The major story in Texas is the open U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. While Texas remains a Republican-leaning state, the race is drawing national attention as Democrats look for opportunities in 2026. Talarico, a former public-school teacher and state representative, is campaigning on affordability, public education, voting rights, and a pragmatic approach to border security. Talarico’s campaign has gained positive national attention while his opponent’s scandals have garnered attention in an opposite direction.

Democrats also face competitive races in South Texas, where Henry Cuellar in TX-28 and Vicente Gonzalez Jr. in TX-34 are running in districts that supported Donald Trump while reelecting Democratic members of Congress in 2024. These split-ticket results highlight the strength of both incumbents and the continued competitiveness of South Texas voters.

● A June University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found Ken Paxton leading James Talarico 43%-42%, within the poll’s margin of error, while Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as Lean Republican.
● Republican Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina is challenging Cuellar in TX-28, making the race a major test of Democratic strength in a Trump-supporting, majority-Latino district, and is rated as Lean Democratic by both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
● Republican Eric Flores is challenging Gonzalez in TX-34, where economic concerns, border policy, and local issues are expected to shape the contest. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently rate the race as a Toss-Up.
● Affordability has become a top concern for many Texas voters, with inflation, housing, groceries, and energy costs increasingly competing with immigration as leading issues.