This map shows key states. Light orange states have at least one key House race. Darker orange indicates states with multiple House races or a Senate race. These deserve your strongest focus! Check out the tables below the map for details about each race.
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Key Senate Races
There are just seven competitive Senate races, four of which are currently held by Republicans, and three by Democrats. One Republican seat will be open due to retirement: North Carolina (Thom Tillis), while two Democratic seats will be open: Michigan (Gary Peters) and New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen). Mary Peltola has entered the Alaska Senate race, which puts that race in reach for Democrats and we continue to watch the races in Texas and Iowa to see if they appear in reach.
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Sabato Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan, R | R+6 | Lean R | Lean R | 18-Aug-26 | Mary Peltola | S6AK00276 | Dan Sullivan | S4AK00214 | $4,766,410 | |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff, D | R+1 | Lean D | Lean D | 19-May-26 | Jon Ossoff | S8GA00180 | $43,231,398 | |||
| Maine | Susan Collins, R | D+4 | Tossup | Tossup | 9-Jun-26 | Susan Collins | S6ME00159 | $7,393,291 | |||
| Michigan | OPEN -- (Gary Peters, D) | EVEN | Tossup | Tossup | 4-Aug-26 | ||||||
| New Hampshire | OPEN -- (Jeane Shaheen, D) | D+2 | Lean D | Lean D | 8-Sep-26 | ||||||
| North Carolina | OPEN -- (Thom Tillis, R) | R+1 | Lean D | Tossup | 3-Mar-26 | Roy Cooper | S6NC00407 | $21,070,824 | Michael Whatley | S6NC00415 | $6,273,539 |
| Ohio | Jon Husted, R | R+5 | Toss Up | Lean R | 5-May-26 | Sherrod Brown | S6OH00379 | $14,356,451 | Jon Husted | S6OH00304 | $7,348,700 |
Key House Races
In 2026, Democrats will need to flip three seats to take control of the House. Competitive seats exist all over the country! California, New York and Arizona all have multiple opportunities for flipping seats. NOTE: We are continually updating this table as new information arises.
Races We’re Watching
We are keeping our eye on the following Senate and House races. Their ratings mean that these are a little less likely to flip. The outcome of primaries as well as local, national, and world events may generate more favorable odds for these races. Note that Nebraska Democratic nominee for Senate Cindy Burbank agreed to drop out of the race to clear the way for Independent Dan Osborn. Please check back for updates.
Senate Races
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Sabato Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | OPEN - (Joni Ernst, R) | R+6 | Likely R | Likely R | 2-Jun-26 | Ashley Hinson | S6IA00314 | $7,267,266 | |||
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts, R | R+10 | Likely R | Likely R | 12-May-26 | Dan Osborn, IND | S4NE00207 | $3,856,314 | Pete Ricketts | S6NE00129 | $3,856,314 |
| Texas | John Cornyn, R | R+6 | Likely R | Likely R | 3-Mar-26 | James Talarico | S6TX00479 | $40,284,109 |
House Races
*The Partisan Lean measures how partisan a state or congressional district is as compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that state or district voted in the previous two presidential elections. Ratings and Partisan Lean Data are provided courtesy of Cook Political Report. Please refer to their website for details on calculations and methodology.
