Key Races ▸ By State ▸ Virginia

Virginia

House · VA-01FLIP House · VA-02FLIP

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The central story is whether Virginia Democrats can flip competitive Republican-held seats in Virginia’s 1st and 2nd Congressional district. Districts once considered more stable are now in play due to shifting suburban voting patterns which have seen steady Democratic gains over the past decade. This is creating new pickup opportunities in districts like VA-01 and VA-02.



In VA-01, Republican incumbent Robert Wittman is vulnerable in part because of his support of cuts to Medicaid, which put in jeopardy rural hospitals and healthcare in his district. Seven Democrats are running in the primary, but lawyer Shannon Taylor seems to be gaining the most attention. In VA-02, Jennifer Kiggans is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the House partly because of her unwavering support of Trump’s war with Iran while the cost of living continues to rise. In VA-02, Elaine Luria, a former U.S. Congresswoman, is running the strongest campaign.



Virginia voters are highly engaged and increasingly motivated by issues beyond the economy. Concern about the state of democracy and maintaining civic norms has emerged as the top priority, outpacing inflation and immigration. Energy demand tied to rapid data center growth, infrastructure strain, and broader cost-of-living pressures are also shaping voter sentiment.

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES


State District Incumbent Partisan Lean Cook Rating Votehub Rating Primary Date Dem Candidate $ Raised (Dem) Rep Candidate $ Raised (Rep)
Pennsylvania PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) D+1 Lean R ↑ 63.2% (R) 19-May-26 Bob Harvie H6PA01181 $2,007,499 Brian Fitzpatrick H6PA08277 $6,734,931
Maine ME-02 OPEN (Jared Golden (D)) R+4 Lean R ↑ 64.6% (R) 9-Jun-26 H6ME02171 $1,205,432 Paul LePage H6ME02148 $2,563,901
Kentucky KY-06 OPEN (Barr) (R) R+7 Lean R 69.6% (R) 19-May-26 Zach Dembo H6KY06184 $1,463,855 Ralph Alvarado H6KY06192 $1,521,813
Colorado CO-05 Jeff Crank (R) Republican R+5 Lean R 64.2% (R) 30-Jun-26 Jessica Killin H6CO05324 $3,143,744 Jeff Crank H6CO05142 $2,177,288
Texas TX-35 OPEN (Casar) (D) Democratic R+4 Lean R 59.5% (D) 3-Mar-26 Johnny Garcia H6TX35095 $931,699 Carlos de la Cruz H6TX35087 $1,048,751
Wisconsin WI-01 Bryan Steil (R) R+2 Lean R ↑ 67.8% (R) 11-Aug-26 Mitchell Berman H6WI01283 $712,984 Bryan Steil H8WI01156 $5,467,777
Montana MT-01 OPEN (Zinke (R)) R+5 Lean R ↑ 62.4% (R) 2-Jun-26 Sam Forstag H6MT01137 $1,382,873 Aaron Flint H6MT01152 $1,303,394
Florida FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar (R) R+6 Lean R ↑ 63.5% (R) 18-Aug-26 Eliott Rodriguez H6FL27098 $661,173 Maria Elvira Salazar H8FL27185 $1,999,399
Florida FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna (R) R+6 Lean R ↑ 78.6% (R) 18-Aug-26 Leela Gray H6FL13312 $1,223,069 Anna Paulina Luna H0FL13158 $3,233,312
Arizona AZ-01 OPEN (David Schweikert (R)) Republican R+1 Lean D ↑ 79.8% (D) 21-Jul-26 Amish Shah H4AZ01194 $1,830,193 Thomas Feely H6AZ05190 $2,528,497 Yes
Arizona AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 81.4% (D) 21-Jul-26 JoAnna Mendoza H6AZ06099 $7,354,808 Juan Ciscomani H2AZ02360 $6,172,867 Yes
California CA-22 David Valadao (R) Republican D+1 Toss Up 79.8% (D) 2-Jun-26 Randy Villegas H6CA22190 $2,645,566 David Valadao H2CA20094 $4,927,602 Yes
California CA-48 OPEN (Darrell Issa (R)) Republican D+2 Lean D 86.5% (D) 26-Jun-26 Marni von Wilpert H6CA48310 $2,174,872 Jim Desmond H6CA49128 $2,258,836
Colorado CO-08 Gabe Evans (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 85.0% (D) 30-Jun-26 Manny Rutinel H6CO08013 $4,336,988 Gabe Evans H4CO08034 $5,393,673 Yes
Florida FL-14 Kathy Castor (D) Democratic R+4 Toss Up ↑ 66.9% (D) 18-Aug-26 Kathy Castor H6FL11126 $2,337,999 Mike Beltran H6FL14237 $2,125,730
Florida FL-22 Lois Frankel (D) Democratic R+4 Toss Up ↑ 63.3% (R) 18-Aug-26 Pia Dandiya H6FL21059 $2,284,052 Casey Askar H6FL22248 $2,587,502
Florida FL-25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) Democratic R+3 Toss Up 75.7% (D) 18-Aug-26 Jared Moskowitz H4FL20023 $3,300,107 Scott Singer H6FL23188 $2,265,702
Iowa IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) Republican R+4 Lean D ↑ 76.5% (D) 2-Jun-26 Christina Bohannan H2IA02111 $7,051,745 Mariannette Miller-Meeks H8IA02043 $7,208,271
Iowa IA-02 OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R)) Republican R+4 Toss Up ↑ 50.1% (R) 2-Jun-26 Lindsay James H6IA02211 $1,628,201 Joe Mitchell H6IA02237 $1,938,593
Iowa IA-03 Zach Nunn (R) Republican R+2 Lean D ↑ 74.4% (D) 26-Jun-26 Sarah Trone Garriott H6IA03268 $5,293,773 Zach Nunn H2IA03119 $4,869,249
Michigan MI-04 Bill Huizenga (R) Republican R+3 Toss Up ↑ 63.5% (R) 4-Aug-26 Sean McCann H6MI04204 $2,620,011 Bill Huizenga H0MI02094 $4,093,991
Michigan MI-07 Tom Barrett (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 56.4% (D) 4-Aug-26 William Lawrence H6MI07298 $1,119,198 Tom Barrett H2MI07123 $6,306,828
Michigan MI-10 OPEN (John James - (R)) Republican R+3 Toss Up ↑ 63.7% (D) 4-Aug-26 Christina Hines H6MI10276 $1,211,489 Michael Bouchard H6MI10359 $1,623,745
North Carolina NC-01 Don Davis (D) Democratic R+5 Toss Up ↑ 64.1% (D) 3-Mar-26 Don Davis H2NC02287 $4,287,386 Laurie Buckhout H4NC01137 $3,793,077
North Carolina NC-11 Chuck Edwards (R) Republican R+5 Toss Up ↑ 67.4% (D) 26-Mar-26 Jamie Ager H6NC11248 $3,052,354 Chuck Edwards H2NC14050 $939,985
New Jersey NJ-07 Thomas Kean (R) Republican EVEN Lean D ↑ 82.7% (D) 2-Jun-26 Rebecca Bennett H6NJ07201 $4,272,034 Thomas Kean H0NJ07261 $4,892,807
New York NY-17 Mike Lawler (R) Republican D+1 Toss Up 66.5% (D) 23-Jun-26 H6NY17171 $4,317,457 Mike Lawler H2NY17162 $8,172,046
Ohio OH-01 Greg Landsman (D) Democratic R+1 Lean D 90.4% (D) 26-May-26 Greg Landsman H2OH01194 $4,633,250 Eric Conroy H6OH01138 $1,513,614
Ohio OH-07 Max Miller (R) Republican R+5 Toss Up 75.2% (D) 5-May-26 Brian Poindexter H6OH07168 $603,156 Max Miller H2OH16051 $2,142,562
Ohio OH-09 Marcy Kaptur (D) Democratic R+5 Toss Up 70.4% (D) 5-May-26 Marcy Kaptur H2OH09031 $4,303,416 Derek Merrin H4OH09169 $1,508,953
Pennsylvania PA-07 Ryan MacKenzie (R) Republican R+1 Lean D ↑ 76.4% (D) 19-May-26 Bob Brooks H6PA07188 $2,392,215 Ryan MacKenzie H8PA15195 $4,357,405
Pennsylvania PA-08 Rob Bresnahan (R) Republican R+4 Toss Up 67.0% (D) 19-May-26 Paige Cognetti H6PA08293 $4,609,589 Rob Bresnahan H4PA08124 $5,234,586
Texas TX-15 Monica De La Cruz (R) Republican R+7 Toss Up ↑ 73.6% (D) 3-Mar-26 Bobby Pulido H6TX15246 $2,960,462 Monica De La Cruz H0TX15124 $5,273,960
Pennsylvania PA-10 Scott Perry (R) Republican R+3 Lean D ↑ 75.0% (D) 19-May-26 Janelle Stelson H4PA10104 $8,689,755 Scott Perry H2PA04135 $5,194,925
Texas TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez (D) Democratic R+3 Toss Up 86.1% (D) 3-Mar-26 Vicente Gonzalez H6TX15162 $3,773,915 Eric Flores H6TX34080 $2,874,990
Virginia VA-01 Robert Wittman (R) Republican R+3 Toss Up ↑ 54.6% (R) 4-Aug-26 Shannon Taylor H6VA01299 $2,140,980 Robert Wittman H8VA01147 $4,053,142
Virginia VA-02 Jen Kiggans (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 77.7% (D) 4-Aug-26 Elaine Luria H6VA02198 $4,659,795 Jen Kiggans H2VA02064 $5,954,338
Washington WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) Democratic R+2 Lean D ↑ 85.3% (D) 4-Aug-26 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez H2WA03217 $6,292,683 John Braun H6WA03275 $2,214,441
Wisconsin WI-03 Derrick Van Orden (R) Republican R+3 Toss Up 67.7% (D) 11-Aug-26 Rebecca Cooke H4WI03169 $8,601,146 Derrick Van Orden H0WI03175 $7,526,052
  • Wittman (VA-01) has been criticized about his support for controversial national legislation, including votes on Medicaid cuts, which put rural hospitals and healthcare access at risk in his district.
  • Republican Kiggans (VA-02) drew heat after she agreed on air with a Richmond radio host saying Hakeem Jeffries should get his “cotton-picking hands” off Virginia politics.
  • VA-01 is rated Lean Republican, but Democratic gains in Richmond-area suburbs are narrowing the gap.
  • VA-02 has flipped between parties in recent election cycles.
  • Virginia Democrats suffered a major defeat when the state Supreme Court struck down a voter-approved constitutional amendment that would have likely resulted in a net gain of four seats for Democrats.
  • Protecting democracy and civic norms is the top issue for 41% of Virginia voters, according to a recent poll.
  • Energy demand from data center growth and concerns about infrastructure capacity are emerging as key statewide issues.
State Map

Key Races in Virginia

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Senate

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑56.0% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$6,276,527Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$10,217,845
KansasKansasRoger Marshall (R)R+8Toss Up ↑68.1% (R)4-Aug-26Adam HamiltonS6KS00312$4,169,078Roger MarshallS0KS00315$6,205,622
MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup71.9% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$14,514,336Mike RogersS4MI00595$10,898,177
New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D ↑88.6% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$15,384,657John E. SununuS6NH00208$4,180,252
AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up67.5% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$18,545,132Dan SullivanS4AK00214$11,735,898
MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup61.8% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$0Susan CollinsS6ME00159$18,930,078
OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up67.3% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$38,566,234Jon HustedS6OH00304$14,360,028
TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑63.5% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$68,560,930Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$9,248,692

House

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian Fitzpatrick (R)D+1Lean R ↑63.2% (R)19-May-26Bob HarvieH6PA01181$2,007,499Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277$6,734,931
MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden (D))R+4Lean R ↑64.6% (R)9-Jun-26H6ME02171$1,205,432Paul LePageH6ME02148$2,563,901
KentuckyKY-06OPEN (Barr) (R)R+7Lean R69.6% (R)19-May-26Zach DemboH6KY06184$1,463,855Ralph AlvaradoH6KY06192$1,521,813
ColoradoCO-05Jeff Crank (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R64.2% (R)30-Jun-26Jessica KillinH6CO05324$3,143,744Jeff CrankH6CO05142$2,177,288
TexasTX-35OPEN (Casar) (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R59.5% (D)3-Mar-26Johnny GarciaH6TX35095$931,699Carlos de la CruzH6TX35087$1,048,751
WisconsinWI-01Bryan Steil (R)R+2Lean R ↑67.8% (R)11-Aug-26Mitchell BermanH6WI01283$712,984Bryan SteilH8WI01156$5,467,777
MontanaMT-01OPEN (Zinke (R))R+5Lean R ↑62.4% (R)2-Jun-26Sam ForstagH6MT01137$1,382,873Aaron FlintH6MT01152$1,303,394
FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R)R+6Lean R ↑63.5% (R)18-Aug-26Eliott RodriguezH6FL27098$661,173Maria Elvira SalazarH8FL27185$1,999,399
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6Lean R ↑78.6% (R)18-Aug-26Leela GrayH6FL13312$1,223,069Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$3,233,312
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑79.8% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$1,830,193Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$2,528,497Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up81.4% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$7,354,808Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$6,172,867Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up79.8% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$2,645,566David ValadaoH2CA20094$4,927,602Yes
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D86.5% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$2,174,872Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,258,836
ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up85.0% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$4,336,988Gabe EvansH4CO08034$5,393,673Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑66.9% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$2,337,999Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,125,730
FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑63.3% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$2,284,052Casey AskarH6FL22248$2,587,502
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up75.7% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,300,107Scott SingerH6FL23188$2,265,702
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Lean D ↑76.5% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$7,051,745Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$7,208,271
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Toss Up ↑50.1% (R)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$1,628,201Joe MitchellH6IA02237$1,938,593
IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Lean D ↑74.4% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$5,293,773Zach NunnH2IA03119$4,869,249
MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑63.5% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$2,620,011Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$4,093,991
MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up56.4% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$1,119,198Tom BarrettH2MI07123$6,306,828
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑63.7% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$1,211,489Michael BouchardH6MI10359$1,623,745
North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up ↑64.1% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$4,287,386Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$3,793,077
North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up ↑67.4% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$3,052,354Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$939,985
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑82.7% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$4,272,034Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$4,892,807
New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up66.5% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$4,317,457Mike LawlerH2NY17162$8,172,046
OhioOH-01Greg Landsman (D)DemocraticR+1Lean D90.4% (D)26-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$4,633,250Eric ConroyH6OH01138$1,513,614
OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up75.2% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$603,156Max MillerH2OH16051$2,142,562
OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up70.4% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$4,303,416Derek MerrinH4OH09169$1,508,953
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑76.4% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$2,392,215Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$4,357,405
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up67.0% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$4,609,589Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$5,234,586
TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Toss Up ↑73.6% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$2,960,462Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$5,273,960
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑75.0% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$8,689,755Scott PerryH2PA04135$5,194,925
TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up86.1% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$3,773,915Eric FloresH6TX34080$2,874,990
VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑54.6% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$2,140,980Robert WittmanH8VA01147$4,053,142
VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up77.7% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$4,659,795Jen KiggansH2VA02064$5,954,338
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Lean D ↑85.3% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$6,292,683John BraunH6WA03275$2,214,441
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up67.7% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$8,601,146Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$7,526,052

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