North Carolina politics is notoriously unpredictable. Voters in North Carolina have regularly split their tickets when choosing who to vote for in races at the top of the ballot.

In NC-01, Democratic incumbent Don Davis is battling for re-election in a Lean R race. Davis was first elected in 2022, but his district is considerably more red due to redistricting. He faces Laurie Buckhout, a retired U.S. Army colonel who has not held office before. NC-11 is a possible flip, due in part incumbent Chuck Edwards (R) who suspended his re-election campaign in August after the House Ethics Committee recommended that the full House censure him following allegations of inappropriate behavior around female staffers. Democrat Jamie Ager, farmer and business owner, is competing in a race that was upgraded from Lean R to Tossup. His opponent is Jennifer Balkcom, who is now in the state House of Representatives.

Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is the Democrats’ best chance to flip a Senate Seat in 2026, according to the Cook Report. In fact, Cooper’s chances have improved the closer we get to the election. Cooper’s rating went from Tossup to Lean D to Likely D. Having nearly 40 years in public office, Cooper has never lost an election.

• The leading Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, Michael Whatley was a member of George W. Bush’s team pursuing the Florida recount in 2000.
• NC-01 Congressman Don Davis served eight years as a commissioned officer after graduating from the U.S. Air Force Academy. Afterwards, he taught national security affairs, military history, and leadership courses in Aerospace Studies at East Carolina University.
• The Republican running against Davis, Sandy Roberson, is a nursing home administrator who has served two terms as mayor Rocky Mount, a city of about 54,000.
• The number of unaffiliated voters in the state has burgeoned, surpassing Democratic and Republican registered voters.
• Democratic Party representatives are hosting town hall meetings in the state, including in rural areas where their Republican representatives fail to hold in-person meetings. But the Republican state legislature’s gerrymandering has put 13 out of 14 congressional districts considerably more difficult for Democrats.
• Looking even further ahead, local organizations like Volunteer Blue partner All in for North Carolina are also starting to plan to challenge NC U.S. Senator Ted Budd, who will be up for reelection in 2028.

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

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COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES

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