Take Action in Virginia

VA02 (Flip) Kiggans (R), VA07 (Hold) Vindman (D)

Virginia is cementing itself as a midterms bellwether again. Democrats are capitalizing on the anti-Trump sentiment due to cuts in federal services, axing of federal workers, and upcoming pain likely at empty ports due to draconian tariffs.

The Virginia governor’s race, November 2025, pits former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, D, against Republican Lt.Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. One U.S. House district is shaping up as a possible flip – VA-02, where Republican incumbent Jennifer Kiggans, VA-02, has ducked meetings with constituents who want to voice their concerns about cuts affected by the administration’s budget.

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

StateDistrictIncumbentParty in PowerPartisan LeanCook RatingPrimary DateDem CandidateRep Candidate
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert)RepublicanR+1Toss Up4-Aug-26David SchweikertYes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRepublicanEVENToss Up4-Aug-26Juan CiscomaniYes
CaliforniaCA-13Adam GrayDemocraticR+1Toss Up2-Jun-26Adam Gray
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRepublicanR+1Lean R2-Jun-26David ValadaoYes
CaliforniaCA-48Darrell IssaRepublicanR+7Toss Up2-Jun-26
ColoradoCO-08Gabe EvansRepublicanEVENToss Up2-Jun-26Gabe EvansYes
FloridaFL-07Cory MillsRepublicanR+5Solid R18-Aug-26Cory Mills
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina LunaRepublicanR+5Likely R18-Aug-26Anna Paulina Luna
FloridaFL-23Jared MoskowitzDemocraticD+2Lean D18-Aug-26Jared Moskowitz
FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira SalazarRepublicanR+6Solid R18-Aug-26Maria Elvira Salazar
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublicanR+4Toss Up2-Jun-26Mariannette Miller-Meeks
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson)RepublicanR+4Likely R2-Jun-26
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRepublicanR+2Lean R2-Jun-26Zach Nunn
KentuckyKY-06Andy BarrRepublicanR+7Solid R19-May-26Andy Barr
MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden)DemocraticR+4Toss Up9-Jun-26
MichiganMI-04Bill HuizengaRepublicanR+3Likely R4-Aug-26Bill Huizenga
MichiganMI-07Tom BarrettRepublicanEVENToss Up4-Aug-26Tom Barrett
MichiganMI-08Kristen McDonald RivetDemocraticR+1Lean D4-Aug-26Kristen McDonald Rivet
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James)RepublicanR+3Lean R4-Aug-26
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDemocraticR+1Likely R3-Mar-26Don Davis
NebraskaNE-02OPEN (Don Bacon)RepublicanD+3Lean D12-May-26
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanRepublicanEVENLean R2-Jun-26Thomas Kean
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDemocraticEVENToss Up2-Jun-26Gabe Vasquez
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDemocraticD+1Lean D9-Jun-26Susie Lee
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRepublicanD+1Lean R23-Jun-26Mike Lawler
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturDemocraticR+3Toss Up5-May-26Marcy Kaptur
PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian FitzpatrickRepublicanD+1Likely R19-May-26Brian Fitzpatrick
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzieRepublicanR+1Toss Up19-May-26Ryan MacKenzie
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob BresnahanRepublicanR+4Lean R19-May-26Rob Bresnahan
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryRepublicanR+3Toss Up19-May-26Scott Perry
TexasTX-28Henry CuellarDemocraticR+2Toss Up3-Mar-26Henry Cuellar
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezDemocraticEVENLean R3-Mar-26Vicente Gonzalez
VirginiaVA-01Rob WittmanRepublicanR+3Lean R16-Jun-26Rob Wittman
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRepublicanEVENLean R16-Jun-26Jen Kiggans
VirginiaVA-07Eugene VindmanDemocraticD+2Lean D16-Jun-26Eugene Vindman
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDemocraticR+2Toss Up4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
WisconsinWI-01Bryan SteilRepublicanR+1Likely R11-Aug-26Bryan Steil
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRepublicanR+3Toss Up11-Aug-26Derrick Van Orden
  • Republican Kiggans also has taken heat for her defense of tariffs and other Trump executive orders. Cook deems the race is Lean Republican, but it’s a district that has switched parties twice in the past six years.  Democrats are targeting that race in the hopes that the backlash against Trump’s unpopular cuts and policies could swing the district to them.
  • In VA-07, Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman who had won his seat when Spanberger left Congress, is serving his first term. He was in the Army from 1997 to 2022 and earned a law degree from the University of Georgia School of Law in 2009.
  • Gubernatorial candidate Spanberger, a former CIA office, served three terms in Congress. Republican Earle-Sears is a former U.S. Marine whose only elected post is her present one.
  • In the Virginia House of Delegates, Democrats hold a razor-thin majority. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is making a seven-figure investment in races there. i Four Republican delegates are not seeking re-election; two in districts formerly held by Democrats. Electing a Democratic governor and expanding the Democratic control of the state legislature will set the tone for 2026 and beyond.

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