Hold: NY18 (Ryan), Flip: NY04 (D'Esposito), NY17 (Lawler), NY19 (Molinaro), NY22 (Williams)
Democrat Tom Suozzi flipped the seat held previously by the Olympic-Gold-Liar Republican George Santos. In November there is an opportunity to flip four more U.S. House seats in New York. Additionally there is one competitive Democratic seat won by Freshman Rep Pat Ryan in NY-18 to defend. If Dems win these races, New York can singularly flip the House. [Read More on NY Below]
Even considering the good news of Suozzi’s win, Democratic candidates’ holding that seat and NY-18 and flip ingthe four other Congressional seats will be a battle.
Of note are four seats currently held by Republicans – NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22. These four are rated Tossups and are eminently “flippable.” First term Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan (NY-18) is running for reelection in a district deemed Lean D.
Some key considerations in New York center on redistricting. The state appeals court has yet to issue its decision on redrawing the maps, but the Independent Redistricting Committee is being allowed to proceed in revising the 2022 maps that favored Republicans.
Responding to the Republican showing in the midterms, the NY Democratic Party and grassroots groups working in the state are taking no vote for granted. Democratic leaders are planning a ballot measure that will enshrine abortion in the state constitution. It’s a move seen as boosting Democratic turnout, which in turn, will help the party win more Congressional and local races.
The 2024 elections will be a crucial test for both parties, and the results will have far-reaching implications for the future of democracy in the state and in the country.
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