Key Races ▸ By State ▸ North Carolina

North Carolina

Senate · Roy CooperFLIP House · NC-01 · Don DavisHOLD House · NC-11 · Jamie AgerFLIP

Early Voting Begins: Thu, Oct 15

Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is the Democrats’ best chance to flip a Senate Seat in 2026, according to the Cook Report. Having nearly 40 years in public office, Cooper has never lost an election. However, the race is rated a Tossup. His main Republican opponent is political insider Michael Whatley, who served one year as chair of the Republican National Committee.

North Carolina politics is notoriously unpredictable. The 2026 Senate election is likely to be among the most competitive and the most expensive races.

In NC-01, Democratic incumbent Don Davis is battling for re-election in a Lean R race. Davis, who was first elected in 2022, has two Republican opponents, but one that has deep pockets, having contributed $2 million of his own money to his own campaign.

Voters in North Carolina have regularly split their tickets when choosing who to vote for in races at the top of the ballot. The number of unaffiliated voters in the state has burgeoned, surpassing Democratic and Republican registered voters.
The leading Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, Michael Whatley was a member of George W. Bush’s team pursuing the Florida recount in 2000.
NC-01 Congressman Don Davis served eight years as a commissioned officer after graduating from the U.S. Air Force Academy. Afterwards, he taught national security affairs, military history, and leadership courses in Aerospace Studies at East Carolina University.
The Republican running against Davis, Sandy Roberson, is a nursing home administrator who has served two terms as mayor Rocky Mount, a city of about 54,000.
Democratic Party representatives are hosting town hall meetings in the state, including in rural areas where their Republican representatives fail to hold in-person meetings. But the Republican state legislature’s gerrymandering has put 13 out of 14 congressional districts out of reach of Democrats.
Looking even further ahead, local organizations like Volunteer Blue partner All in for North Carolina are also starting to plan to challenge NC U.S. Senator Ted Budd, who will be up for reelection in 2028.

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

State	District	Incumbent	Party in Power	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Votehub Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	FECID_Dem	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	FECID_Rep	$ Raised (Rep)	Red District Project
Colorado	CO-05	Jeff Crank (R)	Republican	R+5	Lean R	62.6% (R)	30-Jun-26	Jessica Killin	H6CO05324	$3,143,744	Jeff Crank	H6CO05142	$2,177,288
Texas	TX-35	OPEN (Casar) (D)	Democratic	R+4	Lean R	60.6% (D)	3-Mar-26	Johnny Garcia	H6TX35095	$931,699	Carlos de la Cruz	H6TX35087	$1,048,751
Wisconsin	WI-01	Bryan Steil (R)		R+2	Lean R ↑	70.9% (R)	11-Aug-26	Mitchell Berman	H6WI01283	$712,984	Bryan Steil	H8WI01156	$5,467,777
Montana	MT-01	OPEN (Zinke (R))		R+5	Lean R ↑	64.7% (R)	2-Jun-26	Sam Forstag	H6MT01137	$1,382,873	Aaron Flint	H6MT01152	$1,303,394
Florida	FL-27	Maria Elvira Salazar (R)		R+6	Lean R ↑	63.7% (R)	18-Aug-26	Eliott Rodriguez	H6FL27098	$661,173	Maria Elvira Salazar	H8FL27185	$1,999,399
Florida	FL-13	Anna Paulina Luna (R)		R+6	Lean R ↑	79.2% (R)	18-Aug-26	Leela Gray	H6FL13312	$1,223,069	Anna Paulina Luna	H0FL13158	$3,233,312
Arizona	AZ-01	OPEN (David Schweikert (R))	Republican	R+1	Lean D ↑	79.7% (D)	21-Jul-26	Amish Shah	H4AZ01194	$1,830,193	Thomas Feely	H6AZ05190	$2,528,497	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	80.9% (D)	21-Jul-26	JoAnna Mendoza	H6AZ06099	$7,354,808	Juan Ciscomani	H2AZ02360	$6,172,867	Yes
California	CA-22	David Valadao (R)	Republican	D+1	Toss Up	80.9% (D)	2-Jun-26	Randy Villegas	H6CA22190	$2,645,560	David Valadao	H2CA20094	$4,927,602	Yes
California	CA-48	OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))	Republican	D+2	Lean D	87.8% (D)	26-Jun-26	Marni von Wilpert	H6CA48310	$2,174,872	Jim Desmond	H6CA49128	$2,258,836
Colorado	CO-08	Gabe Evans (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	85.4% (D)	30-Jun-26	Manny Rutinel	H6CO08013	$4,336,988	Gabe Evans	H4CO08034	$5,393,673	Yes
Florida	FL-14	Kathy Castor (D)	Democratic	R+4	Toss Up ↑	67.0% (D)	18-Aug-26	Kathy Castor	H6FL11126	$2,337,999	Mike Beltran	H6FL14237	$2,116,747
Florida	FL-22	Lois Frankel (D)	Democratic	R+4	Toss Up ↑	63.9% (R)	18-Aug-26	Pia Dandiya	H6FL21059	$2,284,052	Casey Askar	H6FL22248	$2,578,519
Florida	FL-25	Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)	Democratic	R+3	Toss Up	75.4% (D)	18-Aug-26	Jared Moskowitz	H4FL20023	$3,300,107	Scott Singer	H6FL23188	$2,256,719
Iowa	IA-01	Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)	Republican	R+4	Toss Up	77.5% (D)	2-Jun-26	Christina Bohannan	H2IA02111	$7,051,745	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	H8IA02043	$7,208,271
Iowa	IA-02	OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))	Republican	R+4	Lean R ↑	51.1% (R)	2-Jun-26	Lindsay James	H6IA02211	$1,628,201	Joe Mitchell	H6IA02237	$1,938,593
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn (R)	Republican	R+2	Toss Up	74.6% (D)	26-Jun-26	Sarah Trone Garriott	H6IA03268	$5,293,773	Zach Nunn	H2IA03119	$4,869,249
Michigan	MI-04	Bill Huizenga (R)	Republican	R+3	Lean R ↑	64.0% (R)	4-Aug-26	Sean McCann	H6MI04204	$2,620,011	Bill Huizenga	H0MI02094	$4,093,991
Michigan	MI-07	Tom Barrett (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	55.9% (D)	4-Aug-26	William Lawrence	H6MI07298	$1,119,198	Tom Barrett	H2MI07123	$6,306,828
Michigan	MI-10	OPEN (John James - (R))	Republican	R+3	Toss Up ↑	63.5% (D)	4-Aug-26	Christina Hines	H6MI10276	$1,211,489	Michael Bouchard	H6MI10359	$1,623,745
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis (D)	Democratic	R+5	Lean R	57.3% (D)	3-Mar-26	Don Davis	H2NC02287	$4,287,386	Laurie Buckhout	H4NC01137	$3,793,077
North Carolina	NC-11	Chuck Edwards (R)	Republican	R+5	Toss Up ↑	63.0% (D)	26-Mar-26	Jamie Ager	H6NC11248	$3,052,354	Chuck Edwards	H2NC14050	$939,985
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean (R)	Republican	EVEN	Lean D ↑	81.8% (D)	2-Jun-26	Rebecca Bennett	H6NJ07201	$4,272,034	Thomas Kean	H0NJ07261	$4,892,807
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler (R)	Republican	D+1	Toss Up	70.5% (D)	23-Jun-26	Cait Conley	H6NY17171	$4,317,457	Mike Lawler	H2NY17162	$8,172,046
Ohio	OH-01	Greg Landsman (D)	Democratic	R+1	Lean D	90.0% (D)	26-May-26	Greg Landsman	H2OH01194	$4,633,250	Eric Conroy	H6OH01138	$1,513,614
Ohio	OH-07	Max Miller (R)	Republican	R+5	Toss Up	74.6% (D)	5-May-26	Brian Poindexter	H6OH07168	$603,156	Max Miller	H2OH16051	$2,142,562
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur (D)	Democratic	R+5	Toss Up	73.0% (D)	5-May-26	Marcy Kaptur	H2OH09031	$4,303,416	Derek Merrin	H4OH09169	$1,508,953
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Ryan MacKenzie (R)	Republican	R+1	Toss Up	78.1% (D)	19-May-26	Bob Brooks	H6PA07188	$2,392,215	Ryan MacKenzie	H8PA15195	$4,357,405
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Rob Bresnahan (R)	Republican	R+4	Toss Up	65.0% (D)	19-May-26	Paige Cognetti	H6PA08293	$4,609,589	Rob Bresnahan	H4PA08124	$5,234,586
Texas	TX-15	Monica De La Cruz (R)	Republican	R+7	Toss Up ↑	69.7% (D)	3-Mar-26	Bobby Pulido	H6TX15246	$2,960,462	Monica De La Cruz	H0TX15124	$5,273,960
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry (R)	Republican	R+3	Toss Up	75.0% (D)	19-May-26	Janelle Stelson	H4PA10104	$6,364,069	Scott Perry	H2PA04135	$5,194,925
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez (D)	Democratic	R+3	Toss Up	85.8% (D)	3-Mar-26	Vicente Gonzalez	H6TX15162	$3,773,915	Eric Flores	H6TX34080	$2,874,990
Virginia	VA-01	Robert Wittman (R)	Republican	R+3	Lean R	61.8% (R)	4-Aug-26	Shannon Taylor	H6VA01299	$2,140,980	Robert Wittman	H8VA01147	$4,053,142
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	75.0% (D)	4-Aug-26	Elaine Luria	H6VA02198	$4,659,795	Jen Kiggans	H2VA02064	$5,954,338
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)	Democratic	R+2	Toss Up	86.2% (D)	4-Aug-26	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	H2WA03217	$6,292,683	John Braun	H6WA03275	$2,214,441
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden (R)	Republican	R+3	Toss Up	67.2% (D)	11-Aug-26	Rebecca Cooke	H4WI03169	$8,601,146	Derrick Van Orden	H0WI03175	$7,526,052

COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES

State	State For Sorting Hidden	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Votehub Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	FECID_Dem	$ Raised (Dem)	Republican Candidate	FECID_Rep	$ Raised (Rep)
Iowa	Iowa	OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))	R+6	Toss Up ↑	58.6% (R)	Lean R	2-Jun-26	Josh Turek	S6IA00298	$6,276,527	Ashley Hinson	S6IA00314	$10,217,845
Kansas	Kansas	Roger Marshall (R)	R+8	Lean R	76.4% (R)		4-Aug-26	Adam Hamilton	S6KS00312	$4,169,078	Roger Marshall	S0KS00315	$6,205,622
Michigan	Michigan	OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))	R+0	Tossup	73.4% (D)	Tossup	4-Aug-26	Abdul El-Sayed	S6MI00418	$14,514,336	Mike Rogers	S4MI00595	$10,898,177
New Hampshire	New Hampshire	OPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))	D+2	Toss Up ↓	87.9% (D)	Lean D	8-Sep-26	Chris Pappas	S6NH00141	$15,384,657	John E. Sununu	S6NH00208	$4,180,252
Alaska	Alaska	Dan Sullivan (R)	R+6	Toss Up	63.9% (D)	Lean R	18-Aug-26	Mary Peltola	S6AK00276	$18,545,132	Dan Sullivan	S4AK00214	$11,735,898
Maine	Maine	Susan Collins (R)	D+4	Tossup	63.1% (D)	Tossup	9-Jun-26	Troy Jackson	S6ME00464	$0	Susan Collins	S6ME00159	$18,930,078
Ohio	Ohio	Jon Husted (R)	R+5	Toss Up	61.9% (D)	Lean R	5-May-26	Sherrod Brown	S6OH00163	$38,566,234	Jon Husted	S6OH00304	$14,360,028
Texas	Texas	John Cornyn (R)	R+6	Toss Up ↑	61.2% (D)	Lean R	3-Mar-26	James Talarico	S6TX00479	$68,560,930	Ken Paxton	S6TX00388	$9,248,699

State Map

Key Races in North Carolina

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Senate

State	State For Sorting Hidden	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Votehub Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	FECID_Dem	$ Raised (Dem)	Republican Candidate	FECID_Rep	$ Raised (Rep)
Iowa	Iowa	OPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))	R+6	Toss Up ↑	58.6% (R)	Lean R	2-Jun-26	Josh Turek	S6IA00298	$6,276,527	Ashley Hinson	S6IA00314	$10,217,845
Kansas	Kansas	Roger Marshall (R)	R+8	Lean R	76.4% (R)		4-Aug-26	Adam Hamilton	S6KS00312	$4,169,078	Roger Marshall	S0KS00315	$6,205,622
Michigan	Michigan	OPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))	R+0	Tossup	73.4% (D)	Tossup	4-Aug-26	Abdul El-Sayed	S6MI00418	$14,514,336	Mike Rogers	S4MI00595	$10,898,177
New Hampshire	New Hampshire	OPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))	D+2	Toss Up ↓	87.9% (D)	Lean D	8-Sep-26	Chris Pappas	S6NH00141	$15,384,657	John E. Sununu	S6NH00208	$4,180,252
Alaska	Alaska	Dan Sullivan (R)	R+6	Toss Up	63.9% (D)	Lean R	18-Aug-26	Mary Peltola	S6AK00276	$18,545,132	Dan Sullivan	S4AK00214	$11,735,898
Maine	Maine	Susan Collins (R)	D+4	Tossup	63.1% (D)	Tossup	9-Jun-26	Troy Jackson	S6ME00464	$0	Susan Collins	S6ME00159	$18,930,078
Ohio	Ohio	Jon Husted (R)	R+5	Toss Up	61.9% (D)	Lean R	5-May-26	Sherrod Brown	S6OH00163	$38,566,234	Jon Husted	S6OH00304	$14,360,028
Texas	Texas	John Cornyn (R)	R+6	Toss Up ↑	61.2% (D)	Lean R	3-Mar-26	James Talarico	S6TX00479	$68,560,930	Ken Paxton	S6TX00388	$9,248,699

House

State	District	Incumbent	Party in Power	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Votehub Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	FECID_Dem	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	FECID_Rep	$ Raised (Rep)	Red District Project
Colorado	CO-05	Jeff Crank (R)	Republican	R+5	Lean R	62.6% (R)	30-Jun-26	Jessica Killin	H6CO05324	$3,143,744	Jeff Crank	H6CO05142	$2,177,288
Texas	TX-35	OPEN (Casar) (D)	Democratic	R+4	Lean R	60.6% (D)	3-Mar-26	Johnny Garcia	H6TX35095	$931,699	Carlos de la Cruz	H6TX35087	$1,048,751
Wisconsin	WI-01	Bryan Steil (R)		R+2	Lean R ↑	70.9% (R)	11-Aug-26	Mitchell Berman	H6WI01283	$712,984	Bryan Steil	H8WI01156	$5,467,777
Montana	MT-01	OPEN (Zinke (R))		R+5	Lean R ↑	64.7% (R)	2-Jun-26	Sam Forstag	H6MT01137	$1,382,873	Aaron Flint	H6MT01152	$1,303,394
Florida	FL-27	Maria Elvira Salazar (R)		R+6	Lean R ↑	63.7% (R)	18-Aug-26	Eliott Rodriguez	H6FL27098	$661,173	Maria Elvira Salazar	H8FL27185	$1,999,399
Florida	FL-13	Anna Paulina Luna (R)		R+6	Lean R ↑	79.2% (R)	18-Aug-26	Leela Gray	H6FL13312	$1,223,069	Anna Paulina Luna	H0FL13158	$3,233,312
Arizona	AZ-01	OPEN (David Schweikert (R))	Republican	R+1	Lean D ↑	79.7% (D)	21-Jul-26	Amish Shah	H4AZ01194	$1,830,193	Thomas Feely	H6AZ05190	$2,528,497	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	80.9% (D)	21-Jul-26	JoAnna Mendoza	H6AZ06099	$7,354,808	Juan Ciscomani	H2AZ02360	$6,172,867	Yes
California	CA-22	David Valadao (R)	Republican	D+1	Toss Up	80.9% (D)	2-Jun-26	Randy Villegas	H6CA22190	$2,645,560	David Valadao	H2CA20094	$4,927,602	Yes
California	CA-48	OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))	Republican	D+2	Lean D	87.8% (D)	26-Jun-26	Marni von Wilpert	H6CA48310	$2,174,872	Jim Desmond	H6CA49128	$2,258,836
Colorado	CO-08	Gabe Evans (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	85.4% (D)	30-Jun-26	Manny Rutinel	H6CO08013	$4,336,988	Gabe Evans	H4CO08034	$5,393,673	Yes
Florida	FL-14	Kathy Castor (D)	Democratic	R+4	Toss Up ↑	67.0% (D)	18-Aug-26	Kathy Castor	H6FL11126	$2,337,999	Mike Beltran	H6FL14237	$2,116,747
Florida	FL-22	Lois Frankel (D)	Democratic	R+4	Toss Up ↑	63.9% (R)	18-Aug-26	Pia Dandiya	H6FL21059	$2,284,052	Casey Askar	H6FL22248	$2,578,519
Florida	FL-25	Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)	Democratic	R+3	Toss Up	75.4% (D)	18-Aug-26	Jared Moskowitz	H4FL20023	$3,300,107	Scott Singer	H6FL23188	$2,256,719
Iowa	IA-01	Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)	Republican	R+4	Toss Up	77.5% (D)	2-Jun-26	Christina Bohannan	H2IA02111	$7,051,745	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	H8IA02043	$7,208,271
Iowa	IA-02	OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))	Republican	R+4	Lean R ↑	51.1% (R)	2-Jun-26	Lindsay James	H6IA02211	$1,628,201	Joe Mitchell	H6IA02237	$1,938,593
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn (R)	Republican	R+2	Toss Up	74.6% (D)	26-Jun-26	Sarah Trone Garriott	H6IA03268	$5,293,773	Zach Nunn	H2IA03119	$4,869,249
Michigan	MI-04	Bill Huizenga (R)	Republican	R+3	Lean R ↑	64.0% (R)	4-Aug-26	Sean McCann	H6MI04204	$2,620,011	Bill Huizenga	H0MI02094	$4,093,991
Michigan	MI-07	Tom Barrett (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	55.9% (D)	4-Aug-26	William Lawrence	H6MI07298	$1,119,198	Tom Barrett	H2MI07123	$6,306,828
Michigan	MI-10	OPEN (John James - (R))	Republican	R+3	Toss Up ↑	63.5% (D)	4-Aug-26	Christina Hines	H6MI10276	$1,211,489	Michael Bouchard	H6MI10359	$1,623,745
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis (D)	Democratic	R+5	Lean R	57.3% (D)	3-Mar-26	Don Davis	H2NC02287	$4,287,386	Laurie Buckhout	H4NC01137	$3,793,077
North Carolina	NC-11	Chuck Edwards (R)	Republican	R+5	Toss Up ↑	63.0% (D)	26-Mar-26	Jamie Ager	H6NC11248	$3,052,354	Chuck Edwards	H2NC14050	$939,985
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean (R)	Republican	EVEN	Lean D ↑	81.8% (D)	2-Jun-26	Rebecca Bennett	H6NJ07201	$4,272,034	Thomas Kean	H0NJ07261	$4,892,807
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler (R)	Republican	D+1	Toss Up	70.5% (D)	23-Jun-26	Cait Conley	H6NY17171	$4,317,457	Mike Lawler	H2NY17162	$8,172,046
Ohio	OH-01	Greg Landsman (D)	Democratic	R+1	Lean D	90.0% (D)	26-May-26	Greg Landsman	H2OH01194	$4,633,250	Eric Conroy	H6OH01138	$1,513,614
Ohio	OH-07	Max Miller (R)	Republican	R+5	Toss Up	74.6% (D)	5-May-26	Brian Poindexter	H6OH07168	$603,156	Max Miller	H2OH16051	$2,142,562
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur (D)	Democratic	R+5	Toss Up	73.0% (D)	5-May-26	Marcy Kaptur	H2OH09031	$4,303,416	Derek Merrin	H4OH09169	$1,508,953
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Ryan MacKenzie (R)	Republican	R+1	Toss Up	78.1% (D)	19-May-26	Bob Brooks	H6PA07188	$2,392,215	Ryan MacKenzie	H8PA15195	$4,357,405
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Rob Bresnahan (R)	Republican	R+4	Toss Up	65.0% (D)	19-May-26	Paige Cognetti	H6PA08293	$4,609,589	Rob Bresnahan	H4PA08124	$5,234,586
Texas	TX-15	Monica De La Cruz (R)	Republican	R+7	Toss Up ↑	69.7% (D)	3-Mar-26	Bobby Pulido	H6TX15246	$2,960,462	Monica De La Cruz	H0TX15124	$5,273,960
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry (R)	Republican	R+3	Toss Up	75.0% (D)	19-May-26	Janelle Stelson	H4PA10104	$6,364,069	Scott Perry	H2PA04135	$5,194,925
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez (D)	Democratic	R+3	Toss Up	85.8% (D)	3-Mar-26	Vicente Gonzalez	H6TX15162	$3,773,915	Eric Flores	H6TX34080	$2,874,990
Virginia	VA-01	Robert Wittman (R)	Republican	R+3	Lean R	61.8% (R)	4-Aug-26	Shannon Taylor	H6VA01299	$2,140,980	Robert Wittman	H8VA01147	$4,053,142
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans (R)	Republican	EVEN	Toss Up	75.0% (D)	4-Aug-26	Elaine Luria	H6VA02198	$4,659,795	Jen Kiggans	H2VA02064	$5,954,338
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)	Democratic	R+2	Toss Up	86.2% (D)	4-Aug-26	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	H2WA03217	$6,292,683	John Braun	H6WA03275	$2,214,441
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden (R)	Republican	R+3	Toss Up	67.2% (D)	11-Aug-26	Rebecca Cooke	H4WI03169	$8,601,146	Derrick Van Orden	H0WI03175	$7,526,052

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