Early Voting Begins: Fri, Sept 18
The central story is whether Virginia Democrats can flip competitive Republican-held seats in Virginia’s 1st and 2nd Congressional district. Districts once considered more stable are now in play due to shifting suburban voting patterns which have seen steady Democratic gains over the past decade. This is creating new pickup opportunities in districts like VA-01 and VA-02.
In VA-01, Republican incumbent Robert Wittman is vulnerable in part because of his support of cuts to Medicaid, which put in jeopardy rural hospitals and healthcare in his district. Seven Democrats are running in the primary, but lawyer Shannon Taylor seems to be gaining the most attention. In VA-02, Jennifer Kiggans is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the House partly because of her unwavering support of Trump’s war with Iran while the cost of living continues to rise. In VA-02, Elaine Luria, a former U.S. Congresswoman, is running the strongest campaign.
Virginia voters are highly engaged and increasingly motivated by issues beyond the economy. Concern about the state of democracy and maintaining civic norms has emerged as the top priority, outpacing inflation and immigration. Energy demand tied to rapid data center growth, infrastructure strain, and broader cost-of-living pressures are also shaping voter sentiment.
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Votehub Rating | Democratic Candidate | $ Raised (Dem) | Republican Candidate | $ Raised (Rep) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Iowa | OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R)) | R+6 | Toss Up ↑ | 57.1% (R) | Lean R | 2-Jun-26 | Josh Turek | S6IA00298 | $20,152,882 | Ashley Hinson | S6IA00314 | $13,472,386 |
| Kansas | Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | R+8 | Toss Up ↑ | 66.0% (R) | 4-Aug-26 | Adam Hamilton | S6KS00312 | $13,533,711 | Roger Marshall | S0KS00315 | $7,006,240 | |
| Minnesota | Minnesota | OPEN (Smith) (D) | D+3 | Lean D | 84.9% (D) | Peggy Flanagan | S6MN00440 | $10,301,879 | Michele Tafoya | S6MN00556 | $9,661,129 | ||
| South Carolina | South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | R+8 | Lean R | 82.6% (R) | Annie Andrews | S6SC04239 | $20,173,697 | Darline Graham | S6SC04437 | $1,827,626 | ||
| Michigan | Michigan | OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D)) | R+0 | Tossup | 71.7% (D) | Tossup | 4-Aug-26 | Abdul El-Sayed | S6MI00418 | $45,175,567 | Mike Rogers | S4MI00595 | $20,565,706 |
| New Hampshire | New Hampshire | OPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D)) | D+2 | Lean D ↑ | 88.3% (D) | Lean D | 8-Sep-26 | Chris Pappas | S6NH00141 | $21,500,073 | John E. Sununu | S6NH00208 | $5,334,886 |
| Alaska | Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | R+6 | Toss Up | 68.1% (D) | Lean R | 18-Aug-26 | Mary Peltola | S6AK00276 | $32,623,722 | Dan Sullivan | S4AK00214 | $13,760,055 |
| Maine | Maine | Susan Collins (R) | D+4 | Tossup | 63.5% (D) | Tossup | 9-Jun-26 | Troy Jackson | S6ME00464 | $20,431,280 | Susan Collins | S6ME00159 | $24,131,410 |
| Ohio | Ohio | Jon Husted (R) | R+5 | Toss Up | 65.7% (D) | Lean R | 5-May-26 | Sherrod Brown | S6OH00163 | $61,686,820 | Jon Husted | S6OH00304 | $19,208,763 |
| Texas | Texas | John Cornyn (R) | R+6 | Toss Up ↑ | 62.6% (D) | Lean R | 3-Mar-26 | James Talarico | S6TX00479 | $128,772,835 | Ken Paxton | S6TX00388 | $19,497,810 |
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