Take Action: California

CA-13 Hold (Gray - D); CA-22 Flip (Valadao - R), CA-45 Hold (Tran - D), CA-48 Flip (Issa - R)

Under Democratic leadership, California voters approved a new redistricting plan that may yield as many as four additional Democratic Congressional seats. While California has the world’s fourth largest economy, one in three likely voters identify the cost of living and inflation as major concerns with 7 in 10 voters feeling that their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. Tariffs have reduced the state’s trade with its top trade partner, China, by nearly 7% in the past year. Soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles fell 80%. Authoritarian immigration practices are stirring fear and creating employment issues for business owners.

California has a strong Democratic voting population, but there are pockets of conservative communities. Two Republican districts – CA-22 and CA-48 – are possible flips. In addition, CA-13 and CA-45 have Democratic incumbents that need help to hold their seats.

COMPETITIVE CA RACES
StateDistrictIncumbentParty in PowerPartisan LeanCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-ALNick Begich IIIRepublicanR+6Likely R18-Aug-26Nick Begich IIIH2AK01083$3,227,988
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert)RepublicanR+1Toss Up21-Jul-26Yes
ArizonaAZ-02Eli CraneRepublicanR+7Likely R21-Jul-26Eli CraneH2AZ01354$5,569,196
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRepublicanEVENToss Up21-Jul-26Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$3,944,898Yes
CaliforniaCA-13Adam GrayDemocraticD+2Lean D2-Jun-26Adam GrayH2CA13115$2,321,497
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRepublicanD+1Toss Up2-Jun-26David ValadaoH2CA20094$3,062,912Yes
CaliforniaCA-45Derek TranDemocraticD+3Lean D2-Jun-26Derek TranH4CA45170$3,032,585
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa)RepublicanD+2Lean D2-Jun-26
ColoradoCO-08Gabe EvansRepublicanEVENToss Up2-Jun-26Gabe EvansH4CO08034$3,054,210Yes
FloridaFL-07Cory MillsRepublicanR+5Likely R18-Aug-26Cory MillsH2FL07156$730,719
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina LunaRepublicanR+5Likely R18-Aug-26Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$1,747,547
FloridaFL-23Jared MoskowitzDemocraticD+2Lean D18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH2FL22171$1,286,355
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublicanR+4Toss Up2-Jun-26Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$4,255,011
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson)RepublicanR+4Likely R2-Jun-26
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRepublicanR+2Toss Up2-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$1,388,457Zach NunnH2IA03119$2,614,980
MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden)DemocraticR+4Likely R9-Jun-26
MichiganMI-04Bill HuizengaRepublicanR+3Likely R4-Aug-26Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$2,362,736
MichiganMI-07Tom BarrettRepublicanEVENToss Up4-Aug-26Tom BarrettH2MI07123$3,783,617
MichiganMI-08Kristen McDonald RivetDemocraticR+1Lean D4-Aug-26Kristen McDonald RivetH4MI08218$3,305,120
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James)RepublicanR+3Lean R4-Aug-26
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDemocraticR+5Lean R3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$2,204,686Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$2,151,679
NebraskaNE-02OPEN (Don Bacon)RepublicanD+3Lean D12-May-26
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanRepublicanEVENToss Up2-Jun-26Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$3,246,540
New JerseyNJ-09Nellie PouDemocraticD+2Lean D2-Jun-26Nellie PouH4NJ09194$1,773,275
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDemocraticEVENLean D2-Jun-26Gabe VasquezH2NM02191$1,997,815
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDemocraticD+1Lean D9-Jun-26Susie LeeH6NV04020$2,463,467
New YorkNY-03Tom SuozziDemocraticEVENLean D23-Jun-26Tom SuozziH6NY03247$3,246,484
New YorkNY-04Laura GillenDemocraticD+2Lean D23-Jun-26Laura GillenH2NY04244$2,858,865
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRepublicanD+1Toss Up23-Jun-26Mike LawlerH2NY17162$5,209,723
New YorkNY-19Josh RileyDemocraticD+1Lean D23-Jun-26Josh RileyH8NY22177$3,129,176
OhioOH-01Greg LandsmanDemocraticR+1Toss Up5-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$1,828,892
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturDemocraticR+5Toss Up5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$1,715,103
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesDemocraticD+2Lean D5-May-26Emilia SykesH2OH13264$1,840,008
PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian FitzpatrickRepublicanD+1Likely R19-May-26Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277$4,286,172
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzieRepublicanR+1Toss Up19-May-26Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$2,577,819
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob BresnahanRepublicanR+4Lean R19-May-26Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$2,998,394
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryRepublicanR+3Toss Up19-May-26Scott PerryH2PA04135$2,880,657
TexasTX-28Henry CuellarDemocraticR+3Lean D3-Mar-26Henry CuellarH2TX23082$1,189,858Tano TijerinaH6TX28124$303,085
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezDemocraticR+3Toss Up3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$1,916,886Eric FloresH6TX34080$1,294,218
VirginiaVA-01Rob WittmanRepublicanR+3Lean R16-Jun-26Rob WittmanH8VA01147$2,480,082
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRepublicanEVENToss Up16-Jun-26Jen KiggansH2VA02064$3,578,435
VirginiaVA-07Eugene VindmanDemocraticD+2Lean D16-Jun-26Eugene VindmanH4VA07234$7,044,268
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDemocraticR+2Toss Up4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$3,240,473
WisconsinWI-01Bryan SteilRepublicanR+2Likely R11-Aug-26Bryan SteilH8WI01156$3,443,146
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRepublicanR+3Toss Up11-Aug-26Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$4,348,058

Throughout California, economic issues coupled with strong voter turnout are keys to Democratic success.

  • Republican Incumbent Congressman David Valadao, R CA-22,. voted for the Big Ugly Bill despite representing a district where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 12 % and two-thirds of his constituents rely on Medi-Cal for their health care. He repeatedly promised not to vote for any reductions in the program.
  • In CA-22 where 74% are Hispanic/Latino, the economic situation is stark –  29.5% of children live in households with incomes ≤ 100% of the federal poverty level vs 29.4% nationally; 247.3 deaths per 100K from cardiovascular disease vs 201 per 100K nationally; 38.5% of public-school students were chronically absent vs 29.4 nationally; 64.1% of population lives in a designated primary care shortage area vs 7.8% nationally; food insecurity impacts 32.3% adults vs 16% nationally.
  • In CA-48, incumbent Republican Rep. Darrill Issa, defended Trump against impeachment and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2025 Issa filed legislation to protect Trump’s agenda from judicial challenges.
  • CA-48 voters consider housing costs to be a major issue with 57.3% of households spending more than 30% of income on housing vs 49.9% nationally.
  • In CA13 Adam Gray, a moderate Democrat, won the 2024 election by less than 1% and will be targeted for a Republican flip in 2026.
    Serving on two committees, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gray was appointed whip of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition and is a member of the New Democratic Coalition caucus.
  • Gray’s recent comments outline his focus “Going forward, my focus is simple: lower health care costs and protect the people I represent from becoming pawns in political games.
  • In CA45, Derek Tran won the 2024 election by just 0.2%, and his district is considered a 2026 Democratic battleground.
  • The son of a Vietnamese refugee, a veteran and a small business owner, Tran is a member of the House Armed Services Committee and House Small Business Committee where he focuses on national security, economic issues, consumer protections, and access to capital for small business owners and entrepreneurs. His work as an attorney focused on consumer and worker issues.

Events

Resources

Local Organization(s):
Activate America

Menu