Take Action New York

NY-03 (Open), NY-04 (D'Esposito), NY-17 (Lawler), NY-18 (Ryan), NY-19 (Molinaro), NY-22 (Williams)

There is an opportunity to flip five, yes five! House seats in New York. Additionally there is one competitive Democratic seat won by Freshman Rep Pat Ryan in NY-18. If Dems win these six races, New York can singularly flip the House.

The first flip could happen even before November since a special election has been called in NY-03 to replace the disgraced former Representative and Olympic-Gold-Liar George Santos. The NY Dems have tapped former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi to run in the Feb. 13 special election.
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StateDistrictIncumbentParty in PowerPVICook RatingPrimary Date
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaDR+8Lean D20-Aug
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertRR+2Tossup2-Aug
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRR+3Tossup2-Aug
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteRD+4Tossup7-Jun
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRD+5Tossup7-Jun
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaRD+4Tossup7-Jun
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertRR+3Tossup7-Jun
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelRD+2Lean R7-Jun
CaliforniaCA-47Open (Porter)DD+3Lean D7-Jun
ColoradoCO-03Lauren BoebertRR+7Tossup28-Jun
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoDEVENTossup28-Jun
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesDD+3Lean D13-Aug
FloridaFL-05John RutherfordRR+11*Tossup20-Aug
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenDD+2Lean D19-Mar
IndianaIN-01Frank J. MrvanDD+3Lean D7-May
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRR+3Lean R4-Jun
LouisianaLA-05Julia LetlowRR+17Tossup5-Nov
MaineME-02Jared GoldenDR+6Tossup18-Jun
MichiganMI-07Open (Slotkin)DR+2Tossup6-Aug
MichiganMI-10John JamesRR+3Lean R6-Aug
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconREVENLean R14-May
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDD+1Lean D14-Jun
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean Jr.RR+1Tossup4-Jun
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDD+1Tossup7-Jun
New YorkNY-03George SantosRD+2Lean D23-Aug
New YorkNY-04Anthony D'EspositoRD+5Tossup23-Aug
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRD+3Tossup23-Aug
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanDD+1Lean D23-Aug
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroREVENTossup23-Aug
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsRD+1Tossup23-Aug
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDD+2Lean D17-May
North CarolinaNC-06Kathy ManningDD+4Tossup17-May
North CarolinaNC-13Wiley NickelDR+2Tossup17-May
North CarolinaNC-14Jeff JacksonDD+6Tossup17-May
OhioOH-01Greg LandsmanDD+2Lean D3-May
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesDR+1Tossup3-May
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerRD+2Tossup17-May
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildDR+2Tossup17-May
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightDR+4Tossup17-May
VirginiaVA-07Open (Abigail Spanberger)DD+1Lean DTBD
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRR+2Lean RTBD
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDR+5TossupTBD
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRR+4Lean RTBD
MichiganMI-08Dan KildeeDR+1Lean D06-Aug

Still, the 2022 midterms showed that a win in NY-03 is far from certain for Democrats. Redistricting in New York proved a boon for the GOP as they picked up four seats in Long Island.

The races for Congress in 2024 are expected to be keenly contested. Of note (in addition to NY-03) are four seats currently held by Republicans – NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22. These four are rated Tossups and are eminently “flippable.” First term Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan (NY-18) is running for reelection in a district deemed Lean D.

Some key considerations in New York center on redistricting. The state appeals court has yet to issue its decision on redrawing the maps, but the Independent Redistricting Committee is being allowed to proceed in revising the 2022 maps that favored Republicans.

Responding to the Republican showing in the midterms, the NY Democratic Party and grassroots groups working in the state are taking no vote for granted. Democratic leaders are planning a ballot measure that will enshrine abortion in the state constitution. It’s a move seen as boosting Democratic turnout, which in turn, will help the party win more Congressional and local races.

The 2024 elections will be a crucial test for both parties, and the results will have far-reaching implications for the future of democracy in the state and in the country.



Rina Schneur