Key Races ▸ By State ▸ California

California

House · CA-13 · Adam GrayHOLD House · CA-22 · Randy VillegasFLIP House · CA-48 · Marni von WilpertFLIP

Primary: Jun 26, 2026

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Under Democratic leadership, California voters approved a new redistricting plan that may yield as many as four additional Democratic Congressional seats. While California has the world’s fourth largest economy, one in three likely voters identify the cost of living and inflation as major concerns with 7 in 10 voters feeling that their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. Tariffs have reduced the state’s trade with its top trade partner, China, by nearly 7% in the past year. Soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles fell 80%. Authoritarian immigration practices are stirring fear and creating employment issues for business owners.



California has a strong Democratic voting population, but there are pockets of conservative communities. Two Republican districts – CA-22 and CA-48 – are possible flips. In addition, CA-13 and CA-45 have Democratic incumbents that need help to hold their seats.

  • Republican Incumbent Congressman David Valadao, R CA-22,. voted for the Big Ugly Bill despite representing a district where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 12 % and two-thirds of his constituents rely on Medi-Cal for their health care. He repeatedly promised not to vote for any reductions in the program.
  • In CA-22 where 74% are Hispanic/Latino, the economic situation is stark –  29.5% of children live in households with incomes ≤ 100% of the federal poverty level vs 29.4% nationally; 247.3 deaths per 100K from cardiovascular disease vs 201 per 100K nationally; 38.5% of public-school students were chronically absent vs 29.4 nationally; 64.1% of population lives in a designated primary care shortage area vs 7.8% nationally; food insecurity impacts 32.3% adults vs 16% nationally.
  • In CA-48, incumbent Republican Rep. Darrill Issa, defended Trump against impeachment and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2025 Issa filed legislation to protect Trump's agenda from judicial challenges.
  • CA-48 voters consider housing costs to be a major issue with 57.3% of households spending more than 30% of income on housing vs 49.9% nationally.
  • In CA13 Adam Gray, a moderate Democrat, won the 2024 election by less than 1% and will be targeted for a Republican flip in 2026.
    Serving on two committees, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gray was appointed whip of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition and is a member of the New Democratic Coalition caucus.
  • Gray’s recent comments outline his focus “Going forward, my focus is simple: lower health care costs and protect the people I represent from becoming pawns in political games.
  • In CA45, Derek Tran won the 2024 election by just 0.2%, and his district is considered a 2026 Democratic battleground.
  • The son of a Vietnamese refugee, a veteran and a small business owner, Tran is a member of the House Armed Services Committee and House Small Business Committee where he focuses on national security, economic issues, consumer protections, and access to capital for small business owners and entrepreneurs. His work as an attorney focused on consumer and worker issues.
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    Key Races in California

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    Senate

    StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
    IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Lean R ↑65.7% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$6,276,527Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$10,217,845
    MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup62.8% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$14,514,336Mike RogersS4MI00595$10,898,177
    New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D89.4% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26
    North CarolinaNorth CarolinaOPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R))R+1Lean D89.9% (D)Tossup3-Mar-26Roy CooperS6NC00407$34,975,789Michael WhatleyS6NC00415$11,272,504
    AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up52.0% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$18,545,132Dan SullivanS4AK00214$11,735,898
    GeorgiaGeorgiaJon Ossoff (D)R+1Lean D92.2% (D)Lean D19-May-26Jon OssoffS8GA00180$97,986,263Mike CollinsS6GA00390$7,409,350
    MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup63.6% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$0Susan CollinsS6ME00159$18,930,078
    OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up51.1% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$38,566,234Jon HustedS6OH00304$14,360,028
    TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Lean R50.6% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$68,555,930Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$9,248,699

    House

    StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
    ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Toss Up75.5% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$1,830,193Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$2,528,497Yes
    ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up77.9% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$7,354,599Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$6,172,867Yes
    CaliforniaCA-13Adam Gray (D)DemocraticD+2Lean D97.1% (D)26-Jun-26Adam GrayH2CA13115$4,191,397Kevin LincolnH4CA09093$2,237,084
    CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up79.9% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$2,645,560David ValadaoH2CA20094$4,927,602Yes
    CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D89.6% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$2,174,872Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,258,836
    ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up80.0% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$4,336,988Gabe EvansH4CO08034$5,393,673Yes
    FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R60.2% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$2,337,125
    FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R68.1% (R)18-Aug-26
    FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up71.0% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,300,107
    IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up72.2% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$7,051,745Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$7,208,271
    IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Lean R ↑56.0% (R)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$1,628,201Joe MitchellH6IA02237$1,938,593
    IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Toss Up69.7% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$5,293,773Zach NunnH2IA03119$4,869,249
    MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R ↑67.9% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$2,620,011Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$4,093,991
    MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up56.6% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$1,119,198Tom BarrettH2MI07123$6,306,828
    MichiganMI-08Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)DemocraticR+1Lean D95.5% (D)4-Aug-26Kristen McDonald RivetH4MI08218$5,644,876Thomas SmithH6MI08312$0
    MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Lean R61.8% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$1,211,489Michael BouchardH6MI10359$1,433,729
    North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Lean R53.3% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$4,287,386Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$3,793,077
    North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R ↑61.8% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$3,052,354Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$939,985
    NebraskaNE-02OPEN (Don Bacon (R))RepublicanD+3Lean D92.3% (D)12-May-26Denise PowellH6NE02174$2,668,287Brinker HardingH6NE02208$2,034,386
    New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up76.5% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$4,272,034Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$4,892,807
    New MexicoNM-02Gabe Vasquez (D)DemocraticEVENLean D94.1% (D)2-Jun-26Gabe VasquezH2NM02191$3,784,102Greg CunninghamH6NM02127$1,510,080
    NevadaNV-03Susie Lee (D)DemocraticD+1Lean D89.6% (D)9-Jun-26Susie LeeH6NV04020$4,401,421Marty O'Donnell H6NV03204$4,055,410
    New YorkNY-03Tom Suozzi (D)DemocraticEVENLean D92.7% (D)26-Jun-26Tom SuozziH6NY03247$5,456,698Michael LiPetriH0NY02267$1,666,542
    New YorkNY-04Laura Gillen (D)DemocraticD+2Lean D95.7% (D)23-Jun-26Laura GillenH2NY04244$5,097,222
    Jeanine Driscoll
    		H6NY04211$264,824
    New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up69.3% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$4,317,457Mike LawlerH2NY17162$8,172,046
    New YorkNY-19Josh Riley (D)DemocraticD+1Likely D ↑92.0% (D)23-Jun-26Josh RileyH8NY22177$4,825,666
    Peter Oberacker
    		H6NY19268$1,237,179
    OhioOH-01Greg Landsman (D)DemocraticR+1Lean D89.5% (D)26-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$4,633,250Eric ConroyH6OH01138$1,513,614
    OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up69.3% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$603,156Max MillerH2OH16051$2,142,562
    OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up70.2% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$4,303,416Derek MerrinH4OH09169$1,508,953
    PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Toss Up69.9% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$2,392,215Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$4,357,405
    PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up61.5% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$4,609,589Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$5,234,586
    TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Lean R51.0% (R)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$2,960,462Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$5,273,960
    PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up73.3% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$6,364,069Scott PerryH2PA04135$5,194,925
    TexasTX-28Henry Cuellar (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D89.5% (D)3-Mar-26Henry CuellarH2TX23082$2,231,952Tano TijerinaH6TX28124$1,399,881
    TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up80.5% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$3,773,915Eric FloresH6TX34080$2,874,990
    VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R60.0% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$2,140,930Robert WittmanH8VA01147$4,053,142
    VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up70.5% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$4,659,795Jen KiggansH2VA02064$5,954,338
    WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Toss Up83.6% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$6,292,683John BraunH6WA03275$2,051,284
    WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up60.5% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$8,601,146Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$7,526,052

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