Key Races in 2022 – Race Results

The Together We Elect strategic analysis team identifies top Senate and House races that will determine which party controls Congress. We only pick districts we think your support can make a real difference. We prioritize races by both their potential win-ability (no lost causes please) as well as potential marginal impact (no shoe-ins either). Criteria used in selecting races include:

Partisan lean of the district (post-redistricting) and trends in partisanship from 2012 – 2020
Incumbency
Congressional Election results in prior cycles
Money raised
Candidate Experience and Endorsements

Key Senate Races

Of the 33 Senate races this cycle, there are just nine of them that are competitive: four Democratic holds and five potential Republican flips. There are two other races that are often mentioned: Iowa and Missouri that look like pretty solid Republican holds at this point.

Result	State	Incumbent	PVI	Cook Rating	Sabato Rating	Dem Candidate	Rep Candidate
WIN	Arizona	Mark Kelly (D)	R+2	Tossup	Tossup	Mark Kelly	Blake Masters
WIN	Georgia	Raphael Warnock (D)	R+3	Tossup	Tossup	Raphael Warnock	Herschel Walker
WIN	Nevada	Catherine Cortez Masto (D)	EVEN	Tossup	Tossup	Catherine Cortez Masto	Adam Laxalt
WIN	New Hampshire	Maggie Hassan (D)	EVEN	Lean D	Lean D	Maggie Hassan	Don Bolduc
WIN	Pennsylvania	Open (R)	R+2	Lean D	Tossup	John Fetterman	Mehmet Oz
LOSS	Wisconsin	Ron Johnson (R)	R+2	Tossup	Lean R	Mandela Barnes	Ron Johnson
LOSS	North Carolina	Open (R)	EVEN	Lean R	Lean R	Cheri Beasley	Theodore P Budd
LOSS	Ohio	Open (R)	R+6	Lean R	Lean R	Timothy Ryan	J D Vance
LOSS	Florida	Marco Rubio (R)	R+3	Lean R	Likely R	Val Demings	Marco Rubio

* (I) — Incumbent is presumed general election candidate

** — Presumed winner (non competitive primary)

Key House Races

The current House breakdown is 220 Democrats vs 212 Republicans (Three vacancies – 2 D, 1 R). Of the 220 current Democratic members, 24 are retiring and 11 of which are in vulnerable districts. By comparison, just 11 House Republicans are retiring and none of them sit in competitive districts. Vulnerable seats exist all over the country and many states which didn’t receive much attention in 2020 will need focus in 2022: California, New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Virginia to name a few.

Results	State	District	Incumbent	PVI	Cook Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	Candidate Profile	Rep Candidate
WIN	Alaska	AKAL	Mary Peltola (Special Election)	R+8	Lean D	Tossup		Mary Peltola	Mary Peltola	Sarah Palin
LOSS	Arizona	AZ01	David Schweikert (R)	R+2	Tossup	Lean R	2-Aug	Jevin D Hodge ($706,318)		David S. Schweikert ($645,690)
LOSS	Arizona	AZ02	Tom O'Halleran (D)	R+6	Lean R	Lean R		Tom O'Halleran		Eli Crane (R)
LOSS	Arizona	AZ06	Open (D)	R+3	Lean R	Lean R	2-Aug	Kirsten Engel ($1,041,479)		Juan Ciscomani ($1,658,991)
WIN	California	CA09	Josh Harder (D)	D+5	Likely D	Lean D	7-Jun	Josh Harder ($4,233,777)		Thomas Patti ($498,400)
LOSS	California	CA13	Open (D)	D+4	Tossup	Tossup	7-Jun	Adam C. Gray ($664,425)		John S Duarte ($234,450)
LOSS	California	CA22	David Valadao (R)	D+5	Tossup	Tossup	7-Jun	Rudy Salas ($460,158)		David Valadao ($1,752,035)
LOSS	California	CA27	Mike Garcia (R)	D+4	Tossup	Tossup	7-Jun	Christy Smith ($830,862)		Michael Garcia ($3,682,830)
LOSS	California	CA41	Ken Calvert (R)	R+3	Lean R	Lean R	7-Jun	Will Rollins		Ken Calvert
LOSS	California	CA45	Michelle Steel (R)	D+2	Lean R	Lean R	7-Jun	Jay Chen ($1,964,097)		Michelle Steel ($2,744,333)
WIN	California	CA47	Katie Porter (D)	D+3	Lean D	Lean D	7-Jun	Katie Porter ($13,268,126)		Scott Baugh ($1,368,313)
WIN	California	CA49	Mike Levin (D)	D+3	Lean D	Lean D	7-Jun	Mike Levin ($2,594,411)		Brian L Maryott ($774,200)
WIN	Colorado	CO08	New Seat (N)	EVEN	Tossup	Lean R	28-Jun	Yadira Caraveo ($567,794)		Barbara Kirkmeyer ($291,808)
WIN	Connecticut	CT05	Jahana Hayes (D)	D+3	Lean D	Lean D	9-Aug	Jahana Hayes ($1,112,088)		George S Logan ($375,091)
LOSS	Iowa	IA03	Cindy Axne (D)	R+3	Lean R	Lean R	7-Jun	Cindy Axne		Zach Nunn ($695,573)
WIN	Illinois	IL13	Open (N)	D+3	Lean D	Lean D	28-Jun	Nikki Budzinski ($1,438,783)		Regan Deering ($113,496)
WIN	Illinois	IL17	Open (D)	D+2	Tossup	Tossup	28-Jun	Eric Sorensen ($307,547)		Esther Joy King ($2,299,211)
WIN	Indiana	IN01	Frank J. Mrvan (D)	D+3	Tossup	Tossup	3-May	Frank J Mrvan ($640,557)		Jennifer-Ruth Green ($346,964)
WIN	Kansas	KS03	Sharice Davids (D)	R+1	Tossup	Tossup	2-Aug	Sharice Davids ($3,513,158)		Amanda Adkins ($1,767,432)
WIN	Maine	ME02	Jared Golden (D)	R+6	Tossup	Tossup	14-Jun	Jared Golden ($2,705,743)		Bruce Lee Poliquin ($2,016,947)
WIN	Michigan	MI03	Peter Meijer (R)	D+1	Lean D	Lean D	2-Aug	Hillary Scholten		John Gibbs
WIN	Michigan	MI07	Elissa Slotkin (D)	R+2	Tossup	Tossup	2-Aug	Elissa Slotkin ($4,756,462)		Thomas More Barrett ($1,045,254)
WIN	Michigan	MI08	Dan Kildee (D)	R+1	Tossup	Tossup	2-Aug	Daniel Kildee ($2,192,936)		Paul Junge ($207,097)
WIN	Minnesota	MN02	Angie Craig (D)	D+1	Tossup	Tossup	9-Aug	Angie Craig ($3,613,413)		Tyler Kistner ($1,553,556)
WIN	North Carolina	NC01	Open (D)	D+2	Lean D	Lean D	17-May	Don Davis ($450,078)		Sandy Smith ($789,108)
WIN	North Carolina	NC13	Open (R)	R+2	Tossup	Lean R	17-May	Wiley Nickel ($466,242)		Robert Hines ($1,636,468)
WIN	New Hampshire	NH01	Chris Pappas (D)	EVEN	Tossup	Tossup	13-Sep	Chris Pappas		Karoline Leavitt
WIN	New Hampshire	NH02	Annie Kuster (D)	D+2	Lean D	Lean D	13-Sep	Annie Kuster		Bob Burns
LOSS	New Jersey	NJ07	Tom Malinowski (D)	R+1	Lean R	Lean R	7-Jun	Tom Malinowski ($4,555,639)		Thomas H. Kean ($1,844,184)
WIN	New Mexico	NM02	Yvette Herrell (R)	D+1	Tossup	Tossup	7-Jun	Gabriel Vasquez ($588,777)		Stella Yvette Herrell ($2,397,713)
WIN	Nevada	NV01	Dina Titus (D)	D+3	Tossup	Lean D	14-Jun	Dina Titus ($1,030,454)		Mark Robertson ($415,107)
WIN	Nevada	NV03	Susie Lee (D)	D+1	Tossup	Tossup	14-Jun	Susie Lee ($2,927,013)		April Becker ($1,009,569)
WIN	Nevada	NV04	Steven Horsford (D)	D+3	Tossup	Lean D	14-Jun	Steve Horsford ($2,290,819)		Samuel James Peters ($654,592)
LOSS	New York	NY01	Open (R)	R+3	Lean R	Lean R	23-Aug	Bridget Fleming	/key_candidates/bridget-fleming/	Nicholas LaLota
LOSS	New York	NY03	Open (D)	D+2	Lean D	Lean D	23-Aug	Robert Zimmerman	Not available yet	George Santos
LOSS	New York	NY17	Sean Patrick Maloney (D)	D+3	Lean D	Lean D	23-Aug	Sean Patrick Maloney	/key_candidates/sean-patrick-maloney/	Michael Lawler
WIN	New York	NY18	Open (D)	D+1	Lean D	Lean D	23-Aug	Pat Ryan		Colin Schmitt
LOSS	New York	NY19	Pat Ryan (D) (special election)	EVEN	Tossup	Tossup	23-Aug	Josh Riley		Marc Molinaro
LOSS	New York	NY22	Open (R)	D+1	Tossup	Tossup	23-Aug	Francis Conole		Brandon Williams
WIN	Ohio	OH01	Steve Chabot (R)	D+2	Tossup	Tossup	3-May	Greg Landsman ($575,540)		Steve Chabot ($881,071)
WIN	Ohio	OH09	Marcy Kaptur (D)	R+3	Lean D	Tossup	3-May	Marcy Kaptur ($1,051,851)		J R Majewski ($418,741)
WIN	Ohio	OH13	Open (D)	R+1	Tossup	Tossup	3-May	Emilia Sykes ($402,292)		Madison Gesiotto Gilbert ($409,631)
LOSS	Oregon	OR05	Open (D)	D+2	Tossup	Tossup	17-May	Jamie Mcleod-Skinner ($935,656)		Lori Chavez-Deremer ($355,225)
WIN	Pennsylvania	PA07	Susan Wild (D)	R+2	Tossup	Tossup	17-May	Susan Wild ($3,006,083)		Lisa Scheller ($1,189,912)
WIN	Pennsylvania	PA08	Matt Cartwright (D)	R+4	Tossup	Tossup	17-May	Matt Cartwright ($2,546,102)		Jim Bognet ($713,988)
WIN	Pennsylvania	PA17	Open (D)	EVEN	Tossup	Tossup	17-May	Chris Deluzio ($446,030)	/key_candidates/chris-deluzio/	Jeremy Shaffer ($175,352)
WIN	Rhode Island	RI02	Open (D)	D+4	Tossup	Lean D	13-Sep	Seth Magaziner		Allen Fung
WIN	Texas	TX28	Henry Cuellar (D)	D+3	Lean D	Tossup	24-May	Henry Cuellar ($3,832,815)		Cassandra Garcia ($376,975)
WIN	Texas	TX34	Merged Seat (D)	D+9	Tossup	Lean D	24-May	Vicente Gonzalez ($1,971,149)		Mayra Nohemi Flores ($402,736)
LOSS	Virginia	VA02	Elaine Luria (D)	R+2	Tossup	Tossup	21-Jun	Elaine Luria ($3,806,720)		Jennifer Kiggans ($1,646,888)
WIN	Virginia	VA07	Abigail Spanberger (D)	D+1	Lean D	Lean D	21-Jun	Abigail Spanberger ($4,246,473)		Yesli Vega ($356,105)
WIN	Washington	WA08	Kim Schrier (D)	D+1	Tossup	Tossup	2-Aug	Kim Schrier ($4,136,518)		Matt Larkin ($398,614)
LOSS	Wisconsin	WI03	Open (D)	R+4	Lean R	Lean R	9-Aug	Brad Pfaff		Derrick Van Orden

* (I) — Incumbent is presumed general election candidate

** — Presumed winner (non competitive primary)