Take Action New York
NY-03 (Open), NY-04 (D'Esposito), NY-17 (Lawler), NY-18 (Ryan), NY-19 (Molinaro), NY-22 (Williams)
There is an opportunity to flip five, yes five! House seats in New York. Additionally there is one competitive Democratic seat won by Freshman Rep Pat Ryan in NY-18. If Dems win these six races, New York can singularly flip the House. The first flip could happen even before November since a special election has been called in NY-03 to replace the disgraced former Representative and Olympic-Gold-Liar George Santos. The NY Dems have tapped former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi to run in the Feb. 13 special election. [Read More Below]
|State||District||Incumbent||Party in Power||PVI||Cook Rating||Primary Date|
|Alaska||AK-00||Mary Peltola||D||R+8||Lean D||20-Aug|
|California||CA-45||Michelle Steel||R||D+2||Lean R||7-Jun|
|California||CA-47||Open (Porter)||D||D+3||Lean D||7-Jun|
|Connecticut||CT-05||Jahana Hayes||D||D+3||Lean D||13-Aug|
|Illinois||IL-17||Eric Sorensen||D||D+2||Lean D||19-Mar|
|Indiana||IN-01||Frank J. Mrvan||D||D+3||Lean D||7-May|
|Iowa||IA-03||Zach Nunn||R||R+3||Lean R||4-Jun|
|Michigan||MI-10||John James||R||R+3||Lean R||6-Aug|
|Nebraska||NE-02||Don Bacon||R||EVEN||Lean R||14-May|
|Nevada||NV-03||Susie Lee||D||D+1||Lean D||14-Jun|
|New Jersey||NJ-07||Thomas Kean Jr.||R||R+1||Tossup||4-Jun|
|New Mexico||NM-02||Gabe Vasquez||D||D+1||Tossup||7-Jun|
|New York||NY-03||George Santos||R||D+2||Lean D||23-Aug|
|New York||NY-04||Anthony D'Esposito||R||D+5||Tossup||23-Aug|
|New York||NY-17||Mike Lawler||R||D+3||Tossup||23-Aug|
|New York||NY-18||Pat Ryan||D||D+1||Lean D||23-Aug|
|New York||NY-19||Marc Molinaro||R||EVEN||Tossup||23-Aug|
|New York||NY-22||Brandon Williams||R||D+1||Tossup||23-Aug|
|North Carolina||NC-01||Don Davis||D||D+2||Lean D||17-May|
|North Carolina||NC-06||Kathy Manning||D||D+4||Tossup||17-May|
|North Carolina||NC-13||Wiley Nickel||D||R+2||Tossup||17-May|
|North Carolina||NC-14||Jeff Jackson||D||D+6||Tossup||17-May|
|Ohio||OH-01||Greg Landsman||D||D+2||Lean D||3-May|
|Virginia||VA-07||Open (Abigail Spanberger)||D||D+1||Lean D||TBD|
|Virginia||VA-02||Jen Kiggans||R||R+2||Lean R||TBD|
|Washington||WA-03||Marie Gluesenkamp Perez||D||R+5||Tossup||TBD|
|Wisconsin||WI-03||Derrick Van Orden||R||R+4||Lean R||TBD|
|Michigan||MI-08||Dan Kildee||D||R+1||Lean D||06-Aug|
Still, the 2022 midterms showed that a win in NY-03 is far from certain for Democrats. Redistricting in New York proved a boon for the GOP as they picked up four seats in Long Island.
The races for Congress in 2024 are expected to be keenly contested. Of note (in addition to NY-03) are four seats currently held by Republicans – NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22. These four are rated Tossups and are eminently “flippable.” First term Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan (NY-18) is running for reelection in a district deemed Lean D.
Some key considerations in New York center on redistricting. The state appeals court has yet to issue its decision on redrawing the maps, but the Independent Redistricting Committee is being allowed to proceed in revising the 2022 maps that favored Republicans.
Responding to the Republican showing in the midterms, the NY Democratic Party and grassroots groups working in the state are taking no vote for granted. Democratic leaders are planning a ballot measure that will enshrine abortion in the state constitution. It’s a move seen as boosting Democratic turnout, which in turn, will help the party win more Congressional and local races.
The 2024 elections will be a crucial test for both parties, and the results will have far-reaching implications for the future of democracy in the state and in the country.
Postcards – George Santos is out! Flip his old Congressional seat BLUE