Early Voting Begins: Mon, Oct 5
Under Democratic leadership, California voters approved a new redistricting plan that may yield as many as four additional Democratic Congressional seats. While California has the world’s fourth largest economy, one in three likely voters identify the cost of living and inflation as major concerns with 7 in 10 voters feeling that their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. Tariffs have reduced the state’s trade with its top trade partner, China, by nearly 7% in the past year. Soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles fell 80%. Authoritarian immigration practices are stirring fear and creating employment issues for business owners.
California has a strong Democratic voting population, but there are pockets of conservative communities. Two Republican districts – CA-22 and CA-48 – are possible flips. In addition, CA-13 and CA-45 have Democratic incumbents that need help to hold their seats.
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Votehub Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Iowa | OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R)) | R+6 | Toss Up ↑ | 66.4% (R) | Lean R | 2-Jun-26 | Josh Turek | S6IA00298 | $6,276,527 | Ashley Hinson | S6IA00314 | $10,217,845 |
| Michigan | Michigan | OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D)) | R+0 | Tossup | 59.8% (D) | Tossup | 4-Aug-26 | Abdul El-Sayed | S6MI00418 | $14,514,336 | Mike Rogers | S4MI00595 | $10,898,177 |
| New Hampshire | New Hampshire | OPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D)) | D+2 | Lean D | 88.7% (D) | Lean D | 8-Sep-26 | ||||||
| North Carolina | North Carolina | OPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R)) | R+1 | Lean D | 89.9% (D) | Tossup | 3-Mar-26 | Roy Cooper | S6NC00407 | $34,975,789 | Michael Whatley | S6NC00415 | $11,272,504 |
| Alaska | Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | R+6 | Toss Up | 50.6% (D) | Lean R | 18-Aug-26 | Mary Peltola | S6AK00276 | $18,545,132 | Dan Sullivan | S4AK00214 | $11,735,898 |
| Georgia | Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | R+1 | Lean D | 92.2% (D) | Lean D | 19-May-26 | Jon Ossoff | S8GA00180 | $97,986,263 | Mike Collins | S6GA00390 | $7,409,350 |
| Maine | Maine | Susan Collins (R) | D+4 | Tossup | 62.6% (D) | Tossup | 9-Jun-26 | Troy Jackson | S6ME00464 | $0 | Susan Collins | S6ME00159 | $18,930,078 |
| Ohio | Ohio | Jon Husted (R) | R+5 | Toss Up | 51.6% (D) | Lean R | 5-May-26 | Sherrod Brown | S6OH00163 | $38,566,234 | Jon Husted | S6OH00304 | $14,360,028 |
| Texas | Texas | John Cornyn (R) | R+6 | Toss Up ↑ | 51.7% (R) | Lean R | 3-Mar-26 | James Talarico | S6TX00479 | $68,555,930 | Ken Paxton | S6TX00388 | $9,248,699 |
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