Key Races ▸ By State ▸ California

California

House · CA-13 · Adam GrayHOLD House · CA-22 · Randy VillegasFLIP House · CA-48 · Marni von WilpertFLIP

Early Voting Begins: Mon, Oct 5

Under Democratic leadership, California voters approved a new redistricting plan that may yield as many as four additional Democratic Congressional seats. While California has the world’s fourth largest economy, one in three likely voters identify the cost of living and inflation as major concerns with 7 in 10 voters feeling that their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. Tariffs have reduced the state’s trade with its top trade partner, China, by nearly 7% in the past year. Soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles fell 80%. Authoritarian immigration practices are stirring fear and creating employment issues for business owners.



California has a strong Democratic voting population, but there are pockets of conservative communities. Two Republican districts – CA-22 and CA-48 – are possible flips. In addition, CA-13 and CA-45 have Democratic incumbents that need help to hold their seats.

  • Republican Incumbent Congressman David Valadao, R CA-22,. voted for the Big Ugly Bill despite representing a district where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 12 % and two-thirds of his constituents rely on Medi-Cal for their health care. He repeatedly promised not to vote for any reductions in the program.
  • In CA-22 where 74% are Hispanic/Latino, the economic situation is stark –  29.5% of children live in households with incomes ≤ 100% of the federal poverty level vs 29.4% nationally; 247.3 deaths per 100K from cardiovascular disease vs 201 per 100K nationally; 38.5% of public-school students were chronically absent vs 29.4 nationally; 64.1% of population lives in a designated primary care shortage area vs 7.8% nationally; food insecurity impacts 32.3% adults vs 16% nationally.
  • In CA-48, incumbent Republican Rep. Darrill Issa, defended Trump against impeachment and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2025 Issa filed legislation to protect Trump's agenda from judicial challenges.
  • CA-48 voters consider housing costs to be a major issue with 57.3% of households spending more than 30% of income on housing vs 49.9% nationally.
  • In CA13 Adam Gray, a moderate Democrat, won the 2024 election by less than 1% and will be targeted for a Republican flip in 2026.
    Serving on two committees, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gray was appointed whip of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition and is a member of the New Democratic Coalition caucus.
  • Gray’s recent comments outline his focus “Going forward, my focus is simple: lower health care costs and protect the people I represent from becoming pawns in political games.
  • In CA45, Derek Tran won the 2024 election by just 0.2%, and his district is considered a 2026 Democratic battleground.
  • The son of a Vietnamese refugee, a veteran and a small business owner, Tran is a member of the House Armed Services Committee and House Small Business Committee where he focuses on national security, economic issues, consumer protections, and access to capital for small business owners and entrepreneurs. His work as an attorney focused on consumer and worker issues.
  • State Map

    Key Races in California

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    Senate

    StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
    IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑53.5% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$24,290,521Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$14,147,973
    KansasKansasRoger Marshall (R)R+8Toss Up ↑51.6% (R)4-Aug-26Adam HamiltonS6KS00312$19,175,044Roger MarshallS0KS00315$7,546,611
    MinnesotaMinnesotaOPEN (Smith) (D)D+3Lean D88.7% (D)Peggy FlanaganS6MN00440$11,563,963Michele TafoyaS6MN00556$12,501,786
    South CarolinaSouth CarolinaDarline Graham (R)R+8Lean R73.0% (R)Annie AndrewsS6SC04239$24,216,841Darline GrahamS6SC04437$1,917,646
    NebraskaPete Ricketts (R)R+10Lean R ↑70.6% (R)Likely R12-May-26Dan Osborn, INDS4NE00207$11,029,845Pete RickettsS6NE00129$14,546,959
    MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Lean D ↑78.6% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$53,830,872Mike RogersS4MI00595$23,016,439
    New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D ↑90.2% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$23,703,648John E. SununuS6NH00208$5,681,528
    AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up65.7% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$36,887,509Dan SullivanS4AK00214$14,107,205
    MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup70.6% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$26,872,874Susan CollinsS6ME00159$25,225,468
    OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up69.0% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$68,409,200Jon HustedS6OH00304$19,894,786
    TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑70.2% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$146,349,912Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$22,327,474

    House

    StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
    OhioOH-15Mike Carey (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R69.4% (R)Don LeonardH6OH15112$1,329,844Mike CareyH2OH15228$4,184,981
    FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6Lean R ↑72.0% (R)18-Aug-26Leela GrayH6FL13312$2,917,665Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$4,351,792
    FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R)R+6Lean R ↑66.6% (R)18-Aug-26Eliott RodriguezH6FL27098$1,567,393Maria Elvira SalazarH8FL27185$2,519,401
    MontanaMT-01OPEN (Zinke (R))R+5Toss Up ↑56.9% (D)2-Jun-26Sam ForstagH6MT01137$4,312,110Aaron FlintH6MT01152$2,856,139
    WisconsinWI-01Bryan Steil (R)RepublicanR+2Lean R ↑63.9% (R)11-Aug-26Mitchell BermanH6WI01283$1,977,099Bryan SteilH8WI01156$6,393,553
    TexasTX-35OPEN (Casar) (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑69.9% (D)3-Mar-26Johnny GarciaH6TX35095$2,201,579Carlos de la CruzH6TX35087$2,021,118
    ColoradoCO-05Jeff Crank (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up ↑56.1% (R)30-Jun-26Jessica KillinH6CO05324$5,593,463Jeff CrankH6CO05142$2,872,434
    KentuckyKY-06OPEN (Barr) (R)R+7Toss Up ↑58.1% (R)19-May-26Zach DemboH6KY06184$3,205,462Ralph AlvaradoH6KY06192$2,307,369
    MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden (D))R+4Lean R ↑63.1% (R)9-Jun-26H6ME02171$2,964,964Paul LePageH6ME02148$3,299,130
    PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian Fitzpatrick (R)D+1Toss Up ↑52.7% (R)19-May-26Bob HarvieH6PA01181$3,167,942Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277$8,021,376
    MinnesotaMN-01Brad Finstad (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R64.9% (R)Jacob JohnsonH6MN01190$3,507,568Brad FinstadH2MN01223$2,765,870
    New YorkNY-21OPEN (Stefanik) (R)RepublicanR+10Lean R80.9% (R)Blake GendebienH6NY21199$7,655,529Anthony ConstantinoH6NY21157$17,064,951
    OhioOH-10Mike Turner (R)RepublicanR+4Lean R74.1% (R)Kristina KnickerbockerH6OH10121$1,015,878Mike TurnerH2OH03067$1,315,094
    South CarolinaSC-01OPEN (Mace) (R)RepublicanR+6Toss Up ↑58.2% (R)Nancy LacoreH6SC01359$4,865,630Jenny HoneycuttH6SC01334$1,291,996
    AlaskaAK-ALNick Begich III (R)R+6Lean R ↑77.1% (R)18-Aug-26Bill Hill (IND)H6AK01092$2,630,793Nick Begich IIIH2AK01083$6,438,904
    ArizonaAZ-02Eli Crane (R)R+7Lean R ↑57.3% (R)21-Jul-26Jonathan NezH4AZ02184$5,805,341Eli CraneH2AZ01354$11,904,946
    TexasTX-23VACANT (0)R+7Lean R56.3% (R)Katy Padilla StoutH6TX23273$1,117,715Brandon HerreraH4TX23120$3,115,205
    NevadaNV-02OPEN (Amodei) (R)RepublicanR+7Lean R72.8% (R)Teresa Benitez-ThompsonH6NV02362$1,054,467David FlippoH4NV04108$2,934,108
    ColoradoCO-04Lauren Boebert (R)RepublicanR+9Lean R55.8% (R)Eileen LaubacherH6CO04202$13,700,426Lauren BoebertH0CO03165$1,226,253
    AlabamaAL-02Shomari Figures (D)DemocraticR+7Lean R53.0% (R)Shomari FiguresH4AL02170$2,706,098Rhett MarquesH6AL01086$1,716,374
    FloridaFL-07Cory Mills (R)R+5Lean R ↑69.6% (R)18-Aug-26Bale DaltonH6FL07215$2,334,664Ryan ElijahH6FL07231$818,460
    FloridaFL-09Darren Soto (D)R+8Lean R ↑59.4% (R)18-Aug-26Darren SotoH6FL09179$3,652,280Dan GreenH6FL09294$2,692,713
    IndianaIN-05Victoria Spartz (R)R+8Lean R85.9% (R)J.D. FordH6IN05307$1,410,737Victoria SpartzH0IN05326$2,192,717
    VirginiaVA-05John McGuire (R)R+6Lean R70.1% (R)Tom PerrielloH8VA05106$3,762,301John McGuireH0VA07133$2,419,702
    ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑76.5% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$5,654,454Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$3,799,654Yes
    ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑83.1% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$11,242,473Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$7,649,794Yes
    CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up86.1% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$5,942,030David ValadaoH2CA20094$6,325,324Yes
    CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D87.0% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$4,966,576Jim DesmondH6CA49128$3,177,972
    ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑89.2% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$9,459,070Gabe EvansH4CO08034$7,248,106Yes
    FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑72.5% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$4,930,537Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,731,428
    FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑57.4% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$4,619,822Casey AskarH6FL22248$7,418,255
    FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑74.2% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,707,925Scott SingerH6FL23188$3,255,313
    IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Lean D ↑81.5% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$9,905,570Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$9,101,898
    IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Toss Up ↑63.6% (D)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$3,917,994Joe MitchellH6IA02237$2,916,069
    IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Lean D ↑76.5% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$8,070,402Zach NunnH2IA03119$6,123,740
    MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑61.5% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$4,699,153Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$5,562,775
    MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up62.2% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$4,160,041Tom BarrettH2MI07123$8,238,468
    MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑63.8% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$4,159,693Michael BouchardH6MI10359$2,884,259
    North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up ↑80.4% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$5,805,482Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$4,787,737
    North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Lean D ↑82.7% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$5,869,453Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$1,025,828
    New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑86.6% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$8,757,003Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$6,128,373
    New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up62.0% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$10,706,692Mike LawlerH2NY17162$10,317,627
    OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up78.6% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$3,720,342Max MillerH2OH16051$3,324,942
    OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Lean D ↑76.9% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$5,910,481Derek MerrinH4OH09169$2,217,821
    PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑80.0% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$5,347,353Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$5,296,664
    PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Lean D ↑75.7% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$7,502,359Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$6,519,139
    TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Toss Up ↑82.7% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$6,819,247Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$6,814,267
    PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑74.1% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$9,234,260Scott PerryH2PA04135$6,791,519
    TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑89.1% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$5,211,344Eric FloresH6TX34080$4,009,074
    VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑50.5% (D)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$4,604,761Robert WittmanH8VA01147$5,432,689
    VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑79.7% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$8,044,064Jen KiggansH2VA02064$7,589,812
    WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Lean D ↑83.9% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$9,472,267John BraunH6WA03275$3,311,756
    WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑71.8% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$12,675,997Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$9,101,596

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