min	$424,839	Scott Baugh	$1,903,809
California	CA-13	John Duarte	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Adam Gray	$1,150,422	John Duarte	$1,813,336
California	CA-22	David Valadao	D+5	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Rudy Salas	$754,435	David Valadao	$1,640,960
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	George Whitesides	$3,047,188	Mike Garcia	$1,754,767
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R+3	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Will Rollins	$3,162,026	Ken Calvert	$2,639,377
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	D+2	R	Lean R	Mar-5	Derek Tran	$195,382	Michelle Steel	$3,218,738
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	EVEN	D	Toss Up	Jun-25	Yadira Caraveo	$1,997,583
Colorado	CO-03	OPEN (Boebert)	R+7	R	Lean R	Jun-25	Adam Frisch	$5,814,105	Jeff Hurd	$527,737
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Jahana Hayes	$1,526,492
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+2	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Eric Sorensen	$2,157,618	Joseph McGraw	$325,191
Indiana	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	D+3	D	Lean D	May-7	Frank Mrvan	$1,238,183	Randy Niemeyer	$295,575
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+3	R	Lean R	Jun-4	Lanon Baccam	$1,153,969	Zach Nunn	$1,847,579
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	R+6	D	Toss Up	Jun-11	Jared Golden	$2,156,439
Michigan	MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin)	R+2	D	Toss Up	Aug-6
Michigan	MI-08	OPEN (Kildee)	R+1	D	Toss Up	Aug-6
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R+3	R	Lean R	Aug-6			John James	$2,958,581
Minnesota	MN-02	Angie Craig	D+1	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Angie Craig	$2,822,415
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	EVEN	R	Lean R	May-14	Tony Vargas	$1,641,255	Don Bacon	$1,727,525
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-11	Susie Lee	$2,179,266	Drew Johnson	$211,437
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-4	Sue Altman	$913,939	Thomas Kean	$2,395,291
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D+1	D	Toss Up	Jun-4	Gabe Vasquez	$1,805,859	Yvette Herrell	$1,044,795
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Pat Ryan	$2,768,926	Alison Esposito	$437,127
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	D+3	R	Lean D	Jun-25	John Mannion	$372,834	Brandon Williams	$1,080,376
New York	NY-04	Anthony DEsposito	D+5	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Laura Gillen	$879,583	Anthony DEsposito	$1,363,618
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+3	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Mondaire Jones	$3,115,165	Mike Lawler	$3,022,485
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Josh Riley	$2,508,263	Marc Molinaro	$1,767,264
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-5	Don Davis	$1,845,760	Laurie Buckhout	$239,479
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+3	D	Toss Up	Mar-19	Marcy Kaptur	$1,893,847	Derek Merrin	$88,166
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-19	Emilia Sykes	$1,649,815	Kevin Coughlin	$76,192
Oregon	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+4	D	Lean D	May-21	Andrea Salinas	$1,601,364	Mike Erickson	$140,962
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	D+2	R	Lean R	May-21	Janelle Bynum	$560,821	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	$1,878,340
Pennsylvania	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	EVEN	D	Lean D	Apr-23	Chris Deluzio	$1,491,729	Rob Mercuri	$540,528
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	R+2	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Susan Wild	$2,662,153	Ryan MacKenzie	$126,142
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	R+4	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Matt Cartwright	$3,151,047	Robert Bresnahan	$834,919
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry	R+5	R	Lean R	Apr-23	Janelle Stelson	$191,905	Scott Perry	$513,461
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	D+9	D	Lean D	May-28	Vicente Gonzalez	$1,452,143	Mayra Flores	$786,597
Virginia	VA-07	OPEN (Spanberger)	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-18	Eugene Vindman	$1,841,459	Derrick Anderson	$581,005
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R+2	R	Lean R	Jun-18	Missy Cotter Smasal	$299,078	Jen Kiggans	$1,785,014
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	R+5	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	$3,028,214
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+4	R	Lean R	Aug-13			Derrick Van Orden	$1,946,820

Coming off historic losses in 2022, the Michigan Republican State Party is in dire financial straits, and the infighting has been fierce. A report issued by a GOP activist says most party bank accounts are empty. This chaos and lack of capital likely will provide a boon for the state’s Democrats.

The House races:

MI-07: Both parties are eyeing the open seat in MI-07, a district of growing diversity. The outcome of the election likely will hinge on voter turnout. It is rated a Tossup.
M-08: Redistricting made MI-08 more red, but incumbent Kildee won by 10 points in 2022, good news for whoever wins the Democratic primary in August. The district is rated Toss-up.
MI-10: A suburban district north of Detroit, MI-10 is eminently flippable. It is rated Lean R, but the current Republican incumbent, who had a great financial advantage, won by only 1,600 votes in 2022.

Show more about Michigan races Show Less