This map shows key states. Light orange states have at least one key House race. Darker orange indicates states with multiple House races or a Senate race. These deserve your strongest focus! Check out the tables below the map for details about each race. For more information about the data in the table, see below the tables.
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Key Senate Races
There are just nine competitive Senate races, six of which are currently held by Republicans, and three by Democrats. Four seats need to flip blue in order for the Senate to be in Democratic control.
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Votehub Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | R+6 | Toss Up | 50.2% (R) | Lean R | 18-Aug-26 | Mary Peltola | S6AK00276 | $15,575,539 | Dan Sullivan | S4AK00214 | $11,100,596 |
| Georgia | Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | R+1 | Lean D | 91.0% (D) | Lean D | 19-May-26 | Jon Ossoff | S8GA00180 | $97,986,263 | Mike Collins | S6GA00390 | $7,409,350 |
| Iowa | Iowa | OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R)) | R+6 | Lean R ↑ | 66.9% (R) | Lean R | 2-Jun-26 | Josh Turek | S6IA00298 | $6,276,527 | Ashley Hinson | S6IA00314 | $10,217,845 |
| Maine | Maine | Susan Collins (R) | D+4 | Tossup | 61.1% (D) | Tossup | 9-Jun-26 | Troy Jackson | S6ME00464 | $0 | Susan Collins | S6ME00159 | $18,930,078 |
| Michigan | Michigan | OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D)) | R+0 | Tossup | 69.6% (D) | Tossup | 4-Aug-26 | ||||||
| New Hampshire | New Hampshire | OPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D)) | D+2 | Lean D | 87.1% (D) | Lean D | 8-Sep-26 | ||||||
| North Carolina | North Carolina | OPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R)) | R+1 | Lean D | 87.7% (D) | Tossup | 3-Mar-26 | Roy Cooper | S6NC00407 | $34,975,789 | Michael Whatley | S6NC00415 | $11,272,504 |
| Ohio | Ohio | Jon Husted (R) | R+5 | Toss Up | 51.4% (R) | Lean R | 5-May-26 | Sherrod Brown | S6OH00163 | $38,566,234 | Jon Husted | S6OH00304 | $14,360,028 |
| Texas | Texas | John Cornyn (R) | R+6 | Lean R | 56.1% (R) | Lean R | 3-Mar-26 | James Talarico | S6TX00479 | $68,555,930 | Ken Paxton | S6TX00388 | $9,248,699 |
Key House Races
In 2026, Democrats will need to flip three seats to take control of the House. Competitive seats do exist all over the country. However, the recent mid-decade redistricting has significantly reduced that number and will make it more difficult to flip.
Races We’re Watching
We are keeping our eye on the following Senate and House races. Their ratings mean that these are a little less likely to flip. The outcome of primaries as well as local, national, and world events may generate more favorable odds for these races. Note that Nebraska Democratic nominee for Senate Cindy Burbank agreed to drop out of the race to clear the way for Independent Dan Osborn. Please check back for updates.
Senate Races
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Votehub Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | R+10 | Likely R | 81.6% (R) | Likely R | 12-May-26 | Dan Osborn, IND | S4NE00207 | $5,751,951 | Pete Ricketts | S6NE00129 | $11,233,507 |
House Races
ABOUT THE DATA
PARTISAN LEAN
Measures how partisan a state or congressional district is as compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that state or district voted in the previous two presidential elections. Ratings and Partisan Lean Data are provided courtesy of the Cook Political Report. Please refer to their website for details on calculations and methodology.
COOK RATING
Cook Political Report’s rating of the race based upon their expert analysis including the partisan lean of the state/district, candidate quality and national and district specific dynamics. Cook Political Report is a nonpartisan election-forecasting organization. Please refer to their website for more information about their ratings and methodology.
VOTEHUB RATING
VoteHub’s estimate of each party’s chance of winning, shown as a percentage. It blends four sources — a statistical model of past results and demographics, polling averages, expert race ratings, and prediction-market odds — and runs thousands of simulated elections to produce the number. Higher means a more likely winner; races near 50% are toss-ups.Votehub is a nonpartisan election-forecasting organization. Please refer to their website for more information about their ratings and methodology.
$ RAISED
The amount the candidate has raised to date, according to FEC filings. This does not include outside PAC support which can be substantial.
