Take Action Texas

Hold: TX-28 (Cuellar); Flip: TX-34 (Gonzalez)

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project assigned Texas an overall grade of F for its redistricting maps. Texas got an F for both partisan fairness and geographic features. This leaves only two Congressional Districts that are worth our attention: TX-28, which is rated D+3; and TX-34, which is D+9. U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar is running for re-election to a seventh term in the 28th district. As one of eight children born to migrant farm workers in Laredo, Cuellar’s central issue is strengthening the chances of achieving the America Dream. He voted for the American Rescue Plan, the For the People Act, and the Equality Act. Cuellar is running against Republican Cassandra Garcia, former deputy state director for U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and DJT appointee to the Commission for the White House Hispanic Prosperity Initiative. On her website, she says she is ““pro God, pro-family and pro-life,” and opposes federal funds for abortions.

While Cuellar raised almost five times the amount of his Republican opponent, he spent heavily in a hotly contested primary. But the good news is that the latest Cook Political Report rating upgraded TX-28 from Tossup to Lean D. The new TX-34 is a merged seat now sought by U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr., the Democrat who currently represents TX-15. Gonzalez won his first election in 2016 by 19 points and increased his margin in 2018 to more than 20 points. In2020, his margin slipped to less than 3 points. Redistricting moved Gonzalez’s north McAllen home from the 15th to the 34th. This change was a good move for Gonzalez, as the 34th is more Democratic, rated Lean D, while his old district, the 15th, is rated Even. Gonzalez will face Rep. Mayra Flores, who was elected in a June special election to represent the 34th. (Gonzalez did not run in the special election). Flores’ campaign website proclaims she is proud to be “pro-God,” “pro-life,” “pro-Second Amendment,” and “pro-Oil and Gas.”

HOUSE COMPETITIVE RACES

ResultsStateDistrictIncumbentPVICook RatingDem CandidateRep Candidate
WINAlaskaAKALMary Peltola (Special Election)R+8Lean DTossupMary PeltolaMary PeltolaSarah Palin
LOSSArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2TossupLean R2-AugJevin D Hodge ($706,318)David S. Schweikert ($645,690)
LOSSArizonaAZ02Tom O'Halleran (D)R+6Lean RLean RTom O'HalleranEli Crane (R)
LOSSArizonaAZ06Open (D)R+3Lean RLean R2-AugKirsten Engel ($1,041,479)Juan Ciscomani ($1,658,991)
WINCaliforniaCA09Josh Harder (D)D+5Likely DLean D7-JunJosh Harder ($4,233,777)Thomas Patti ($498,400)
LOSSCaliforniaCA13Open (D)D+4TossupTossup7-JunAdam C. Gray ($664,425)John S Duarte ($234,450)
LOSSCaliforniaCA22David Valadao (R)D+5TossupTossup7-JunRudy Salas ($460,158)David Valadao ($1,752,035)
LOSSCaliforniaCA27Mike Garcia (R)D+4TossupTossup7-JunChristy Smith ($830,862)Michael Garcia ($3,682,830)
LOSSCaliforniaCA41Ken Calvert (R)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunWill RollinsKen Calvert
LOSSCaliforniaCA45Michelle Steel (R)D+2Lean RLean R7-JunJay Chen ($1,964,097)Michelle Steel ($2,744,333)
WINCaliforniaCA47Katie Porter (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunKatie Porter ($13,268,126)Scott Baugh ($1,368,313)
WINCaliforniaCA49Mike Levin (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunMike Levin ($2,594,411)Brian L Maryott ($774,200)
WINColoradoCO08New Seat (N)EVENTossupLean R28-JunYadira Caraveo ($567,794)Barbara Kirkmeyer ($291,808)
WINConnecticutCT05Jahana Hayes (D)D+3Lean DLean D9-AugJahana Hayes ($1,112,088)George S Logan ($375,091)
LOSSIowaIA03Cindy Axne (D)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunCindy AxneZach Nunn ($695,573)
WINIllinoisIL13Open (N)D+3Lean DLean D28-JunNikki Budzinski ($1,438,783)Regan Deering ($113,496)
WINIllinoisIL17Open (D)D+2TossupTossup28-JunEric Sorensen ($307,547)Esther Joy King ($2,299,211)
WINIndianaIN01Frank J. Mrvan (D)D+3TossupTossup3-MayFrank J Mrvan ($640,557)Jennifer-Ruth Green ($346,964)
WINKansasKS03Sharice Davids (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugSharice Davids ($3,513,158)Amanda Adkins ($1,767,432)
WINMaineME02Jared Golden (D)R+6TossupTossup14-JunJared Golden ($2,705,743)Bruce Lee Poliquin ($2,016,947)
WINMichiganMI03Peter Meijer (R)D+1Lean DLean D2-AugHillary ScholtenJohn Gibbs
WINMichiganMI07Elissa Slotkin (D)R+2TossupTossup2-AugElissa Slotkin ($4,756,462)Thomas More Barrett ($1,045,254)
WINMichiganMI08Dan Kildee (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugDaniel Kildee ($2,192,936)Paul Junge ($207,097)
WINMinnesotaMN02Angie Craig (D)D+1TossupTossup9-AugAngie Craig ($3,613,413)Tyler Kistner ($1,553,556)
WINNorth CarolinaNC01Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D17-MayDon Davis ($450,078)Sandy Smith ($789,108)
WINNorth CarolinaNC13Open (R)R+2TossupLean R17-MayWiley Nickel ($466,242)Robert Hines ($1,636,468)
WINNew HampshireNH01Chris Pappas (D)EVENTossupTossup13-SepChris PappasKaroline Leavitt
WINNew HampshireNH02Annie Kuster (D)D+2Lean DLean D13-SepAnnie KusterBob Burns
LOSSNew JerseyNJ07Tom Malinowski (D)R+1Lean RLean R7-JunTom Malinowski ($4,555,639)Thomas H. Kean ($1,844,184)
WINNew MexicoNM02Yvette Herrell (R)D+1TossupTossup7-JunGabriel Vasquez ($588,777)Stella Yvette Herrell ($2,397,713)
WINNevadaNV01Dina Titus (D)D+3TossupLean D14-Jun Dina Titus ($1,030,454)Mark Robertson ($415,107)
WINNevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1TossupTossup14-JunSusie Lee ($2,927,013)April Becker ($1,009,569)
WINNevadaNV04Steven Horsford (D)D+3TossupLean D14-JunSteve Horsford ($2,290,819)Samuel James Peters ($654,592)
LOSSNew YorkNY01Open (R)R+3Lean RLean R23-AugBridget Fleming/key_candidates/bridget-fleming/Nicholas LaLota
LOSSNew YorkNY03Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D23-AugRobert ZimmermanNot available yetGeorge Santos
LOSSNew YorkNY17Sean Patrick Maloney (D)D+3Lean DLean D23-AugSean Patrick Maloney/key_candidates/sean-patrick-maloney/Michael Lawler
WINNew YorkNY18Open (D)D+1Lean DLean D23-AugPat RyanColin Schmitt
LOSSNew YorkNY19Pat Ryan (D) (special election)EVENTossupTossup23-AugJosh RileyMarc Molinaro
LOSSNew YorkNY22Open (R)D+1TossupTossup23-AugFrancis ConoleBrandon Williams
WINOhioOH01Steve Chabot (R)D+2TossupTossup3-MayGreg Landsman ($575,540)Steve Chabot ($881,071)
WINOhioOH09Marcy Kaptur (D)R+3Lean DTossup3-MayMarcy Kaptur ($1,051,851)J R Majewski ($418,741)
WINOhioOH13Open (D)R+1TossupTossup3-MayEmilia Sykes ($402,292)Madison Gesiotto Gilbert ($409,631)
LOSSOregonOR05Open (D)D+2TossupTossup17-MayJamie Mcleod-Skinner ($935,656)Lori Chavez-Deremer ($355,225)
WINPennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2TossupTossup17-MaySusan Wild ($3,006,083)Lisa Scheller ($1,189,912)
WINPennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4TossupTossup17-MayMatt Cartwright ($2,546,102)Jim Bognet ($713,988)
WINPennsylvaniaPA17Open (D)EVENTossupTossup17-MayChris Deluzio ($446,030)/key_candidates/chris-deluzio/Jeremy Shaffer ($175,352)
WINRhode IslandRI02Open (D)D+4TossupLean D13-SepSeth MagazinerAllen Fung
WINTexasTX28Henry Cuellar (D)D+3Lean DTossup24-MayHenry Cuellar ($3,832,815)Cassandra Garcia ($376,975)
WINTexasTX34Merged Seat (D)D+9TossupLean D24-MayVicente Gonzalez ($1,971,149)Mayra Nohemi Flores ($402,736)
LOSSVirginiaVA02Elaine Luria (D)R+2TossupTossup21-JunElaine Luria ($3,806,720)Jennifer Kiggans ($1,646,888)
WINVirginiaVA07Abigail Spanberger (D)D+1Lean DLean D21-JunAbigail Spanberger ($4,246,473)Yesli Vega ($356,105)
WINWashingtonWA08Kim Schrier (D)D+1TossupTossup2-AugKim Schrier ($4,136,518)Matt Larkin ($398,614)
LOSSWisconsinWI03Open (D)R+4Lean RLean R9-AugDerrick Van Orden

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