Key Races ▸ By State ▸ Maine

Maine

Senate · Troy JacksonFLIP House · ME-02 · Matthew DunlapWATCH

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In Maine, unseating Republican Senator Susan Collins is the major story. Often criticized for claiming independence while voting consistently with the Trump administration, Collins faces a competitive race. Democratic contender Troy Dale Jackson posted a strong showing after disgraced candidate Graham Platner withdrew from the race. Jackson served for eight years in the Maine State Senate. Having worked as a self-employed logger, he is running on a populist platform, saying he will fight for working people, not the rich and powerful.
This U.S. Senate seat is the only one that Republicans are defending in a state that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election, having defeated Trump 52.4% to 45.5%. This, and the fact that Collins has consistently waffled, speaking one way and voting the opposite, has given a boost to Democratic chances of flipping the seat.

● Maine Governor Janet Mills is retiring due to constitutional term limits, as she is ineligible to run for a third consecutive four-year term. Polls show that Hannah Pingree (D) has an edge over Bobby Charles, and the race is rated safe Democratic by Cook Political Report.
● Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is one to watch since incumbent Democrat Jared Golden is not seeking reelection.
● ME-02 remains highly competitive: Golden narrowly won reelection in 2024, 50.35% to 49.65%. The district has voted for Donald Trump in the last three presidential elections, making it one of the few districts to support Trump while electing a Democrat to the House.
● Maine’s economy is struggling due to tariffs and declining cross-border tourism, with key industries such as lobster fishing and other fisheries reporting growing anxiety.
● Recent ICE activity, including “Operation Catch of the Day,” has raised concern in communities across the state.
● Healthcare access is under significant strain due to provisions in the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.” Medicaid cuts threaten hospitals, school programs, and nursing homes.

State Map

Key Races in Maine

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Senate

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑58.6% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$6,276,527Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$10,217,845
KansasKansasRoger Marshall (R)R+8Lean R76.4% (R)4-Aug-26Adam HamiltonS6KS00312$4,169,078Roger MarshallS0KS00315$6,205,622
MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup73.4% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$14,514,336Mike RogersS4MI00595$10,898,177
New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Toss Up ↓87.9% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$15,384,657John E. SununuS6NH00208$4,180,252
AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up63.9% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$18,545,132Dan SullivanS4AK00214$11,735,898
MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup63.1% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$0Susan CollinsS6ME00159$18,930,078
OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up61.9% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$38,566,234Jon HustedS6OH00304$14,360,028
TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑61.2% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$68,560,930Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$9,248,699

House

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
ColoradoCO-05Jeff Crank (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R62.6% (R)30-Jun-26Jessica KillinH6CO05324$3,143,744Jeff CrankH6CO05142$2,177,288
TexasTX-35OPEN (Casar) (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R60.6% (D)3-Mar-26Johnny GarciaH6TX35095$931,699Carlos de la CruzH6TX35087$1,048,751
WisconsinWI-01Bryan Steil (R)R+2Lean R ↑70.9% (R)11-Aug-26Mitchell BermanH6WI01283$712,984Bryan SteilH8WI01156$5,467,777
MontanaMT-01OPEN (Zinke (R))R+5Lean R ↑64.7% (R)2-Jun-26Sam ForstagH6MT01137$1,382,873Aaron FlintH6MT01152$1,303,394
FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R)R+6Lean R ↑63.7% (R)18-Aug-26Eliott RodriguezH6FL27098$661,173Maria Elvira SalazarH8FL27185$1,999,399
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6Lean R ↑79.2% (R)18-Aug-26Leela GrayH6FL13312$1,223,069Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$3,233,312
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑79.7% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$1,830,193Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$2,528,497Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up80.9% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$7,354,808Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$6,172,867Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up80.9% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$2,645,560David ValadaoH2CA20094$4,927,602Yes
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D87.8% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$2,174,872Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,258,836
ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up85.4% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$4,336,988Gabe EvansH4CO08034$5,393,673Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑67.0% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$2,337,999Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,116,747
FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑63.9% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$2,284,052Casey AskarH6FL22248$2,578,519
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up75.4% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,300,107Scott SingerH6FL23188$2,256,719
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up77.5% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$7,051,745Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$7,208,271
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Lean R ↑51.1% (R)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$1,628,201Joe MitchellH6IA02237$1,938,593
IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Toss Up74.6% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$5,293,773Zach NunnH2IA03119$4,869,249
MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R ↑64.0% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$2,620,011Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$4,093,991
MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up55.9% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$1,119,198Tom BarrettH2MI07123$6,306,828
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑63.5% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$1,211,489Michael BouchardH6MI10359$1,623,745
North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Lean R57.3% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$4,287,386Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$3,793,077
North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up ↑63.0% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$3,052,354Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$939,985
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑81.8% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$4,272,034Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$4,892,807
New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up70.5% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$4,317,457Mike LawlerH2NY17162$8,172,046
OhioOH-01Greg Landsman (D)DemocraticR+1Lean D90.0% (D)26-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$4,633,250Eric ConroyH6OH01138$1,513,614
OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up74.6% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$603,156Max MillerH2OH16051$2,142,562
OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up73.0% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$4,303,416Derek MerrinH4OH09169$1,508,953
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Toss Up78.1% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$2,392,215Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$4,357,405
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up65.0% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$4,609,589Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$5,234,586
TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Toss Up ↑69.7% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$2,960,462Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$5,273,960
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up75.0% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$6,364,069Scott PerryH2PA04135$5,194,925
TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up85.8% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$3,773,915Eric FloresH6TX34080$2,874,990
VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R61.8% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$2,140,980Robert WittmanH8VA01147$4,053,142
VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up75.0% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$4,659,795Jen KiggansH2VA02064$5,954,338
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Toss Up86.2% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$6,292,683John BraunH6WA03275$2,214,441
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up67.2% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$8,601,146Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$7,526,052

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