Republicans hold 20 of Florida’s 28 House seats. Florida's congressional landscape was reshaped with the state’s mid-decade redistricting, creating new and potentially confusing political dynamics across several key districts. The new congressional map altered district boundaries, voter composition, and campaign strategies. Amidst this political uncertainty, several Democratic incumbents are seeing reelection in substantially redesigned or completely different districts. FL-22 enters the election cycle without an incumbent, creating one of Florida's closely watched open-seat contests.

Florida Congressional districts 14, 22, and 25 have been identified as key races for Democrats to hold. Current FL-22 Congresswoman Lois Frankel is running in FL-23 because most of her district was moved into that district. Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz who currently represents FL-23 is now running for the seat in FL-25 in what may be one of Florida's most competitive races. FL-25 is currently represented by Debbie Wasserman Schultz, but in 2026 she is running for reelection in a bluer district, FL-20. Democrats are focused on defending the seat of Kathy Castor (FL-14) as she seeks reelection in a district now more heavily Republican.

The defeat of Trump-endorsed Republican incumbent Cory Miller in FL-07 by former television news anchor Ryan Elijah has put that district into the spotlight. Plagued by allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations, Miller seemed a vulnerable target for Democrats. Bale Dalton, U.S. Navy combat veteran and helicopter pilot, won the Democratic primary. The district is rated likely Republican, though that may change.

• In addition to FL-07, races to watch include FL-09, FL-13, and FL-27 as they remain key Democratic pickup opportunities, with both districts featuring competitive political environments and potentially favorable long-term demographic trends.

• Redistricting shifts are notable for Democrats. These races will attract substantial national attention and outside spending as control of the U.S. House hangs in the balance.

• Florida voters continue to prioritize affordability issues including housing and mounting property insurance costs, as well as healthcare access and affordability. Healthcare,

• Social Security and prescription drug prices continue to be key issues, particularly among seniors.

• The percentage of residents 65 or older is between 21 and 22 percent, or 4.55 million people. That number has consistently grown since 2007, a trend that is expected to continue.