The Republican stronghold days are over; Arizona has emerged as a true swing state. While Arizona is fairly polarized politically, voter concerns about key economic issues such as housing, inflation, and immigration cross party lines. Years of organizing have resulted in Democrats being within a few seats of flipping the party balance in the state legislature. Democratic Senators Gallego and Kelly are widely respected.



Of the state’s six Congressional seats currently held by Republicans, two seats — Arizona 01 and Arizona 06 – have been identified as vulnerable, and one – Arizona 02 – is worth watching. One of the vulnerable seats is open, and the other is represented by a Republican who has distinct weaknesses.

• The chances of the Democrats winning AZ-01 U.S. House race improved when the Cook Report moved the race from Toss Up to Lean D. The change is a bright spot for Democrat Amish Shah, an emergency room physician who defeated a candidate heavily backed by the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in the primary.
• Republican and former NFL kicker Jay Feely had hoped being an outsider would count, but it seems unlikely now.
• Democrat Joanna Mendoza (AZ-06), a retired Marine Corps veteran, has taken her Republican opponent Juan Ciscomani to task for his support of staffing cuts at the Department of Veterans Affairs.
• Mendoza is the daughter of farm workers and the oldest of five, and grew up in rural Pinal County, Arizona.
• Trump-endorsed Ciscomani dutifully voted to prevent immigration reform, to enact Trump’s tax cuts, and to slash IRS resources that had been used to pursue tax fraud.
• Ciscomani also founded the Arizona chapter of the Patriot Academy; a group focused on rewriting the Constitution and on strong anti-abortion laws with no exceptions for rape or incest.
• The state's large population of unenrolled voters creates unique dynamics that make every statewide race genuinely competitive.
• AZ-02 is a race to watch. Democrat Jonathan Nez, former president of the Navajo Nation, is running to flip Arizona's competitive 2nd congressional district. His opponent, incumbent Eli Crane actively supports ending Arizona's mail-in voting and supports anti-abortion and anti-vaccination mandates.