Take Action Wisconsin

Senate (Baldwin), WI-03 (Flip)

Wisconsin remains a crucial political battleground in 2024. Its diverse electorate, along with its mix of urban and rural voters, often leads to tight races both on the local and national stage. The state of Wisconsin, with its 10 Electoral College votes, could again be the tipping point in the Presidential election. In 2020, Biden won WI by only 20,000 votes or 0.63%, while in 2016 Clinton lost it by a similar margin. The stakes cannot be higher and the margin cannot be tighter. So every vote counts!

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SENATE RACE

StateIncumbentPVICook RatingPrimary DateDemocratic CandidateRepublican Candidate
ArizonaOPEN -- (Sinema (I))R+2TossupJul-30Ruben Gallego*
NevadaJacky Rosen (D)EVENLean DJun-11Jacky Rosen
PennsylvaniaBob Casey (D)R+2Lean DApr-23Bob CaseyDave McCormick
WisconsinTammy Baldwin (D)R+2Lean DAug-06Tammy Baldwin
MichiganOPEN -- (Stabinow (D))EVENLean DAug-06Elissa Slotkin*
OhioSherrod Brown (D)R+6TossupMar-19Sherrod BrownBernie Moreno
MontanaJon Tester (D)R+11Lean DJun-04Jon Tester
COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

StateDistrictIncumbentPartyPartisan LeanCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaDR+8Lean D20-AugMary Peltola$1,774,747
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertRR+2Toss Up30-JulDavid Schweikert$901,940
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRR+3Toss Up30-JulJuan Ciscomani$2,130,200
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteRD+4Toss Up5-MarAdam Gray$468,385John Duarte$1,487,119
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRD+5Toss Up5-MarRudy Salas$122,207David Valadao$1,323,307
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaRD+4Toss Up5-MarGeorge Whitesides$2,508,524Mike Garcia$1,560,751
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertRR+3Toss Up5-MarWill Rollins$2,424,885Ken Calvert$2,334,274
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelRD+2Lean R5-MarDerek Tran$66,630Michelle Steel$2,932,122
CaliforniaCA-47Open (Porter)DD+3Lean D5-MarDavid Min$224,079Scott Baugh$1,707,928
ColoradoCO-03Open (Boebert)RR+7Lean R25-Jun
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoDEVENToss Up25-JunYadira Caraveo$1,359,808
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesDD+3Lean D13-AugJahana Hayes$1,030,642
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRR+3Lean R4-JunZach Nunn$1,594,585
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenDD+2Lean D19-MarEric Sorensen$1,631,531Joe McGraw$218,150
IndianaIN-01Frank MrvanDD+3Lean D7-MayFrank Mrvan$823,242
MaineME-02Jared GoldenDR+6Toss Up11-JunJared Golden$1,436,515
MichiganMI-07Open (Slotkin)DR+2Toss Up6-Aug
MichiganMI-08Open (Kildee)DR+1Toss Up6-Aug
MichiganMI-10John JamesRR+3Lean R6-AugJohn James$2,346,810
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDR+1Toss Up5-MarDon Davis$961,681Laurie Buckhout$314,724
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconREVENLean R14-MayDon Bacon$1,547,517
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanRR+1Toss Up4-JunThomas Kean$2,110,338
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDD+1Toss Up4-JunGabe Vasquez$1,247,093
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDD+1Lean D11-JunSusie Lee$1,584,749
New YorkNY-04Anthony DEspositoRD+5Toss Up25-JunAnthony DEsposito$1,247,942
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRD+3Toss Up25-JunMike Lawler$2,500,120
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanDD+2Lean D25-JunPat Ryan$2,211,915
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroRR+1Toss Up25-JunMarc Molinaro$1,618,917
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsRD+3Lean D25-JunBrandon Williams$913,071
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturDR+3Toss Up19-MarMarcy Kaptur$1,324,671
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesDR+1Toss Up19-MarEmilia Sykes$1,112,476Kevin Coughlin$248,119
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerRD+2Toss Up21-MayLori Chavez-DeRemer$1,608,022
OregonOR-06Andrea SalinasDD+4Lean D21-MayAndrea Salinas$1,097,894
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildDR+2Toss Up23-AprSusan Wild$1,578,262Ryan Mackenzie$137,616
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightDR+4Toss Up23-AprMatt Cartwright$2,012,463Robert Bresnahan$636,332
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryRR+5Lean R23-AprJanelle Stelson$140,288Scott Perry$547,159
PennsylvaniaPA-17Chris DeluzioDEVENLean D23-AprChris Deluzio$986,156Rob Mercuri$281,539
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezDD+9Lean D28-MayVicente Gonzalez$1,208,034
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRR+2Lean R18-JunJen Kiggans$1,504,729
VirginiaVA-07Open (Spanberger)DD+1Lean D18-Jun
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDR+5Toss Up6-AugMarie Gluesenkamp Perez$2,181,055
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRR+4Lean R13-AugDerrick Van Orden$1,617,321

U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won her 2018 race by more than 10 percentage points in 2018. But this year, the Cook Political Report rates the race as Lean D. Republicans are angling to oust Baldwin, and CNN has named her one of the candidates whose seat is among 10 most likely to flip.

As it now stands, Baldwin has two rather weak Republican opponents – a County Board Supervisor and a 40-year-old college student. And Baldwin has garnered support not just from Democrats but from independent voters throughout the state due to her reputation as a consensus builder. The state Republican Party chief says a top-tier GOP candidate will emerge before the primary, but Democrats in Wisconsin are taking no votes for granted and are campaigning even in red districts. Stay tuned.

In the U.S. House, WI-03, now held by a one-term Republican, is flippable for Democrats since the district is rated only Lean R, and the possibility of redistricting could change the tenor of its electorate. The current WI-03 representative opened and operated the Butternut Café after retiring as a Navy Seal. The Democratic primary has four candidates running, including Katrina Shankland, an 11-year member of the Wisconsin State Assembly.

The uproar over the state’s legislative districts is stirring the political pot even more. The Wisconsin Supreme Court threw out the maps that resulted in a GOP-controlled legislature and GOP gains in U.S. House races. Consultants hired by the liberal-leaning court are reviewing seven newly drawn maps.

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Resources

Coordinator(s):
Steve Vogel
Ben Lawent
James Arena-DeRosa

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