Take Action Michigan

Name: DemCast Democracy Briefing
Start: 2024-12-02T16:00:00-05:00
End: 2024-12-02T17:00:00-05:00
Location: virtual

Senate (Open - Slotkin), MI-07 (Open - Hertel), MI-08 (Open - McDonald Rivet), MI-10 (Flip - Marlinga)

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, in office since 2000, is not seeking a fifth term. Current MI-07 Representative Elissa Slotkin won the Aug. 6 primary by 80.5%. Slotkin served three tours in Iraq in the CIA, and later at the White House, State Department, and finally at the Pentagon.

Former state senator Curtis Hertel is running in a tossup race for the open seat in MI-07 but has outraised his opponent. Kristen McDonald Rivet is running in MI-08, which is open due to the incumbent’s retirement. Democrats hope to flip M-10. Former prosecutor and Federal Appeals Court judge Carl Marlinga is running against a one-term representative who had won by only 1,600 votes in 2022.
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MICHIGAN COMPETITIVE RACES

SENATE

State	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
Arizona	OPEN -- (Sinema (I))	R+2	Lean D	Lean D	Jul-30	Ruben Gallego	Kari Lake
Nevada	Jacky Rosen (D)	EVEN	Lean D	Lean D	Jun-11	Jacky Rosen	Sam Brown
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey (D)	R+2	Tossup	Lean D	Apr-23	Bob Casey	Dave McCormick
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin (D)	R+2	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-13	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde
Michigan	OPEN -- (Stabinow (D))	EVEN	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-06	Elissa Slotkin	Mike Rogers
Ohio	Sherrod Brown (D)	R+6	Tossup	Tossup	Mar-19	Sherrod Brown	Bernie Moreno
Montana	Jon Tester (D)	R+11	Lean R	Lean R	Jun-04	Jon Tester	Tim Sheehy
Nebraska	Deb Fischer (R)	R+13	Lean R	Lean R	May-14	Dan Osborn (Ind)	Deb Fischer
Texas	Ted Cruz (R)	R+5	Lean R	Likely R	Mar-05	Colin Allred	Ted Cruz

HOUSE

State	District	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Party in Power	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	$ Raised (Rep)	Fundraising Target
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	R+8	D	Tossup	Aug-20	Mary Peltola	$11,383,692	Multiple	N/A
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+2	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Amish Shah	$5,499,151	David Schweikert	$3,806,313	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Kirsten Engel	$7,713,062	Juan Ciscomani	$6,281,198
California	CA-47	OPEN (Porter)	D+3	D	Lean D	Mar-5	David Min	$6,121,731	Scott Baugh	$4,134,243	Yes
California	CA-13	John Duarte	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Adam Gray	$5,416,262	John Duarte	$4,147,092	Yes
California	CA-22	David Valadao	D+5	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Rudy Salas	$5,772,500	David Valadao	$4,605,340	Yes
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	George Whitesides	$9,258,624	Mike Garcia	$5,978,261
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R+3	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Will Rollins	$11,510,839	Ken Calvert	$7,531,776
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	D+2	R	Tossup	Mar-5	Derek Tran	$5,000,888	Michelle Steel	$9,441,899
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	EVEN	D	Toss Up	Jun-25	Yadira Caraveo	$7,303,139	Gabe Evans	$2,297,545
Colorado	CO-03	OPEN (Boebert)	R+7	R	Likely R	Jun-25	Adam Frisch	$16,502,296	Jeff Hurd	$2,410,147
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Jahana Hayes	$3,966,896	George Logan	$2,633,764
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+2	D	Likely D	Mar-19	Eric Sorensen	$4,721,699	Joseph McGraw	$1,385,103
Indiana	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	D+3	D	Likely D	May-7	Frank Mrvan	$3,055,858	Randy Niemeyer	$1,024,067
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jun-4	Lanon Baccam	$4,826,753	Zach Nunn	$5,227,097
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	R+6	D	Toss Up	Jun-11	Jared Golden	$7,062,983	Austin Theriault	$3,209,611
Michigan	MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin)	R+2	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Curtis Hertel	$7,045,643	Tom Barrett	$4,622,111
Michigan	MI-08	OPEN (Kildee)	R+1	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Kristen McDonald Rivet	$5,255,715	Paul Junge	$5,114,278
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R+3	R	Lean R	Aug-6	Carl Marlinga	$2,596,072	John James	$8,287,451
Minnesota	MN-02	Angie Craig	D+1	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Angie Craig	$7,852,933	Joe Teirab	$2,966,229
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	EVEN	R	Tossup	May-14	Tony Vargas	$6,746,766	Don Bacon	$5,944,820
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-11	Susie Lee	$5,667,750	Drew Johnson	$1,296,245
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean	R+1	R	Lean R	Jun-4	Sue Altman	$5,638,730	Thomas Kean	$5,558,101
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D+1	D	Toss Up	Jun-4	Gabe Vasquez	$6,483,548	Yvette Herrell	$3,958,577
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Pat Ryan	$7,543,210	Alison Esposito	$2,176,423
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	D+3	R	Lean D	Jun-25	John Mannion	$3,555,502	Brandon Williams	$3,938,363
New York	NY-04	Anthony DEsposito	D+5	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Laura Gillen	$6,127,580	Anthony DEsposito	$4,419,902
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+3	R	Lean R	Jun-25	Mondaire Jones	$9,057,157	Mike Lawler	$7,777,943
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Josh Riley	$8,760,534	Marc Molinaro	$5,119,951
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-5	Don Davis	$5,599,492	Laurie Buckhout	$4,279,685
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+3	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Marcy Kaptur	$4,483,047	Derek Merrin	$1,480,664
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	R+1	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Emilia Sykes	$4,949,666	Kevin Coughlin	$1,443,635
Oregon	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+4	D	Lean D	May-21	Andrea Salinas	$5,007,770	Mike Erickson	$544,612
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	D+2	R	Tossup	May-21	Janelle Bynum	$6,436,776	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	$5,698,142
Pennsylvania	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	EVEN	D	Lean D	Apr-23	Chris Deluzio	$4,700,672	Rob Mercuri	$1,681,625
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	R+2	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Susan Wild	$8,160,815	Ryan MacKenzie	$1,507,653
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	R+4	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Matt Cartwright	$8,124,143	Robert Bresnahan	$4,124,363
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry	R+5	R	Toss Up	Apr-23	Janelle Stelson	$5,379,810	Scott Perry	$3,862,884
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	D+9	D	Lean D	May-28	Vicente Gonzalez	$2,853,782	Mayra Flores	$6,306,400
Virginia	VA-07	OPEN (Spanberger)	D+1	D	Tossup	Jun-18	Eugene Vindman	$15,686,040	Derrick Anderson	$2,851,582
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R+2	R	Lean R	Jun-18	Missy Cotter Smasal	$2,784,150	Jen Kiggans	$5,969,764
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	R+5	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	$10,699,161	Joe Kent	$2,311,352
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+4	R	Lean R	Aug-13	Rebecca Cooke	$5,300,456	Derrick Van Orden	$6,627,347

Coming off historic losses in 2022, the Michigan Republican State Party is in dire financial straits, and the infighting has been fierce. A report issued by a GOP activist says most party bank accounts are empty. This chaos and lack of capital likely will provide a boon for the state’s Democrats.

The House races:

MI-07: Both parties are eyeing the open seat in MI-07, a district of growing diversity. The outcome of the election likely will hinge on voter turnout. It is rated a Tossup.
M-08: Redistricting made MI-08 more red, but incumbent Kildee won by 10 points in 2022, good news for whoever wins the Democratic primary in August. The district is rated Toss-up.
MI-10: A suburban district north of Detroit, MI-10 is eminently flippable. It is rated Lean R, but the current Republican incumbent, who had a great financial advantage, won by only 1,600 votes in 2022.

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