Take Action: California

CA-13 Hold (Gray - D); CA-22 Flip (Valadao - R), CA-45 Hold (Tran - D), CA-48 Flip (Issa - R)

Under Democratic leadership, California voters approved a new redistricting plan that may yield as many as four additional Democratic Congressional seats. While California has the world’s fourth largest economy, one in three likely voters identify the cost of living and inflation as major concerns with 7 in 10 voters feeling that their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. Tariffs have reduced the state’s trade with its top trade partner, China, by nearly 7% in the past year. Soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles fell 80%. Authoritarian immigration practices are stirring fear and creating employment issues for business owners.

California has a strong Democratic voting population, but there are pockets of conservative communities. Two Republican districts – CA-22 and CA-48 – are possible flips. In addition, CA-13 and CA-45 have Democratic incumbents that need help to hold their seats.

COMPETITIVE CA RACES
StateDistrictIncumbentParty in PowerPartisan LeanCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert)RepublicanR+1Toss Up21-Jul-26Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRepublicanEVENToss Up21-Jul-26Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$5,083,547 Yes
CaliforniaCA-13Adam GrayDemocraticD+2Lean D2-Jun-26Adam GrayH2CA13115$3,283,978
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRepublicanD+1Toss Up2-Jun-26David ValadaoH2CA20094$4,150,872 Yes
CaliforniaCA-45Derek TranDemocraticD+3Lean D2-Jun-26Derek TranH4CA45170$3,860,528
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa)RepublicanD+2Lean D2-Jun-26
ColoradoCO-08Gabe EvansRepublicanEVENToss Up2-Jun-26Gabe EvansH4CO08034$4,259,928 Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy CastorDemocraticD+5Lean R18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$876,012
FloridaFL-22Lois FrankelDemocraticD+4Lean R18-Aug-26Lois FrankelH2FL14053$1,855,772
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman SchultzDemocraticD+5Toss Up18-Aug-26Debbie Wasserman SchultzH4FL20023$2,502,689
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublicanR+4Toss Up2-Jun-26Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$5,748,767
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRepublicanR+2Toss Up2-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$3,080,897 Zach NunnH2IA03119$3,882,730
MichiganMI-07Tom BarrettRepublicanEVENToss Up4-Aug-26Tom BarrettH2MI07123$5,033,912
MichiganMI-08Kristen McDonald RivetDemocraticR+1Lean D4-Aug-26Kristen McDonald RivetH4MI08218$4,384,972
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James)RepublicanR+3Lean R4-Aug-26
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDemocraticR+5Lean R3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$3,232,086 Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$2,743,029
NebraskaNE-02OPEN (Don Bacon)RepublicanD+3Lean D12-May-26Denise PowellH6NE02174$1,617,997Brinker HardingH6NE02208$1,270,418
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanRepublicanEVENToss Up2-Jun-26Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$4,374,665
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDemocraticEVENLean D2-Jun-26Gabe VasquezH2NM02191$2,883,218
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDemocraticD+1Lean D9-Jun-26Susie LeeH6NV04020$3,498,064
New YorkNY-03Tom SuozziDemocraticEVENLean D23-Jun-26Tom SuozziH6NY03247$4,110,037
New YorkNY-04Laura GillenDemocraticD+2Lean D23-Jun-26Laura GillenH2NY04244$4,184,750
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRepublicanD+1Toss Up23-Jun-26Mike LawlerH2NY17162$6,731,833
New YorkNY-19Josh RileyDemocraticD+1Lean D23-Jun-26Josh RileyH8NY22177$3,955,385
OhioOH-01Greg LandsmanDemocraticR+1Lean D5-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$3,645,067 Eric ConroyH6OH01138$853,604
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturDemocraticR+5Toss Up5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$3,385,266 Derek MerrinH4OH09169$773,454
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzieRepublicanR+1Toss Up19-May-26Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$3,726,348
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob BresnahanRepublicanR+4Toss Up19-May-26Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$4,519,623
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryRepublicanR+3Toss Up19-May-26Scott PerryH2PA04135$4,415,918
TexasTX-28Henry CuellarDemocraticR+3Lean D3-Mar-26Henry CuellarH2TX23082$1,620,505 Tano TijerinaH6TX28124$937,221
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezDemocraticR+3Toss Up3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$2,907,549 Eric FloresH6TX34080$2,158,799
VirginiaVA-01Robert WittmanRepublicanD+5Lean R16-Jun-26Robert WittmanH8VA01147$3,398,634
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRepublicanD+3Toss Up16-Jun-26Jen KiggansH2VA02064$4,746,033
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDemocraticR+2Toss Up4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$4,548,761
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRepublicanR+3Toss Up11-Aug-26Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$5,677,515

Throughout California, economic issues coupled with strong voter turnout are keys to Democratic success.

  • Republican Incumbent Congressman David Valadao, R CA-22,. voted for the Big Ugly Bill despite representing a district where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 12 % and two-thirds of his constituents rely on Medi-Cal for their health care. He repeatedly promised not to vote for any reductions in the program.
  • In CA-22 where 74% are Hispanic/Latino, the economic situation is stark –  29.5% of children live in households with incomes ≤ 100% of the federal poverty level vs 29.4% nationally; 247.3 deaths per 100K from cardiovascular disease vs 201 per 100K nationally; 38.5% of public-school students were chronically absent vs 29.4 nationally; 64.1% of population lives in a designated primary care shortage area vs 7.8% nationally; food insecurity impacts 32.3% adults vs 16% nationally.
  • In CA-48, incumbent Republican Rep. Darrill Issa, defended Trump against impeachment and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2025 Issa filed legislation to protect Trump’s agenda from judicial challenges.
  • CA-48 voters consider housing costs to be a major issue with 57.3% of households spending more than 30% of income on housing vs 49.9% nationally.
  • In CA13 Adam Gray, a moderate Democrat, won the 2024 election by less than 1% and will be targeted for a Republican flip in 2026.
    Serving on two committees, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gray was appointed whip of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition and is a member of the New Democratic Coalition caucus.
  • Gray’s recent comments outline his focus “Going forward, my focus is simple: lower health care costs and protect the people I represent from becoming pawns in political games.
  • In CA45, Derek Tran won the 2024 election by just 0.2%, and his district is considered a 2026 Democratic battleground.
  • The son of a Vietnamese refugee, a veteran and a small business owner, Tran is a member of the House Armed Services Committee and House Small Business Committee where he focuses on national security, economic issues, consumer protections, and access to capital for small business owners and entrepreneurs. His work as an attorney focused on consumer and worker issues.

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