Key Races ▸ By State ▸ Wisconsin

Wisconsin

House · WI-03FLIP House · WI-01WATCH

Primary: Aug 11, 2026

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Wisconsin is divided politically: Deep-red rural areas in the north/west and Democratic-stronghold urban centers in Milwaukee and Madison. Republicans hold six of eight U.S. House seats, but statewide contests are often won by slim margins.



Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional district, a largely rural area, is a possible flip. The incumbent is a vocal Trump supporter who has supported Trump’s tariffs, which have pummeled the state’s agricultural, manufacturing, and automotive sectors. Democrat Rebecca Cooke, a small business owner, has positioned herself as a centrist who supports policies important to working families.

  • WI-03 has attracted a crowded field, with four Democrats and three Independents on the August 11 primary ballot.
  • Cooke has been endorsed by Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
  • Vice President JD Vance has campaigned for Derrick Van Orden (R, WI-03), which may not be helpful since Trump’s net approval rating in the state is -10.
  • In 2024, Trump won the 3rd congressional district by 7 points, while Van Orden won it by less than 3.
  • Republicans maintain control of the WI state legislature, but new, non-gerrymandered districts will mean Democrats are hopeful to work to flip several seats.
  • In April, Democrats won big in the state Supreme Court election. Chris Taylor defeated Republican Maria Lazar in a landslide, expanding the court’s liberal majority from 4–3 to 5–2.
  • The race for the open governor’s seat is expected to be a fierce contest and is rated a tossup. Wisconsin is one of only five states with a Democratic governor that voted for Donald Trump.
  • Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional district is one to watch. Incumbent Bryan Steil (R) Steil voted to protect Trump’s tariffs from Congressional oversight and supports the Make Elections Great Again Act, which would limit the types of identification needed for voting, thus disenfranchising millions.
COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES


State District Incumbent Partisan Lean Cook Rating Votehub Rating Primary Date Dem Candidate $ Raised (Dem) Rep Candidate $ Raised (Rep)
Arizona AZ-01 OPEN (David Schweikert (R)) Republican R+1 Toss Up 75.5% (D) 21-Jul-26 Amish Shah H4AZ01194 $1,830,193 Thomas Feely H6AZ05190 $2,528,497 Yes
Arizona AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 77.9% (D) 21-Jul-26 JoAnna Mendoza H6AZ06099 $7,354,599 Juan Ciscomani H2AZ02360 $6,172,867 Yes
California CA-13 Adam Gray (D) Democratic D+2 Lean D 97.1% (D) 26-Jun-26 Adam Gray H2CA13115 $4,191,397 Kevin Lincoln H4CA09093 $2,237,084
California CA-22 David Valadao (R) Republican D+1 Toss Up 79.9% (D) 2-Jun-26 Randy Villegas H6CA22190 $2,645,560 David Valadao H2CA20094 $4,927,602 Yes
California CA-48 OPEN (Darrell Issa (R)) Republican D+2 Lean D 89.6% (D) 26-Jun-26 Marni von Wilpert H6CA48310 $2,174,872 Jim Desmond H6CA49128 $2,258,836
Colorado CO-08 Gabe Evans (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 80.0% (D) 30-Jun-26 Manny Rutinel H6CO08013 $4,336,988 Gabe Evans H4CO08034 $5,393,673 Yes
Florida FL-14 Kathy Castor (D) Democratic R+4 Lean R 60.2% (D) 18-Aug-26 Kathy Castor H6FL11126 $1,954,817
Florida FL-22 Lois Frankel (D) Democratic R+4 Lean R 68.1% (R) 18-Aug-26
Florida FL-25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) Democratic R+3 Toss Up 71.0% (D) 18-Aug-26 Jared Moskowitz H4FL20023 $3,146,283
Iowa IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) Republican R+4 Toss Up 72.2% (D) 2-Jun-26 Christina Bohannan H2IA02111 $7,051,745 Mariannette Miller-Meeks H8IA02043 $7,208,271
Iowa IA-02 OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R)) Republican R+4 Lean R ↑ 56.0% (R) 2-Jun-26 Lindsay James H6IA02211 $1,628,201 Joe Mitchell H6IA02237 $1,938,593
Iowa IA-03 Zach Nunn (R) Republican R+2 Toss Up 69.7% (D) 26-Jun-26 Sarah Trone Garriott H6IA03268 $5,293,773 Zach Nunn H2IA03119 $4,869,249
Michigan MI-04 Bill Huizenga (R) Republican R+3 Lean R ↑ 67.9% (R) 4-Aug-26 Sean McCann H6MI04204 $2,620,011 Bill Huizenga H0MI02094 $4,093,991
Michigan MI-07 Tom Barrett (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 56.6% (D) 4-Aug-26 William Lawrence H6MI07298 $1,119,198 Tom Barrett H2MI07123 $6,306,828
Michigan MI-08 Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) Democratic R+1 Lean D 95.5% (D) 4-Aug-26 Kristen McDonald Rivet H4MI08218 $5,644,876 Thomas Smith H6MI08312 $0
Michigan MI-10 OPEN (John James - (R)) Republican R+3 Lean R 61.8% (D) 4-Aug-26 Christina Hines H6MI10276 $1,211,489 Michael Bouchard H6MI10359 $1,414,724
North Carolina NC-01 Don Davis (D) Democratic R+5 Lean R 53.3% (D) 3-Mar-26 Don Davis H2NC02287 $4,287,386 Laurie Buckhout H4NC01137 $3,793,077
North Carolina NC-11 Chuck Edwards (R) Republican R+5 Lean R ↑ 61.8% (D) 26-Mar-26 Jamie Ager H6NC11248 $3,052,354 Chuck Edwards H2NC14050 $939,985
Nebraska NE-02 OPEN (Don Bacon (R)) Republican D+3 Lean D 92.3% (D) 12-May-26 Denise Powell H6NE02174 $2,668,287 Brinker Harding H6NE02208 $2,034,386
New Jersey NJ-07 Thomas Kean (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 76.5% (D) 2-Jun-26 Rebecca Bennett H6NJ07201 $4,272,034 Thomas Kean H0NJ07261 $4,892,807
New Mexico NM-02 Gabe Vasquez (D) Democratic EVEN Lean D 94.1% (D) 2-Jun-26 Gabe Vasquez H2NM02191 $3,784,102 Greg Cunningham H6NM02127 $1,510,080
Nevada NV-03 Susie Lee (D) Democratic D+1 Lean D 89.6% (D) 9-Jun-26 Susie Lee H6NV04020 $4,401,421 Marty O'Donnell H6NV03204 $4,055,410
New York NY-03 Tom Suozzi (D) Democratic EVEN Lean D 92.7% (D) 26-Jun-26 Tom Suozzi H6NY03247 $5,456,698 Michael LiPetri H0NY02267 $1,666,542
New York NY-04 Laura Gillen (D) Democratic D+2 Lean D 95.7% (D) 23-Jun-26 Laura Gillen H2NY04244 $5,097,222
Jeanine Driscoll
 H6NY04211 $264,824
New York NY-17 Mike Lawler (R) Republican D+1 Toss Up 69.3% (D) 23-Jun-26 H6NY17171 $4,317,457 Mike Lawler H2NY17162 $8,172,046
New York NY-19 Josh Riley (D) Democratic D+1 Likely D ↑ 92.0% (D) 23-Jun-26 Josh Riley H8NY22177 $4,825,666
Peter Oberacker
 H6NY19268 $1,237,179
Ohio OH-01 Greg Landsman (D) Democratic R+1 Lean D 89.5% (D) 26-May-26 Greg Landsman H2OH01194 $4,633,250 Eric Conroy H6OH01138 $1,513,614
Ohio OH-09 Marcy Kaptur (D) Democratic R+5 Toss Up 70.2% (D) 5-May-26 Marcy Kaptur H2OH09031 $4,303,416 Derek Merrin H4OH09169 $1,508,953
Pennsylvania PA-07 Ryan MacKenzie (R) Republican R+1 Toss Up 69.9% (D) 19-May-26 Bob Brooks H6PA07188 $2,392,215 Ryan MacKenzie H8PA15195 $4,357,405
Pennsylvania PA-08 Rob Bresnahan (R) Republican R+4 Toss Up 61.5% (D) 19-May-26 Paige Cognetti H6PA08293 $4,609,589 Rob Bresnahan H4PA08124 $5,234,586
Pennsylvania PA-10 Scott Perry (R) Republican R+3 Toss Up 73.3% (D) 19-May-26 Janelle Stelson H4PA10104 $6,364,069 Scott Perry H2PA04135 $5,194,925
Texas TX-28 Henry Cuellar (D) Democratic R+3 Lean D 89.5% (D) 3-Mar-26 Henry Cuellar H2TX23082 $2,231,952 Tano Tijerina H6TX28124 $1,399,881
Texas TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez (D) Democratic R+3 Toss Up 80.5% (D) 3-Mar-26 Vicente Gonzalez H6TX15162 $3,773,915 Eric Flores H6TX34080 $2,874,990
Virginia VA-01 Robert Wittman (R) Republican R+3 Lean R 60.0% (R) 4-Aug-26 Shannon Taylor H6VA01299 $2,140,930 Robert Wittman H8VA01147 $4,053,142
Virginia VA-02 Jen Kiggans (R) Republican EVEN Toss Up 70.5% (D) 4-Aug-26 Elaine Luria H6VA02198 $4,659,795 Jen Kiggans H2VA02064 $5,954,338
Washington WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) Democratic R+2 Toss Up 83.6% (D) 4-Aug-26 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez H2WA03217 $6,292,683 John Braun H6WA03275 $2,035,255
Wisconsin WI-03 Derrick Van Orden (R) Republican R+3 Toss Up 60.5% (D) 11-Aug-26 Rebecca Cooke H4WI03169 $8,601,146 Derrick Van Orden H0WI03175 $7,526,052
State Map

Key Races in Wisconsin

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Senate

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Lean R ↑65.7% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$6,276,527Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$10,217,845
MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup62.8% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$14,514,336Mike RogersS4MI00595$10,898,177
New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D89.4% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26
North CarolinaNorth CarolinaOPEN -- (Thom Tillis (R))R+1Lean D89.9% (D)Tossup3-Mar-26Roy CooperS6NC00407$34,975,789Michael WhatleyS6NC00415$11,272,504
AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up52.0% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$18,545,132Dan SullivanS4AK00214$11,735,898
GeorgiaGeorgiaJon Ossoff (D)R+1Lean D92.2% (D)Lean D19-May-26Jon OssoffS8GA00180$97,986,263Mike CollinsS6GA00390$7,409,350
MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup63.6% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$0Susan CollinsS6ME00159$18,930,078
OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up51.1% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$38,566,234Jon HustedS6OH00304$14,360,028
TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Lean R50.6% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$68,555,930Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$9,248,699

House

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Toss Up75.5% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$1,830,193Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$2,528,497Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up77.9% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$7,354,599Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$6,172,867Yes
CaliforniaCA-13Adam Gray (D)DemocraticD+2Lean D97.1% (D)26-Jun-26Adam GrayH2CA13115$4,191,397Kevin LincolnH4CA09093$2,237,084
CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up79.9% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$2,645,560David ValadaoH2CA20094$4,927,602Yes
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D89.6% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$2,174,872Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,258,836
ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up80.0% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$4,336,988Gabe EvansH4CO08034$5,393,673Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R60.2% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$1,954,817
FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R68.1% (R)18-Aug-26
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up71.0% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,146,283
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up72.2% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$7,051,745Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$7,208,271
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Lean R ↑56.0% (R)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$1,628,201Joe MitchellH6IA02237$1,938,593
IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Toss Up69.7% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$5,293,773Zach NunnH2IA03119$4,869,249
MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R ↑67.9% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$2,620,011Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$4,093,991
MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up56.6% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$1,119,198Tom BarrettH2MI07123$6,306,828
MichiganMI-08Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)DemocraticR+1Lean D95.5% (D)4-Aug-26Kristen McDonald RivetH4MI08218$5,644,876Thomas SmithH6MI08312$0
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Lean R61.8% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$1,211,489Michael BouchardH6MI10359$1,414,724
North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Lean R53.3% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$4,287,386Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$3,793,077
North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R ↑61.8% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$3,052,354Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$939,985
NebraskaNE-02OPEN (Don Bacon (R))RepublicanD+3Lean D92.3% (D)12-May-26Denise PowellH6NE02174$2,668,287Brinker HardingH6NE02208$2,034,386
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up76.5% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$4,272,034Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$4,892,807
New MexicoNM-02Gabe Vasquez (D)DemocraticEVENLean D94.1% (D)2-Jun-26Gabe VasquezH2NM02191$3,784,102Greg CunninghamH6NM02127$1,510,080
NevadaNV-03Susie Lee (D)DemocraticD+1Lean D89.6% (D)9-Jun-26Susie LeeH6NV04020$4,401,421Marty O'Donnell H6NV03204$4,055,410
New YorkNY-03Tom Suozzi (D)DemocraticEVENLean D92.7% (D)26-Jun-26Tom SuozziH6NY03247$5,456,698Michael LiPetriH0NY02267$1,666,542
New YorkNY-04Laura Gillen (D)DemocraticD+2Lean D95.7% (D)23-Jun-26Laura GillenH2NY04244$5,097,222
Jeanine Driscoll
H6NY04211$264,824
New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up69.3% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$4,317,457Mike LawlerH2NY17162$8,172,046
New YorkNY-19Josh Riley (D)DemocraticD+1Likely D ↑92.0% (D)23-Jun-26Josh RileyH8NY22177$4,825,666
Peter Oberacker
H6NY19268$1,237,179
OhioOH-01Greg Landsman (D)DemocraticR+1Lean D89.5% (D)26-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$4,633,250Eric ConroyH6OH01138$1,513,614
OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up70.2% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$4,303,416Derek MerrinH4OH09169$1,508,953
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Toss Up69.9% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$2,392,215Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$4,357,405
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up61.5% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$4,609,589Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$5,234,586
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up73.3% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$6,364,069Scott PerryH2PA04135$5,194,925
TexasTX-28Henry Cuellar (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D89.5% (D)3-Mar-26Henry CuellarH2TX23082$2,231,952Tano TijerinaH6TX28124$1,399,881
TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up80.5% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$3,773,915Eric FloresH6TX34080$2,874,990
VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R60.0% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$2,140,930Robert WittmanH8VA01147$4,053,142
VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up70.5% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$4,659,795Jen KiggansH2VA02064$5,954,338
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Toss Up83.6% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$6,292,683John BraunH6WA03275$2,035,255
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up60.5% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$8,601,146Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$7,526,052

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