Take Action New Hampshire

Senate (Hassan), NH-01 (Pappas)

New Hampshire was the last state to finalize its redistricting maps this year, when the New Hampshire Supreme Court approved a map drawn by a redistricting special master at the end of August. In 2016, incumbent U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte by a mere 0.1 points. In the 2022 midterms, Hassan is deemed one of the top three vulnerable Democrats in the U.S. Senate. The good news is that New Hampshire Republicans have had a grueling primary, which takes place Sept. 13. Leading the Republican 11 candidate pack is Robert Bolduc, a Big Lie promoter who lost a 2020 primary and who has defended Confederate emblems as a “symbol of hope." The other Republican to watch is state senate president Chuck Morse.

The Cook Political Report designates New Hampshire as Lean D. U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) won an open seat in 2018 by 8 points. In 2020, he beat Republican challenger and Trump senior adviser in the State Department Matt Mower, but his margin slipped 3 points. Pappas’ seat is considered the more vulnerable of the two NH congressional seats. Both NH-01 and the NH-02 are considered Democratic toss-ups by Cook Political Report, but NH-01 is R+2 while NH-02, held by Democrat Annie Kuster, is D+1.

Mower is one of 10 Republicans who have filed to run in the primary, which takes place Sept. 13. The other leading challengers are Gail Huff Brown, a former television reporter and wife of one-term Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, as well as Karoline Leavitt, who worked as an assistant White House press secretary under Trump and supports his Big Lie.

The NRCC booked almost $3.5 million for advertising in the Boston market, which could be used to put pressure on Pappas as well as Democratic Kuster.

SENATE RACE

ResultStateIncumbentPVICook RatingSabato RatingDem CandidateRep Candidate
WINArizonaMark Kelly (D)R+2TossupTossupMark KellyBlake Masters
WINGeorgiaRaphael Warnock (D)R+3TossupTossupRaphael WarnockHerschel Walker
WINNevadaCatherine Cortez Masto (D)EVENTossupTossupCatherine Cortez MastoAdam Laxalt
WINNew HampshireMaggie Hassan (D)EVENLean DLean DMaggie HassanDon Bolduc
WINPennsylvaniaOpen (R)R+2Lean DTossupJohn FettermanMehmet Oz
LOSSWisconsinRon Johnson (R)R+2TossupLean RMandela BarnesRon Johnson
LOSSNorth CarolinaOpen (R)EVENLean RLean RCheri BeasleyTheodore P Budd
LOSSOhioOpen (R)R+6Lean RLean RTimothy RyanJ D Vance
LOSSFloridaMarco Rubio (R)R+3Lean RLikely RVal DemingsMarco Rubio
COMPETITIVE NH RACES

ResultsStateDistrictIncumbentPVICook RatingDem CandidateRep Candidate
WINAlaskaAKALMary Peltola (Special Election)R+8Lean DTossupMary PeltolaMary PeltolaSarah Palin
LOSSArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2TossupLean R2-AugJevin D Hodge ($706,318)David S. Schweikert ($645,690)
LOSSArizonaAZ02Tom O'Halleran (D)R+6Lean RLean RTom O'HalleranEli Crane (R)
LOSSArizonaAZ06Open (D)R+3Lean RLean R2-AugKirsten Engel ($1,041,479)Juan Ciscomani ($1,658,991)
WINCaliforniaCA09Josh Harder (D)D+5Likely DLean D7-JunJosh Harder ($4,233,777)Thomas Patti ($498,400)
LOSSCaliforniaCA13Open (D)D+4TossupTossup7-JunAdam C. Gray ($664,425)John S Duarte ($234,450)
LOSSCaliforniaCA22David Valadao (R)D+5TossupTossup7-JunRudy Salas ($460,158)David Valadao ($1,752,035)
LOSSCaliforniaCA27Mike Garcia (R)D+4TossupTossup7-JunChristy Smith ($830,862)Michael Garcia ($3,682,830)
LOSSCaliforniaCA41Ken Calvert (R)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunWill RollinsKen Calvert
LOSSCaliforniaCA45Michelle Steel (R)D+2Lean RLean R7-JunJay Chen ($1,964,097)Michelle Steel ($2,744,333)
WINCaliforniaCA47Katie Porter (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunKatie Porter ($13,268,126)Scott Baugh ($1,368,313)
WINCaliforniaCA49Mike Levin (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunMike Levin ($2,594,411)Brian L Maryott ($774,200)
WINColoradoCO08New Seat (N)EVENTossupLean R28-JunYadira Caraveo ($567,794)Barbara Kirkmeyer ($291,808)
WINConnecticutCT05Jahana Hayes (D)D+3Lean DLean D9-AugJahana Hayes ($1,112,088)George S Logan ($375,091)
LOSSIowaIA03Cindy Axne (D)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunCindy AxneZach Nunn ($695,573)
WINIllinoisIL13Open (N)D+3Lean DLean D28-JunNikki Budzinski ($1,438,783)Regan Deering ($113,496)
WINIllinoisIL17Open (D)D+2TossupTossup28-JunEric Sorensen ($307,547)Esther Joy King ($2,299,211)
WINIndianaIN01Frank J. Mrvan (D)D+3TossupTossup3-MayFrank J Mrvan ($640,557)Jennifer-Ruth Green ($346,964)
WINKansasKS03Sharice Davids (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugSharice Davids ($3,513,158)Amanda Adkins ($1,767,432)
WINMaineME02Jared Golden (D)R+6TossupTossup14-JunJared Golden ($2,705,743)Bruce Lee Poliquin ($2,016,947)
WINMichiganMI03Peter Meijer (R)D+1Lean DLean D2-AugHillary ScholtenJohn Gibbs
WINMichiganMI07Elissa Slotkin (D)R+2TossupTossup2-AugElissa Slotkin ($4,756,462)Thomas More Barrett ($1,045,254)
WINMichiganMI08Dan Kildee (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugDaniel Kildee ($2,192,936)Paul Junge ($207,097)
WINMinnesotaMN02Angie Craig (D)D+1TossupTossup9-AugAngie Craig ($3,613,413)Tyler Kistner ($1,553,556)
WINNorth CarolinaNC01Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D17-MayDon Davis ($450,078)Sandy Smith ($789,108)
WINNorth CarolinaNC13Open (R)R+2TossupLean R17-MayWiley Nickel ($466,242)Robert Hines ($1,636,468)
WINNew HampshireNH01Chris Pappas (D)EVENTossupTossup13-SepChris PappasKaroline Leavitt
WINNew HampshireNH02Annie Kuster (D)D+2Lean DLean D13-SepAnnie KusterBob Burns
LOSSNew JerseyNJ07Tom Malinowski (D)R+1Lean RLean R7-JunTom Malinowski ($4,555,639)Thomas H. Kean ($1,844,184)
WINNew MexicoNM02Yvette Herrell (R)D+1TossupTossup7-JunGabriel Vasquez ($588,777)Stella Yvette Herrell ($2,397,713)
WINNevadaNV01Dina Titus (D)D+3TossupLean D14-Jun Dina Titus ($1,030,454)Mark Robertson ($415,107)
WINNevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1TossupTossup14-JunSusie Lee ($2,927,013)April Becker ($1,009,569)
WINNevadaNV04Steven Horsford (D)D+3TossupLean D14-JunSteve Horsford ($2,290,819)Samuel James Peters ($654,592)
LOSSNew YorkNY01Open (R)R+3Lean RLean R23-AugBridget Fleming/key_candidates/bridget-fleming/Nicholas LaLota
LOSSNew YorkNY03Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D23-AugRobert ZimmermanNot available yetGeorge Santos
LOSSNew YorkNY17Sean Patrick Maloney (D)D+3Lean DLean D23-AugSean Patrick Maloney/key_candidates/sean-patrick-maloney/Michael Lawler
WINNew YorkNY18Open (D)D+1Lean DLean D23-AugPat RyanColin Schmitt
LOSSNew YorkNY19Pat Ryan (D) (special election)EVENTossupTossup23-AugJosh RileyMarc Molinaro
LOSSNew YorkNY22Open (R)D+1TossupTossup23-AugFrancis ConoleBrandon Williams
WINOhioOH01Steve Chabot (R)D+2TossupTossup3-MayGreg Landsman ($575,540)Steve Chabot ($881,071)
WINOhioOH09Marcy Kaptur (D)R+3Lean DTossup3-MayMarcy Kaptur ($1,051,851)J R Majewski ($418,741)
WINOhioOH13Open (D)R+1TossupTossup3-MayEmilia Sykes ($402,292)Madison Gesiotto Gilbert ($409,631)
LOSSOregonOR05Open (D)D+2TossupTossup17-MayJamie Mcleod-Skinner ($935,656)Lori Chavez-Deremer ($355,225)
WINPennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2TossupTossup17-MaySusan Wild ($3,006,083)Lisa Scheller ($1,189,912)
WINPennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4TossupTossup17-MayMatt Cartwright ($2,546,102)Jim Bognet ($713,988)
WINPennsylvaniaPA17Open (D)EVENTossupTossup17-MayChris Deluzio ($446,030)/key_candidates/chris-deluzio/Jeremy Shaffer ($175,352)
WINRhode IslandRI02Open (D)D+4TossupLean D13-SepSeth MagazinerAllen Fung
WINTexasTX28Henry Cuellar (D)D+3Lean DTossup24-MayHenry Cuellar ($3,832,815)Cassandra Garcia ($376,975)
WINTexasTX34Merged Seat (D)D+9TossupLean D24-MayVicente Gonzalez ($1,971,149)Mayra Nohemi Flores ($402,736)
LOSSVirginiaVA02Elaine Luria (D)R+2TossupTossup21-JunElaine Luria ($3,806,720)Jennifer Kiggans ($1,646,888)
WINVirginiaVA07Abigail Spanberger (D)D+1Lean DLean D21-JunAbigail Spanberger ($4,246,473)Yesli Vega ($356,105)
WINWashingtonWA08Kim Schrier (D)D+1TossupTossup2-AugKim Schrier ($4,136,518)Matt Larkin ($398,614)
LOSSWisconsinWI03Open (D)R+4Lean RLean R9-AugDerrick Van Orden

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