Take Action Arizona

Name: DemCast Democracy Briefing
Start: 2024-12-02T16:00:00-05:00
End: 2024-12-02T17:00:00-05:00
Location: virtual

Senate (Open), AZ-01 (Flip - Schweikert), AZ-06 (Flip - Ciscomani)

Ruben Gallego, who represents Arizona’s 3rd Congressional district in Congress, won the Democratic primary to run for the open Senate seat against election-ldenying but high-profile Republican Kari Lake. Gallego has held a strong lead in key polls, but the Trump-backed Lake has enjoyed high yield fundraisers at Mar-a-Lago.

In House races, two districts are ripe for flips: In AZ-1, Dr. Amish Shah, an emergency room physician who has served for five years in the Arizona legislature, will take on the Republican incumbent. In AZ-6, environmental attorney and former State Senator Kirsten Engel is again mounting a strong campaign against the one-term Republican incumbent, whom she nearly defeated in 2022.
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SENATE RACE

State	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
Arizona	OPEN -- (Sinema (I))	R+2	Lean D	Lean D	Jul-30	Ruben Gallego	Kari Lake
Nevada	Jacky Rosen (D)	EVEN	Lean D	Lean D	Jun-11	Jacky Rosen	Sam Brown
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey (D)	R+2	Tossup	Lean D	Apr-23	Bob Casey	Dave McCormick
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin (D)	R+2	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-13	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde
Michigan	OPEN -- (Stabinow (D))	EVEN	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-06	Elissa Slotkin	Mike Rogers
Ohio	Sherrod Brown (D)	R+6	Tossup	Tossup	Mar-19	Sherrod Brown	Bernie Moreno
Montana	Jon Tester (D)	R+11	Lean R	Lean R	Jun-04	Jon Tester	Tim Sheehy
Nebraska	Deb Fischer (R)	R+13	Lean R	Lean R	May-14	Dan Osborn (Ind)	Deb Fischer
Texas	Ted Cruz (R)	R+5	Lean R	Likely R	Mar-05	Colin Allred	Ted Cruz

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

State	District	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Party in Power	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	$ Raised (Rep)	Fundraising Target
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	R+8	D	Tossup	Aug-20	Mary Peltola	$11,383,692	Multiple	N/A
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+2	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Amish Shah	$5,499,151	David Schweikert	$3,806,313	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Kirsten Engel	$7,713,062	Juan Ciscomani	$6,281,198
California	CA-47	OPEN (Porter)	D+3	D	Lean D	Mar-5	David Min	$6,121,731	Scott Baugh	$4,134,243	Yes
California	CA-13	John Duarte	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Adam Gray	$5,416,262	John Duarte	$4,147,092	Yes
California	CA-22	David Valadao	D+5	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Rudy Salas	$5,772,500	David Valadao	$4,605,340	Yes
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	George Whitesides	$9,258,624	Mike Garcia	$5,978,261
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R+3	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Will Rollins	$11,510,839	Ken Calvert	$7,531,776
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	D+2	R	Tossup	Mar-5	Derek Tran	$5,000,888	Michelle Steel	$9,441,899
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	EVEN	D	Toss Up	Jun-25	Yadira Caraveo	$7,303,139	Gabe Evans	$2,297,545
Colorado	CO-03	OPEN (Boebert)	R+7	R	Likely R	Jun-25	Adam Frisch	$16,502,296	Jeff Hurd	$2,410,147
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Jahana Hayes	$3,966,896	George Logan	$2,633,764
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+2	D	Likely D	Mar-19	Eric Sorensen	$4,721,699	Joseph McGraw	$1,385,103
Indiana	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	D+3	D	Likely D	May-7	Frank Mrvan	$3,055,858	Randy Niemeyer	$1,024,067
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jun-4	Lanon Baccam	$4,826,753	Zach Nunn	$5,227,097
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	R+6	D	Toss Up	Jun-11	Jared Golden	$7,062,983	Austin Theriault	$3,209,611
Michigan	MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin)	R+2	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Curtis Hertel	$7,045,643	Tom Barrett	$4,622,111
Michigan	MI-08	OPEN (Kildee)	R+1	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Kristen McDonald Rivet	$5,255,715	Paul Junge	$5,114,278
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R+3	R	Lean R	Aug-6	Carl Marlinga	$2,596,072	John James	$8,287,451
Minnesota	MN-02	Angie Craig	D+1	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Angie Craig	$7,852,933	Joe Teirab	$2,966,229
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	EVEN	R	Tossup	May-14	Tony Vargas	$6,746,766	Don Bacon	$5,944,820
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-11	Susie Lee	$5,667,750	Drew Johnson	$1,296,245
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean	R+1	R	Lean R	Jun-4	Sue Altman	$5,638,730	Thomas Kean	$5,558,101
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D+1	D	Toss Up	Jun-4	Gabe Vasquez	$6,483,548	Yvette Herrell	$3,958,577
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Pat Ryan	$7,543,210	Alison Esposito	$2,176,423
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	D+3	R	Lean D	Jun-25	John Mannion	$3,555,502	Brandon Williams	$3,938,363
New York	NY-04	Anthony DEsposito	D+5	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Laura Gillen	$6,127,580	Anthony DEsposito	$4,419,902
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+3	R	Lean R	Jun-25	Mondaire Jones	$9,057,157	Mike Lawler	$7,777,943
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Josh Riley	$8,760,534	Marc Molinaro	$5,119,951
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-5	Don Davis	$5,599,492	Laurie Buckhout	$4,279,685
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+3	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Marcy Kaptur	$4,483,047	Derek Merrin	$1,480,664
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	R+1	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Emilia Sykes	$4,949,666	Kevin Coughlin	$1,443,635
Oregon	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+4	D	Lean D	May-21	Andrea Salinas	$5,007,770	Mike Erickson	$544,612
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	D+2	R	Tossup	May-21	Janelle Bynum	$6,436,776	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	$5,698,142
Pennsylvania	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	EVEN	D	Lean D	Apr-23	Chris Deluzio	$4,700,672	Rob Mercuri	$1,681,625
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	R+2	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Susan Wild	$8,160,815	Ryan MacKenzie	$1,507,653
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	R+4	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Matt Cartwright	$8,124,143	Robert Bresnahan	$4,124,363
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry	R+5	R	Toss Up	Apr-23	Janelle Stelson	$5,379,810	Scott Perry	$3,862,884
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	D+9	D	Lean D	May-28	Vicente Gonzalez	$2,853,782	Mayra Flores	$6,306,400
Virginia	VA-07	OPEN (Spanberger)	D+1	D	Tossup	Jun-18	Eugene Vindman	$15,686,040	Derrick Anderson	$2,851,582
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R+2	R	Lean R	Jun-18	Missy Cotter Smasal	$2,784,150	Jen Kiggans	$5,969,764
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	R+5	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	$10,699,161	Joe Kent	$2,311,352
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+4	R	Lean R	Aug-13	Rebecca Cooke	$5,300,456	Derrick Van Orden	$6,627,347

A state that turned purple when it delivered its 11 electoral votes to Biden-Harris in 2020, Arizona is fueled by blue energy at every level. Overturning the 1864 abortion ban law was a big first step. Now abortion rights activists have put the issue on the November ballot. In the state legislature itself, just two additional Democratic wins in the House and two in the Senate will claim the majority.

Arizona boasts two of the fastest growing state legislative districts in the country. Most newcomers are young, professional, and Democratic. Meanwhile, AZ State Attorney General Kris Mayes’ investigation of the 2020 fake electors tied to Trump has led to Grand Jury charges.

Kari Lake, the failed gubernatorial candidate, and a bevy of other MAGA folk are roiling on the right while Volunteer Blue, along with its partners like Activate America and Swing Left, have targeted two currently Republican held House seats to flip—the 1st Congressional district, which includes Scottsdale, and the 6th anchored in Tucson.

The strategy in Arizona is to boost voter registration everywhere and reach out to low-propensity independent and Democratic voters throughout the state to increase voter turnout.

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