Take Action Wisconsin

Senate (Baldwin), WI-03 (Flip)

Wisconsin remains a crucial political battleground in 2024. Its diverse electorate, along with its mix of urban and rural voters, often leads to tight races both on the local and national stage. The state of Wisconsin, with its 10 Electoral College votes, could again be the tipping point in the Presidential election. In 2020, Biden won WI by only 20,000 votes or 0.63%, while in 2016 Clinton lost it by a similar margin. The stakes cannot be higher and the margin cannot be tighter. So every vote counts!

Read more below:


StateIncumbentPVICook RatingPrimary DateDemocratic CandidateRepublican Candidate
ArizonaOPEN -- (Sinema (I))R+2TossupJul-30Ruben Gallego*
NevadaJacky Rosen (D)EVENLean DJun-11Jacky Rosen
PennsylvaniaBob Casey (D)R+2Lean DApr-23Bob CaseyDave McCormick
WisconsinTammy Baldwin (D)R+2Lean DAug-06Tammy Baldwin
MichiganOPEN -- (Stabinow (D))EVENLean DAug-06Elissa Slotkin*
OhioSherrod Brown (D)R+6TossupMar-19Sherrod BrownBernie Moreno
MontanaJon Tester (D)R+11TossupJun-04Jon TesterTim Sheehy

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanParty in PowerCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaR+8DLean DAug-20Mary Peltola$2,574,831
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertR+2RToss UpJul-30David Schweikert$1,192,101
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniR+3RToss UpJul-30Juan Ciscomani$2,452,350
CaliforniaCA-47OPEN (Porter)D+3DLean DMar-5David Min$424,839Scott Baugh$1,903,809
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteD+4RToss UpMar-5Adam Gray$1,150,422John Duarte$1,813,336
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoD+5RToss UpMar-5Rudy Salas$754,435David Valadao$1,640,960
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaD+4RToss UpMar-5George Whitesides$3,047,188Mike Garcia$1,754,767
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertR+3RToss UpMar-5Will Rollins$3,162,026Ken Calvert$2,639,377
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelD+2RLean RMar-5Derek Tran$195,382Michelle Steel$3,218,738
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoEVENDToss UpJun-25Yadira Caraveo$1,997,583
ColoradoCO-03OPEN (Boebert)R+7RLean RJun-25Adam Frisch$5,814,105Jeff Hurd$527,737
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesD+3DLean DAug-13Jahana Hayes$1,526,492
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenD+2DLean DMar-19Eric Sorensen$2,157,618Joseph McGraw$325,191
IndianaIN-01Frank MrvanD+3DLean DMay-7Frank Mrvan$1,238,183Randy Niemeyer$295,575
IowaIA-03Zach NunnR+3RLean RJun-4Lanon Baccam$1,153,969Zach Nunn$1,847,579
MaineME-02Jared GoldenR+6DToss UpJun-11Jared Golden$2,156,439
MichiganMI-07OPEN (Slotkin)R+2DToss UpAug-6
MichiganMI-08OPEN (Kildee)R+1DToss UpAug-6
MichiganMI-10John JamesR+3RLean RAug-6John James$2,958,581
MinnesotaMN-02Angie CraigD+1DLean DAug-13Angie Craig$2,822,415
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconEVENRLean RMay-14Tony Vargas$1,641,255Don Bacon$1,727,525
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeD+1DLean DJun-11Susie Lee$2,179,266Drew Johnson$211,437
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanR+1RToss UpJun-4Sue Altman$913,939Thomas Kean$2,395,291
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezD+1DToss UpJun-4Gabe Vasquez$1,805,859Yvette Herrell$1,044,795
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanD+2DLean DJun-25Pat Ryan$2,768,926Alison Esposito$437,127
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsD+3RLean DJun-25John Mannion$372,834Brandon Williams$1,080,376
New YorkNY-04Anthony DEspositoD+5RToss UpJun-25Laura Gillen$879,583Anthony DEsposito$1,363,618
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerD+3RToss UpJun-25Mondaire Jones$3,115,165Mike Lawler$3,022,485
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroR+1RToss UpJun-25Josh Riley$2,508,263Marc Molinaro$1,767,264
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisR+1DToss UpMar-5Don Davis$1,845,760Laurie Buckhout$239,479
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturR+3DToss UpMar-19Marcy Kaptur$1,893,847Derek Merrin$88,166
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesR+1DToss UpMar-19Emilia Sykes$1,649,815Kevin Coughlin$76,192
OregonOR-06Andrea SalinasD+4DLean DMay-21Andrea Salinas$1,601,364Mike Erickson$140,962
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerD+2RLean RMay-21Janelle Bynum$560,821Lori Chavez-DeRemer$1,878,340
PennsylvaniaPA-17Chris DeluzioEVENDLean DApr-23Chris Deluzio$1,491,729Rob Mercuri$540,528
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildR+2DToss UpApr-23Susan Wild$2,662,153Ryan MacKenzie$126,142
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightR+4DToss UpApr-23Matt Cartwright$3,151,047Robert Bresnahan$834,919
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryR+5RLean RApr-23Janelle Stelson$191,905Scott Perry$513,461
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezD+9DLean DMay-28Vicente Gonzalez$1,452,143Mayra Flores$786,597
VirginiaVA-07OPEN (Spanberger)D+1DLean DJun-18Eugene Vindman$1,841,459Derrick Anderson$581,005
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansR+2RLean RJun-18Missy Cotter Smasal$299,078Jen Kiggans$1,785,014
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezR+5DToss UpAug-6Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$3,028,214
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenR+4RLean RAug-13Derrick Van Orden$1,946,820

U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won her 2018 race by more than 10 percentage points in 2018. But this year, the Cook Political Report rates the race as Lean D. Republicans are angling to oust Baldwin, and CNN has named her one of the candidates whose seat is among 10 most likely to flip.

As it now stands, Baldwin has two rather weak Republican opponents – a County Board Supervisor and a 40-year-old college student. And Baldwin has garnered support not just from Democrats but from independent voters throughout the state due to her reputation as a consensus builder. The state Republican Party chief says a top-tier GOP candidate will emerge before the primary, but Democrats in Wisconsin are taking no votes for granted and are campaigning even in red districts. Stay tuned.

In the U.S. House, WI-03, now held by a one-term Republican, is flippable for Democrats since the district is rated only Lean R, and the possibility of redistricting could change the tenor of its electorate. The current WI-03 representative opened and operated the Butternut Café after retiring as a Navy Seal. The Democratic primary has four candidates running, including Katrina Shankland, an 11-year member of the Wisconsin State Assembly.

The uproar over the state’s legislative districts is stirring the political pot even more. The Wisconsin Supreme Court threw out the maps that resulted in a GOP-controlled legislature and GOP gains in U.S. House races. Consultants hired by the liberal-leaning court are reviewing seven newly drawn maps.



Steve Vogel
Ben Lawent
James Arena-DeRosa