Take Action New York

NY-03 (Open), NY-04 (D'Esposito), NY-17 (Lawler), NY-18 (Ryan), NY-19 (Molinaro), NY-22 (Williams)

There is an opportunity to flip five, yes five! House seats in New York. Additionally there is one competitive Democratic seat won by Freshman Rep Pat Ryan in NY-18. If Dems win these six races, New York can singularly flip the House.

The first flip could happen even before November since a special election has been called in NY-03 to replace the disgraced former Representative and Olympic-Gold-Liar George Santos. The NY Dems have tapped former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi to run in the Feb. 13 special election.
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COMPETITIVE RACES IN NEW YORK

State	District	Incumbent	Party in Power	PVI	Cook Rating	Primary Date
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	D	R+8	Lean D	20-Aug
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R	R+2	Tossup	2-Aug
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R	R+3	Tossup	2-Aug
California	CA-13	John Duarte	R	D+4	Tossup	7-Jun
California	CA-22	David Valadao	R	D+5	Tossup	7-Jun
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	R	D+4	Tossup	7-Jun
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R	R+3	Tossup	7-Jun
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	R	D+2	Lean R	7-Jun
California	CA-47	Open (Porter)	D	D+3	Lean D	7-Jun
Colorado	CO-03	Lauren Boebert	R	R+7	Tossup	28-Jun
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	D	EVEN	Tossup	28-Jun
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D	D+3	Lean D	13-Aug
Florida	FL-05	John Rutherford	R	R+11*	Tossup	20-Aug
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D	D+2	Lean D	19-Mar
Indiana	IN-01	Frank J. Mrvan	D	D+3	Lean D	7-May
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R	R+3	Lean R	4-Jun
Louisiana	LA-05	Julia Letlow	R	R+17	Tossup	5-Nov
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	D	R+6	Tossup	18-Jun
Michigan	MI-07	Open (Slotkin)	D	R+2	Tossup	6-Aug
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R	R+3	Lean R	6-Aug
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	R	EVEN	Lean R	14-May
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D	D+1	Lean D	14-Jun
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean Jr.	R	R+1	Tossup	4-Jun
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D	D+1	Tossup	7-Jun
New York	NY-03	George Santos	R	D+2	Lean D	23-Aug
New York	NY-04	Anthony D'Esposito	R	D+5	Tossup	23-Aug
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	R	D+3	Tossup	23-Aug
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D	D+1	Lean D	23-Aug
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R	EVEN	Tossup	23-Aug
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	R	D+1	Tossup	23-Aug
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	D	D+2	Lean D	17-May
North Carolina	NC-06	Kathy Manning	D	D+4	Tossup	17-May
North Carolina	NC-13	Wiley Nickel	D	R+2	Tossup	17-May
North Carolina	NC-14	Jeff Jackson	D	D+6	Tossup	17-May
Ohio	OH-01	Greg Landsman	D	D+2	Lean D	3-May
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	D	R+1	Tossup	3-May
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	R	D+2	Tossup	17-May
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	D	R+2	Tossup	17-May
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	D	R+4	Tossup	17-May
Virginia	VA-07	Open (Abigail Spanberger)	D	D+1	Lean D	TBD
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R	R+2	Lean R	TBD
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	D	R+5	Tossup	TBD
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R	R+4	Lean R	TBD
Michigan	MI-08	Dan Kildee	D	R+1	Lean D	06-Aug

NY RACES CANVASSING OPPORTUNITIES

Still, the 2022 midterms showed that a win in NY-03 is far from certain for Democrats. Redistricting in New York proved a boon for the GOP as they picked up four seats in Long Island.

The races for Congress in 2024 are expected to be keenly contested. Of note (in addition to NY-03) are four seats currently held by Republicans – NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22. These four are rated Tossups and are eminently “flippable.” First term Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan (NY-18) is running for reelection in a district deemed Lean D.

Some key considerations in New York center on redistricting. The state appeals court has yet to issue its decision on redrawing the maps, but the Independent Redistricting Committee is being allowed to proceed in revising the 2022 maps that favored Republicans.

Responding to the Republican showing in the midterms, the NY Democratic Party and grassroots groups working in the state are taking no vote for granted. Democratic leaders are planning a ballot measure that will enshrine abortion in the state constitution. It’s a move seen as boosting Democratic turnout, which in turn, will help the party win more Congressional and local races.

The 2024 elections will be a crucial test for both parties, and the results will have far-reaching implications for the future of democracy in the state and in the country.