Take Action in Virginia

VA02 (Flip) Kiggans (R), VA07 (Hold) Vindman (D)

Virginia is cementing itself as a midterms bellwether again. Democrats are capitalizing on the anti-Trump sentiment due to cuts in federal services, axing of federal workers, and upcoming pain likely at empty ports due to draconian tariffs.

The Virginia governor’s race, November 2025, pits former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, D, against Republican Lt.Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. One U.S. House district is shaping up as a possible flip – VA-02, where Republican incumbent Jennifer Kiggans, VA-02, has ducked meetings with constituents who want to voice their concerns about cuts affected by the administration’s budget.

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COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

StateDistrictIncumbentParty in PowerPartisan LeanCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-ALNick Begich IIIRepublicanR+6Likely R18-Aug-26Nick Begich IIIH2AK01083$3,227,988
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert)RepublicanR+1Toss Up4-Aug-26Yes
ArizonaAZ-02Eli CraneRepublicanR+7Likely R4-Aug-26Eli CraneH2AZ01354$5,569,196
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRepublicanEVENToss Up4-Aug-26Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$3,944,898Yes
CaliforniaCA-13Adam GrayDemocraticD+2Lean D2-Jun-26Adam GrayH2CA13115$2,321,497
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRepublicanD+1Toss Up2-Jun-26David ValadaoH2CA20094$3,062,912Yes
CaliforniaCA-45Derek TranDemocraticD+3Lean D2-Jun-26Derek TranH4CA45170$3,032,585
CaliforniaCA-48Darrell IssaRepublicanD+2Toss Up2-Jun-26
ColoradoCO-08Gabe EvansRepublicanEVENToss Up2-Jun-26Gabe EvansH4CO08034$3,054,210Yes
FloridaFL-07Cory MillsRepublicanR+5Likely R18-Aug-26Cory MillsH2FL07156$730,719
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina LunaRepublicanR+5Likely R18-Aug-26Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$1,747,547
FloridaFL-23Jared MoskowitzDemocraticD+2Lean D18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH2FL22171$1,286,355
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublicanR+4Toss Up2-Jun-26Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$4,255,011
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson)RepublicanR+4Likely R2-Jun-26
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRepublicanR+2Toss Up2-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$1,388,457Zach NunnH2IA03119$2,614,980
MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden)DemocraticR+4Likely R9-Jun-26
MichiganMI-04Bill HuizengaRepublicanR+3Likely R4-Aug-26Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$2,362,736
MichiganMI-07Tom BarrettRepublicanEVENToss Up4-Aug-26Tom BarrettH2MI07123$3,783,617
MichiganMI-08Kristen McDonald RivetDemocraticR+1Lean D4-Aug-26Kristen McDonald RivetH4MI08218$3,305,120
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James)RepublicanR+3Lean R4-Aug-26
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDemocraticR+5Lean R3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$2,204,686Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$2,151,679
NebraskaNE-02OPEN (Don Bacon)RepublicanD+3Lean D12-May-26
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanRepublicanEVENToss Up2-Jun-26Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$3,246,540
New JerseyNJ-09Nellie PouDemocraticD+2Lean D2-Jun-26Nellie PouH4NJ09194$1,773,275
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDemocraticEVENLean D2-Jun-26Gabe VasquezH2NM02191$1,997,815
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDemocraticD+1Lean D9-Jun-26Susie LeeH6NV04020$2,463,467
New YorkNY-03Tom SuozziDemocraticEVENLean D23-Jun-26Tom SuozziH6NY03247$3,246,484
New YorkNY-04Laura GillenDemocraticD+2Lean D23-Jun-26Laura GillenH2NY04244$2,858,865
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRepublicanD+1Toss Up23-Jun-26Mike LawlerH2NY17162$5,209,723
New YorkNY-19Josh RileyDemocraticD+1Lean D23-Jun-26Josh RileyH8NY22177$3,129,176
OhioOH-01Greg LandsmanDemocraticR+1Toss Up5-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$1,828,892
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturDemocraticR+5Toss Up5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$1,715,103
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesDemocraticD+2Lean D5-May-26Emilia SykesH2OH13264$1,840,008
PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian FitzpatrickRepublicanD+1Likely R19-May-26Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277$4,286,172
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzieRepublicanR+1Toss Up19-May-26Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$2,577,819
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob BresnahanRepublicanR+4Lean R19-May-26Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$2,998,394
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryRepublicanR+3Toss Up19-May-26Scott PerryH2PA04135$2,880,657
TexasTX-28Henry CuellarDemocraticR+3Lean D3-Mar-26Henry CuellarH2TX23082$1,189,858Tano TijerinaH6TX28124$303,085
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezDemocraticR+3Toss Up3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$1,916,886Eric FloresH6TX34080$1,294,218
VirginiaVA-01Rob WittmanRepublicanR+3Lean R16-Jun-26Rob WittmanH8VA01147$2,480,082
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRepublicanEVENToss Up16-Jun-26Jen KiggansH2VA02064$3,578,435
VirginiaVA-07Eugene VindmanDemocraticD+2Lean D16-Jun-26Eugene VindmanH4VA07234$7,044,268
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDemocraticR+2Toss Up4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$3,240,473
WisconsinWI-01Bryan SteilRepublicanR+2Likely R11-Aug-26Bryan SteilH8WI01156$3,443,146
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRepublicanR+3Toss Up11-Aug-26Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$4,348,058
  • Republican Kiggans also has taken heat for her defense of tariffs and other Trump executive orders. Cook deems the race is Lean Republican, but it’s a district that has switched parties twice in the past six years.  Democrats are targeting that race in the hopes that the backlash against Trump’s unpopular cuts and policies could swing the district to them.
  • In VA-07, Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman who had won his seat when Spanberger left Congress, is serving his first term. He was in the Army from 1997 to 2022 and earned a law degree from the University of Georgia School of Law in 2009.
  • Gubernatorial candidate Spanberger, a former CIA office, served three terms in Congress. Republican Earle-Sears is a former U.S. Marine whose only elected post is her present one.
  • In the Virginia House of Delegates, Democrats hold a razor-thin majority. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is making a seven-figure investment in races there. i Four Republican delegates are not seeking re-election; two in districts formerly held by Democrats. Electing a Democratic governor and expanding the Democratic control of the state legislature will set the tone for 2026 and beyond.
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