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VA07 (Open) Spanberger (D), VA02 (Flip) Kiggans (R)

The Cook PVI (how partisan a congressional district or state is) for the state of Virginia is D+3. In 2023, Democrats managed to flip the VA legislature on the strength of abortion, which continues to be an issue for voters.

Two competitive House races have emerged in 2024. VA-07 (PVI of D+1 and rated Lean D), which is now open since the Democratic incumbent, Abigail Spanberger, is running for governor in 2025. Also VA-02 (PVI R+2, rated Lean R) is a potential flip. Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans unseated Elaine Luria in 2022. Former Navy surface warfare officer Missy Cotter Smasal is running as a Democrat. U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine is also running, but it's considered a Solid Democratic seat.

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StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanParty in PowerCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaR+8DLean DAug-20Mary Peltola$2,574,831
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertR+2RToss UpJul-30David Schweikert$1,192,101
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniR+3RToss UpJul-30Juan Ciscomani$2,452,350
CaliforniaCA-47OPEN (Porter)D+3DLean DMar-5David Min $424,839Scott Baugh$1,903,809
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteD+4RToss UpMar-5Adam Gray$1,150,422John Duarte$1,813,336
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoD+5RToss UpMar-5Rudy Salas$754,435David Valadao$1,640,960
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaD+4RToss UpMar-5George Whitesides$3,047,188Mike Garcia$1,754,767
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertR+3RToss UpMar-5Will Rollins$3,162,026Ken Calvert$2,639,377
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelD+2RLean RMar-5Derek Tran$195,382Michelle Steel$3,218,738
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoEVENDToss UpJun-25Yadira Caraveo$1,997,583
ColoradoCO-03OPEN (Boebert)R+7RLean RJun-25OPEN (Boebert)
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesD+3DLean DAug-13Jahana Hayes$1,526,492
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenD+2DLean DMar-19Eric Sorensen$2,157,618Joseph McGraw$325,191
IndianaIN-01Frank MrvanD+3DLean DMay-7Frank Mrvan$1,238,183
IowaIA-03Zach NunnR+3RLean RJun-4Zach Nunn$1,847,579
MaineME-02Jared GoldenR+6DToss UpJun-11Jared Golden$2,156,439
MichiganMI-07OPEN (Slotkin)R+2DToss UpAug-6
MichiganMI-08OPEN (Kildee)R+1DToss UpAug-6
MichiganMI-10John JamesR+3RLean RAug-6John James$2,958,581
MinnesotaMN-02Angie CraigD+1DLean DAug-13Angie Craig$2,822,415
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconEVENRLean RMay-14Tony Vargas$1,641,255Don Bacon$1,727,525
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeD+1DLean DJun-11Susie Lee$2,179,266
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanR+1RToss UpJun-4Thomas Kean$2,395,291
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezD+1DToss UpJun-4Gabe Vasquez$1,805,859
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanD+2DLean DJun-25Pat Ryan$2,768,926
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsD+3RLean DJun-25Brandon Williams$1,080,376
New YorkNY-04Anthony DEspositoD+5RToss UpJun-25Laura Gillen$879,583Anthony DEsposito$1,363,618
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerD+3RToss UpJun-25Mondaire Jones$3,115,165Mike Lawler$3,022,485
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroR+1RToss UpJun-25Josh Riley$2,508,263Marc Molinaro$1,767,264
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisR+1DToss UpMar-5Don Davis$1,845,760
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturR+3DToss UpMar-19Marcy Kaptur$1,893,847
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesR+1DToss UpMar-19Emilia Sykes$1,649,815
OregonOR-06Andrea SalinasD+4DLean DMay-21Andrea Salinas$1,601,364
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerD+2RLean RMay-21Janelle Bynum$560,821Lori Chavez-DeRemer$1,878,340
PennsylvaniaPA-17Chris DeluzioEVENDLean DApr-23Chris Deluzio$1,491,729
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildR+2DToss UpApr-23Susan Wild$2,662,153
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightR+4DToss UpApr-23Matt Cartwright$3,151,047
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryR+5RLean RApr-23Scott Perry$513,461
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezD+9DLean DMay-28Vicente Gonzalez$1,452,143
VirginiaVA-07OPEN (Spanberger)D+1DLean DJun-18
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansR+2RLean RJun-18Jen Kiggans$1,785,014
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezR+5DToss UpAug-6Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$3,028,214
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenR+4RLean RAug-13Derrick Van Orden$1,946,820

Samasal has picked up some key endorsements before the June 18 primary, including: Spanberger, U.S. Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D), U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) and former Gov. Ralph Northam (D).

Issues that are likely to be flashpoints in the 2024 election are:

  • Reproductive Rights: The governance stakes have focused on reproductive rights, particularly Republican support for limits. The 2023 election showed broad support for abortion access.
  • Social Security and Medicare: These programs are a major point of contention between Democrats and Republicans.
  • Education: Republicans’s focus on targeting educational curriculum and parents’ rights to decisions made by schools. However, book-banning candidates fared poorly in 2023, so the tactic may backfire.
  • Culture Wars: Particularly those targeting the LGBTQ community, are also expected to be a major issue in the 2024 election for both parties.

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