Senate, IA-01 (Flip, Miller-Meeks), IA-03 (Flip, Nunn)
Iowa’s three Republican-held House seats — IA-01, IA-02 (open), and IA-03 — are Democratic targets in 2026, especially Iowa’s 1st and 3rd districts. With rising concerns around healthcare costs, water quality, and support for rural communities, Democrats see an opportunity to compete in districts that have trended Republican but remain highly responsive to economic and quality-of-life issues. Christina Bohannan won the June 2 Democratic primary in IA-01 to guarantee a rematch against Republican incumbent Marianette Miller-Meeks, who had won her seat in 2024 by only 799 votes. Bohanan is a law professor and former engineer who served as an Iowa State Representative from 2021 to 2023. In IA-03, Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott, currently a member of the Iowa State Senate, ran virtually unopposed in the primary. She faces incumbent Republican Zach Nunn, whose backers include Vice President JD Vance, which may or may not help.
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Votehub Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | R+6 | Toss Up | 51.5% (D) | Lean R | 18-Aug-26 | Mary Peltola | S6AK00276 | $8,661,662 | Dan Sullivan | S4AK00214 | $9,099,779 |
| Georgia | Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | R+1 | Lean D | 89.4% (D) | Lean D | 19-May-26 | Jon Ossoff | S8GA00180 | $81,146,109 | Mike Collins | S6GA00390 | $5,546,637 |
| Iowa | Iowa | OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R)) | R+6 | Lean R ↑ | 65.6% (R) | Lean R | 2-Jun-26 | Josh Turek | S6IA00298 | $3,463,099 | Ashley Hinson | S6IA00314 | $8,158,017 |
| Maine | Maine | Susan Collins (R) | D+4 | Tossup | 59.6% (D) | Tossup | 9-Jun-26 | Susan Collins | S6ME00159 | $14,925,296 | |||
| Michigan | Michigan | OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D)) | R+0 | Tossup | 70.0% (D) | Tossup | 4-Aug-26 | ||||||
| New Hampshire | New Hampshire | OPEN -- (Jeane Shaheen (D)) | D+2 | Lean D | 86.7% (D) | Lean D | 8-Sep-26 | ||||||
| North Carolina | North Carolina | OPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R)) | R+1 | Lean D | 87.1% (D) | Tossup | 3-Mar-26 | Roy Cooper | S6NC00407 | $26,822,373 | Michael Whatley | S6NC00415 | $8,410,252 |
| Ohio | Ohio | Jon Husted (R) | R+5 | Toss Up | 52.3% (R) | Lean R | 5-May-26 | Sherrod Brown | S6OH00163 | $25,979,968 | Jon Husted | S6OH00304 | $10,527,814 |
| Texas | Texas | John Cornyn (R) | R+6 | Lean R | 59.5% (R) | Lean R | 3-Mar-26 | James Talarico | S6TX00479 | $40,284,109 | Ken Paxton | S6TX00388 | $7,605,209 |
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