The Republican stronghold days are over; Arizona has emerged as a true swing state. While Arizona is fairly polarized politically, voter concerns about key economic issues such as housing, inflation, and immigration cross party lines. Years of organizing have resulted in Democrats being within a few seats of flipping the party balance in the state legislature. Democratic Senators Gallego and Kelly are widely respected.



Of the state’s six Congressional seats currently held by Republicans, two seats — Arizona 01 and Arizona 06 – have been identified as vulnerable, and one – Arizona 02 – is worth watching. One of the vulnerable seats is open, and the other is represented by a Republican who has distinct weaknesses.

• AZ-01 is open due to Schweikert’s decision to run for state office. The race is considered a toss-up.
• AZ-06 incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani, won by less than 2% in 2024.
• Five Democrats are running in the AZ-06 July 21 primary. Only one, JoAnna Mendoza, has much traction and has raised over $1 million.
• Ciscomani dutifully voted to prevent Immigration reform, to enact Trump’s tax cuts, and to slash IRS resources to pursue tax fraud.
• Ciscomani also founded the Arizona chapter of the Patriot Academy, a group focused on rewriting the Constitution and on strong anti-abortion laws with no exceptions for rape of incest.
• Ciscomani has refused to debate any opponent.
• The state’s large population of unenrolled voters creates unique dynamics that make every statewide race genuinely competitive.
• AZ-02 Congressman Eli Crane aggressively supports the reinstatement of Election Day voting, ending Arizona’s mail-in balloting, and enacting stronger voter ID laws. In the ‘anti’ category, Crane is a vocal supporter of anti-abortion and anti-vaccination mandates.
• Two Democratic candidates have filed for the AZ-02 race, but only one, Jonathan Nez,has raised more than $1 million in campaign funds.

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES