This map shows key states. Light orange states have at least one key House race. Darker orange indicates states with multiple House races or a Senate race. Light purple is a Presidential swing state (only). Dark Purple: Presidential swing and other key races. It deserves your strongest focus! Check out the tables below the map for details about each race.
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Presidential Swing States
| State | 2020 Winner | EC Votes | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Sabato Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Biden | 11 | R+2 | Tossup | Tossup |
| Nevada | Biden | 6 | R+1 | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Biden | 19 | R+2 | Tossup | Tossup |
| Wisconsin | Biden | 10 | R+2 | Tossup | Tossup |
| Michigan | Biden | 15 | R+1 | Tossup | Tossup |
| Georgia | Biden | 16 | R+3 | Tossup | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Trump | 16 | R+3 | Tossup | Tossup |
The Partisan Lean measures how partisan a state or congressional district is as compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that state or district voted in the previous two presidential elections.
Key Senate Races
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Sabato Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | OPEN -- (Sinema (I)) | R+2 | Lean D | Lean D | Jul-30 | Ruben Gallego | Kari Lake |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | EVEN | Lean D | Lean D | Jun-11 | Jacky Rosen | Sam Brown |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey (D) | R+2 | Tossup | Lean D | Apr-23 | Bob Casey | Dave McCormick |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | R+2 | Tossup | Lean D | Aug-13 | Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde |
| Michigan | OPEN -- (Stabinow (D)) | EVEN | Tossup | Lean D | Aug-06 | Elissa Slotkin | Mike Rogers |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | R+6 | Tossup | Tossup | Mar-19 | Sherrod Brown | Bernie Moreno |
| Montana | Jon Tester (D) | R+11 | Lean R | Lean R | Jun-04 | Jon Tester | Tim Sheehy |
| Nebraska | Deb Fischer (R) | R+13 | Lean R | Lean R | May-14 | Dan Osborn (Ind) | Deb Fischer |
| Texas | Ted Cruz (R) | R+5 | Lean R | Likely R | Mar-05 | Colin Allred | Ted Cruz |
There are just eight competitive Senate races, six of which are currently held by Democrats, one currently held by a Republican, and the other currently held by Krysten Sinema (I) who is not seeking reelection. Michigan is also an open seat as Senator Debbie Stabinow (D) is retiring. Texas (Ted Cruz) and Florida (Rick Scott) may come into play with the evolving abortion issue. In Nebraska, Democrats won’t pick up a seat, but Republicans may lose one if the independent candidate wins, a real possibility.
Key House Races
Going into November, Democrats will need to flip five seats to take control of the House. Competitive seats exist all over the country, many in states which won’t be central in the Presidential race. Focusing on the several toss-up races in both NY and CA is one strategy for flipping the House blue.
