Take Action New York

Hold: NY18 (Ryan), Flip: NY04 (D'Esposito), NY17 (Lawler), NY19 (Molinaro), NY22 (Williams)

Democrat Tom Suozzi flipped the seat held previously by the Olympic-Gold-Liar Republican George Santos. In November there is an opportunity to flip four more U.S. House seats in New York. Additionally there is one competitive Democratic seat won by Freshman Rep Pat Ryan in NY-18 to defend. If Dems win these races, New York can singularly flip the House.

[Read More on NY Below]

COMPETITIVE RACES IN NEW YORK

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanParty in PowerCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaR+8DTossupAug-20Mary Peltola$11,383,692MultipleN/A
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertR+2RToss UpJul-30Amish Shah$5,499,151David Schweikert$3,806,313Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniR+3RToss UpJul-30Kirsten Engel$7,713,062Juan Ciscomani$6,281,198
CaliforniaCA-47OPEN (Porter)D+3DLean DMar-5David Min$6,121,731Scott Baugh$4,134,243Yes
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteD+4RToss UpMar-5Adam Gray$5,416,262John Duarte$4,147,092Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoD+5RToss UpMar-5Rudy Salas$5,772,500David Valadao$4,605,340Yes
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaD+4RToss UpMar-5George Whitesides$9,258,624Mike Garcia$5,978,261
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertR+3RToss UpMar-5Will Rollins$11,510,839Ken Calvert$7,531,776
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelD+2RTossupMar-5Derek Tran$5,000,888Michelle Steel$9,441,899
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoEVENDToss UpJun-25Yadira Caraveo$7,303,139Gabe Evans$2,297,545
ColoradoCO-03OPEN (Boebert)R+7RLikely RJun-25Adam Frisch$16,502,296Jeff Hurd$2,410,147
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesD+3DLean DAug-13Jahana Hayes$3,966,896George Logan$2,633,764
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenD+2DLikely DMar-19Eric Sorensen$4,721,699Joseph McGraw$1,385,103
IndianaIN-01Frank MrvanD+3DLikely DMay-7Frank Mrvan$3,055,858Randy Niemeyer$1,024,067
IowaIA-03Zach NunnR+3RToss UpJun-4Lanon Baccam$4,826,753Zach Nunn$5,227,097
MaineME-02Jared GoldenR+6DToss UpJun-11Jared Golden$7,062,983Austin Theriault$3,209,611
MichiganMI-07OPEN (Slotkin)R+2DToss UpAug-6Curtis Hertel$7,045,643Tom Barrett$4,622,111
MichiganMI-08OPEN (Kildee)R+1DToss UpAug-6Kristen McDonald Rivet$5,255,715Paul Junge$5,114,278
MichiganMI-10John JamesR+3RLean RAug-6Carl Marlinga$2,596,072John James$8,287,451
MinnesotaMN-02Angie CraigD+1DLean DAug-13Angie Craig$7,852,933Joe Teirab$2,966,229
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconEVENRTossupMay-14Tony Vargas$6,746,766Don Bacon$5,944,820
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeD+1DLean DJun-11Susie Lee$5,667,750Drew Johnson$1,296,245
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanR+1RLean RJun-4Sue Altman$5,638,730Thomas Kean$5,558,101
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezD+1DToss UpJun-4Gabe Vasquez$6,483,548Yvette Herrell$3,958,577
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanD+2DLean DJun-25Pat Ryan$7,543,210Alison Esposito$2,176,423
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsD+3RLean DJun-25John Mannion$3,555,502Brandon Williams$3,938,363
New YorkNY-04Anthony DEspositoD+5RToss UpJun-25Laura Gillen$6,127,580Anthony DEsposito$4,419,902
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerD+3RLean RJun-25Mondaire Jones$9,057,157Mike Lawler$7,777,943
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroR+1RToss UpJun-25Josh Riley$8,760,534Marc Molinaro$5,119,951
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisR+1DToss UpMar-5Don Davis$5,599,492Laurie Buckhout$4,279,685
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturR+3DLean DMar-19Marcy Kaptur$4,483,047Derek Merrin$1,480,664
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesR+1DLean DMar-19Emilia Sykes$4,949,666Kevin Coughlin$1,443,635
OregonOR-06Andrea SalinasD+4DLean DMay-21Andrea Salinas$5,007,770Mike Erickson$544,612
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerD+2RTossupMay-21Janelle Bynum$6,436,776Lori Chavez-DeRemer$5,698,142
PennsylvaniaPA-17Chris DeluzioEVENDLean DApr-23Chris Deluzio$4,700,672Rob Mercuri$1,681,625
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildR+2DToss UpApr-23Susan Wild$8,160,815Ryan MacKenzie$1,507,653
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightR+4DToss UpApr-23Matt Cartwright$8,124,143Robert Bresnahan$4,124,363
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryR+5RToss UpApr-23Janelle Stelson$5,379,810Scott Perry$3,862,884
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezD+9DLean DMay-28Vicente Gonzalez$2,853,782Mayra Flores$6,306,400
VirginiaVA-07OPEN (Spanberger)D+1DTossupJun-18Eugene Vindman$15,686,040Derrick Anderson$2,851,582
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansR+2RLean RJun-18Missy Cotter Smasal$2,784,150Jen Kiggans$5,969,764
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezR+5DToss UpAug-6Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$10,699,161Joe Kent$2,311,352
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenR+4RLean RAug-13Rebecca Cooke$5,300,456Derrick Van Orden$6,627,347

Even considering the good news of Suozzi’s win, Democratic candidates’ holding that seat and NY-18 and flip ingthe four other Congressional seats will be a battle.

Of note are four seats currently held by Republicans – NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22. These four are rated Tossups and are eminently “flippable.” First term Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan (NY-18) is running for reelection in a district deemed Lean D.

Some key considerations in New York center on redistricting. The state appeals court has yet to issue its decision on redrawing the maps, but the Independent Redistricting Committee is being allowed to proceed in revising the 2022 maps that favored Republicans.

Responding to the Republican showing in the midterms, the NY Democratic Party and grassroots groups working in the state are taking no vote for granted. Democratic leaders are planning a ballot measure that will enshrine abortion in the state constitution. It’s a move seen as boosting Democratic turnout, which in turn, will help the party win more Congressional and local races.

The 2024 elections will be a crucial test for both parties, and the results will have far-reaching implications for the future of democracy in the state and in the country.

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