Key Races ▸ By State ▸ California

California

House · CA-13 · Adam GrayHOLD House · CA-22 · Randy VillegasFLIP House · CA-48 · Marni von WilpertFLIP

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Under Democratic leadership, California voters approved a new redistricting plan that may yield as many as four additional Democratic Congressional seats. While California has the world’s fourth largest economy, one in three likely voters identify the cost of living and inflation as major concerns with 7 in 10 voters feeling that their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. Tariffs have reduced the state’s trade with its top trade partner, China, by nearly 7% in the past year. Soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles fell 80%. Authoritarian immigration practices are stirring fear and creating employment issues for business owners.



California has a strong Democratic voting population, but there are pockets of conservative communities. Two Republican districts – CA-22 and CA-48 – are possible flips. In addition, CA-13 and CA-45 have Democratic incumbents that need help to hold their seats.

  • Republican Incumbent Congressman David Valadao, R CA-22,. voted for the Big Ugly Bill despite representing a district where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 12 % and two-thirds of his constituents rely on Medi-Cal for their health care. He repeatedly promised not to vote for any reductions in the program.
  • In CA-22 where 74% are Hispanic/Latino, the economic situation is stark –  29.5% of children live in households with incomes ≤ 100% of the federal poverty level vs 29.4% nationally; 247.3 deaths per 100K from cardiovascular disease vs 201 per 100K nationally; 38.5% of public-school students were chronically absent vs 29.4 nationally; 64.1% of population lives in a designated primary care shortage area vs 7.8% nationally; food insecurity impacts 32.3% adults vs 16% nationally.
  • In CA-48, incumbent Republican Rep. Darrill Issa, defended Trump against impeachment and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2025 Issa filed legislation to protect Trump's agenda from judicial challenges.
  • CA-48 voters consider housing costs to be a major issue with 57.3% of households spending more than 30% of income on housing vs 49.9% nationally.
  • In CA13 Adam Gray, a moderate Democrat, won the 2024 election by less than 1% and will be targeted for a Republican flip in 2026.
    Serving on two committees, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Gray was appointed whip of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition and is a member of the New Democratic Coalition caucus.
  • Gray’s recent comments outline his focus “Going forward, my focus is simple: lower health care costs and protect the people I represent from becoming pawns in political games.
  • In CA45, Derek Tran won the 2024 election by just 0.2%, and his district is considered a 2026 Democratic battleground.
  • The son of a Vietnamese refugee, a veteran and a small business owner, Tran is a member of the House Armed Services Committee and House Small Business Committee where he focuses on national security, economic issues, consumer protections, and access to capital for small business owners and entrepreneurs. His work as an attorney focused on consumer and worker issues.
  • State Map

    Key Races in California

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    Senate

    StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
    IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑57.1% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$20,152,882Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$13,472,386
    KansasKansasRoger Marshall (R)R+8Toss Up ↑66.0% (R)4-Aug-26Adam HamiltonS6KS00312$13,533,711Roger MarshallS0KS00315$7,006,240
    MinnesotaMinnesotaOPEN (Smith) (D)D+3Lean D84.9% (D)Peggy FlanaganS6MN00440$10,301,879Michele TafoyaS6MN00556$9,661,129
    South CarolinaSouth CarolinaDarline Graham (R)R+8Lean R82.6% (R)Annie AndrewsS6SC04239$20,173,697Darline GrahamS6SC04437$1,827,626
    MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup71.7% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$45,175,567Mike RogersS4MI00595$20,565,706
    New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D ↑88.3% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$21,500,073John E. SununuS6NH00208$5,334,886
    AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up68.1% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$32,623,722Dan SullivanS4AK00214$13,760,055
    MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup63.5% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$20,431,280Susan CollinsS6ME00159$24,131,410
    OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up65.7% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$61,686,820Jon HustedS6OH00304$19,208,763
    TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑62.6% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$128,772,835Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$19,497,810

    House

    StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
    New YorkNY-21OPEN (Stefanik) (R)RepublicanR+10Lean R83.1% (R)Blake GendebienH6NY21199$7,184,413Anthony ConstantinoH6NY21157$17,064,872
    FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6Lean R ↑76.6% (R)18-Aug-26Leela GrayH6FL13312$2,567,273Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$4,089,080
    FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R)R+6Lean R ↑68.4% (R)18-Aug-26Eliott RodriguezH6FL27098$1,339,984Maria Elvira SalazarH8FL27185$2,368,783
    MontanaMT-01OPEN (Zinke (R))R+5Toss Up ↑57.4% (R)2-Jun-26Sam ForstagH6MT01137$3,690,160Aaron FlintH6MT01152$2,640,894
    WisconsinWI-01Bryan Steil (R)RepublicanR+2Lean R ↑66.9% (R)11-Aug-26Mitchell BermanH6WI01283$1,610,305Bryan SteilH8WI01156$6,251,359
    TexasTX-35OPEN (Casar) (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑65.5% (D)3-Mar-26Johnny GarciaH6TX35095$1,917,104Carlos de la CruzH6TX35087$1,892,231
    ColoradoCO-05Jeff Crank (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R65.0% (R)30-Jun-26Jessica KillinH6CO05324$4,968,409Jeff CrankH6CO05142$2,783,883
    KentuckyKY-06OPEN (Barr) (R)R+7Toss Up ↑62.7% (R)19-May-26Zach DemboH6KY06184$2,871,241Ralph AlvaradoH6KY06192$2,187,944
    MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden (D))R+4Lean R ↑61.5% (R)9-Jun-26H6ME02171$2,671,904Paul LePageH6ME02148$3,233,257
    PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian Fitzpatrick (R)D+1Lean R ↑63.5% (R)19-May-26Bob HarvieH6PA01181$2,895,901Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277$7,774,187
    MinnesotaMN-01Brad Finstad (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R71.9% (R)Jacob JohnsonH6MN01190$3,205,255Brad FinstadH2MN01223$2,608,655
    OhioOH-10Mike Turner (R)RepublicanR+4Lean R79.5% (R)Kristina KnickerbockerH6OH10121$883,182Mike TurnerH2OH03067$1,236,096
    OhioOH-15Mike Carey (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R74.3% (R)Don LeonardH6OH15112$1,145,777Mike CareyH2OH15228$4,002,961
    South CarolinaSC-01OPEN (Mace) (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R64.9% (R)Nancy LacoreH6SC01359$4,429,295Jenny HoneycuttH6SC01334$1,193,975
    AlaskaAK-ALNick Begich III (R)R+6Lean R ↑80.5% (R)18-Aug-26Bill Hill (IND)H6AK01092$2,348,817Nick Begich IIIH2AK01083$6,320,644
    ArizonaAZ-02Eli Crane (R)R+7Lean R ↑69.0% (R)21-Jul-26Jonathan NezH4AZ02184$5,361,320Eli CraneH2AZ01354$11,551,401
    TexasTX-23VACANT (0)R+7Lean R57.6% (R)Katy Padilla StoutH6TX23273$1,117,715Brandon HerreraH4TX23120$3,115,205
    NevadaNV-02OPEN (Amodei) (R)RepublicanR+7Lean R74.0% (R)Teresa Benitez-ThompsonH6NV02362$1,054,467David FlippoH4NV04108$2,934,108
    ColoradoCO-04Lauren Boebert (R)RepublicanR+9Lean R62.7% (R)Eileen LaubacherH6CO04202$13,700,426Lauren BoebertH0CO03165$1,226,253
    AlabamaAL-02Shomari Figures (D)DemocraticR+7Lean R60.5% (R)Shomari FiguresH4AL02170$2,706,098Rhett MarquesH6AL01086$1,716,374
    ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑77.3% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$5,031,605Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$3,432,885Yes
    ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑83.1% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$10,760,731Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$7,474,803Yes
    CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up83.9% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$5,465,022David ValadaoH2CA20094$6,058,553Yes
    CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D86.4% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$4,518,377Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,985,951
    ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑88.9% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$8,578,254Gabe EvansH4CO08034$6,904,664Yes
    FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑72.4% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$4,502,017Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,614,968
    FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑57.2% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$3,930,912Casey AskarH6FL22248$4,969,075
    FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑77.3% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,643,469Scott SingerH6FL23188$2,989,409
    IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Lean D ↑82.6% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$9,468,352Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$8,924,570
    IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Toss Up ↑60.3% (D)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$3,524,080Joe MitchellH6IA02237$2,683,808
    IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Lean D ↑76.7% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$7,654,894Zach NunnH2IA03119$5,968,952
    MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑60.0% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$4,310,699Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$5,367,471
    MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up56.5% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$3,665,521Tom BarrettH2MI07123$7,891,381
    MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑65.4% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$3,518,814Michael BouchardH6MI10359$2,568,845
    North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up ↑71.5% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$5,572,578Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$4,726,318
    North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Lean D ↑74.2% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$5,401,765Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$1,025,828
    New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑87.1% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$8,193,416Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$5,867,419
    New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up61.4% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$9,665,461Mike LawlerH2NY17162$10,001,206
    OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up79.3% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$3,072,898Max MillerH2OH16051$3,289,528
    OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up73.7% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$5,584,405Derek MerrinH4OH09169$2,083,931
    PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑81.0% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$4,991,635Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$5,167,023
    PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up72.6% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$7,095,684Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$6,197,786
    TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Toss Up ↑81.1% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$6,213,369Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$6,551,097
    PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑76.3% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$8,689,755Scott PerryH2PA04135$6,457,001
    TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑87.4% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$4,956,873Eric FloresH6TX34080$3,830,063
    VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑52.8% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$4,192,970Robert WittmanH8VA01147$5,216,106
    VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑81.2% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$7,364,705Jen KiggansH2VA02064$7,240,304
    WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Lean D ↑87.0% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$8,838,141John BraunH6WA03275$3,203,193
    WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑71.8% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$11,959,646Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$8,794,975

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