Key Races ▸ By State ▸ Colorado

Colorado

House · CO-05 · Jessica KillinFLIP House · CO-08 · Manny RutinelFLIP

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Shifts in demographics have made Colorado a battleground state. And two Colorado district, CO-05 and CO-08, are prime districts for flipping. Republican Gabe Evans is serving his first term but won his race against Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo by a mere 2,449 votes, or 0.8 points. The slim margin of Evans' win makes this a race to watch.

Colorado has had a Democratic governor for 24 of the past 32 years; since 2008, the state has voted Democratic in five consecutive presidential elections. The trend toward Democrats has been due to the rising percentage of young, college-educated, suburban, and unaffiliated voters.

  • In CO-08, Democratic candidate Manny Rutinel, in his 30s, is a former environmental attorney who now serves in the Colorado House of Representatives.
  • Rutinel was raised by a single mother who had come to the United States for a better life. He worked throughout his years at community college, college, and graduate school, eventually earning a law degree from Yale University.
  • Incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans has been endorsed by Trump. His rhetoric on immigrants shrieks hypocrisy. He consistently claimed his grandfather emigrated from Mexico “legally,” but an Immigration and Naturalization Service document proves otherwise.
  • Evans supported the Big Ugly Bill, which included cuts that are projected to cause the loss of about 17,500 jobs in Colorado in 2029 (resulting in a state tax revenue loss of $150 million), as well as hastening the closing of three rural hospitals.
  • In CO-05, Jessica Killin, Army captain and paratrooper, also worked as chief of staff to former second gentleman Doug Emhoff and worked for over a decade as an executive at the insurance company USAA.
  • Killin faces one-term incumbent Jeff Crank, a former conservative talk show host who peddled election-fraud conspiracy theories and embraced the white supremacist conspiracy known as the “Great Replacement Theory.”
  • A poll conducted by Global Strategy Group measuring the favorability of political figures among likely voters in Colorado’s 5th congressional district found Crank had a 29% favorable and 30% unfavorable rating.
  • The deaths of U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti at the hands of ICE agents have shaken support across the district, despite the fact that many initially had supported ICE activities.
  • Colorado voters cite affordability and high costs as a top concern, from gas and food prices to housing and childcare costs.
State Map

Key Races in Colorado

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Senate

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑55.8% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$6,276,527Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$13,472,386
KansasKansasRoger Marshall (R)R+8Toss Up ↑65.3% (R)4-Aug-26Adam HamiltonS6KS00312$4,169,078Roger MarshallS0KS00315$7,006,240
MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup72.3% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$14,514,336Mike RogersS4MI00595$20,565,706
New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D ↑87.9% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$15,384,657John E. SununuS6NH00208$5,334,886
AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up67.2% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$32,623,722Dan SullivanS4AK00214$13,760,055
MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup61.9% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$20,431,280Susan CollinsS6ME00159$24,131,410
OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up67.1% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$38,566,234Jon HustedS6OH00304$19,208,763
TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑60.7% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$68,560,930Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$19,497,810

House

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
South CarolinaSC-01OPEN (Mace) (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R67.8% (R)Nancy LacoreH6SC01359$4,429,295Jenny HoneycuttH6SC01334$1,193,975
OhioOH-15Mike Carey (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R76.5% (R)Don LeonardH6OH15112$1,145,777Mike CareyH2OH15228$4,002,961
OhioOH-10Mike Turner (R)RepublicanR+4Lean R84.6% (R)Kristina KnickerbockerH6OH10121$883,182Mike TurnerH2OH03067$1,236,096
New YorkNY-21OPEN (Stefanik) (R)RepublicanR+10Lean R84.7% (R)Blake GendebienH6NY21199$7,184,413Anthony ConstantinoH6NY21157$17,064,872
MinnesotaMN-01Brad Finstad (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R74.7% (R)Jacob JohnsonH6MN01190$3,205,255Brad FinstadH2MN01223$2,608,655
PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian Fitzpatrick (R)D+1Lean R ↑65.1% (R)19-May-26Bob HarvieH6PA01181$2,007,556Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277$7,774,187
MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden (D))R+4Lean R ↑63.9% (R)9-Jun-26H6ME02171$2,671,904Paul LePageH6ME02148$3,233,257
KentuckyKY-06OPEN (Barr) (R)R+7Lean R68.1% (R)19-May-26Zach DemboH6KY06184$1,466,530Ralph AlvaradoH6KY06192$2,187,944
ColoradoCO-05Jeff Crank (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R66.3% (R)30-Jun-26Jessica KillinH6CO05324$4,968,409Jeff CrankH6CO05142$2,783,883
TexasTX-35OPEN (Casar) (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R61.4% (D)3-Mar-26Johnny GarciaH6TX35095$931,699Carlos de la CruzH6TX35087$1,892,231
WisconsinWI-01Bryan Steil (R)RepublicanR+2Lean R ↑67.5% (R)11-Aug-26Mitchell BermanH6WI01283$1,610,305Bryan SteilH8WI01156$6,251,359
MontanaMT-01OPEN (Zinke (R))R+5Toss Up ↑60.7% (R)2-Jun-26Sam ForstagH6MT01137$1,383,098Aaron FlintH6MT01152$2,640,894
FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R)R+6Lean R ↑69.5% (R)18-Aug-26Eliott RodriguezH6FL27098$661,173Maria Elvira SalazarH8FL27185$2,368,783
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6Lean R ↑79.1% (R)18-Aug-26Leela GrayH6FL13312$2,567,273Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$4,089,080
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑76.8% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$1,830,193Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$2,528,497Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up81.1% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$7,354,808Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$7,474,803Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up83.5% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$2,645,566David ValadaoH2CA20094$4,927,602Yes
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D85.3% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$2,174,872Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,985,951
ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up87.7% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$4,336,988Gabe EvansH4CO08034$6,904,664Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑71.0% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$4,502,017Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,583,857
FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑63.1% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$2,284,052Casey AskarH6FL22248$4,935,512
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑73.9% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,643,469Scott SingerH6FL23188$2,959,922
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Lean D ↑80.2% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$9,468,352Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$8,924,570
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Toss Up ↑58.3% (D)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$3,524,080Joe MitchellH6IA02237$2,683,808
IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Lean D ↑76.4% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$7,654,894Zach NunnH2IA03119$4,869,249
MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑62.2% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$4,310,699Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$5,367,471
MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up54.9% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$1,119,198Tom BarrettH2MI07123$7,891,381
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑64.5% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$3,518,814Michael BouchardH6MI10359$2,568,835
North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up ↑70.8% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$4,287,386Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$4,726,318
North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up ↑72.2% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$5,401,765Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$1,025,828
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑86.6% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$8,193,416Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$4,892,807
New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up61.3% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$4,318,477Mike LawlerH2NY17162$10,001,206
OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up78.1% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$3,072,898Max MillerH2OH16051$3,289,528
OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up72.6% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$5,584,405Derek MerrinH4OH09169$2,083,931
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑80.2% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$4,991,635Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$5,167,023
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up72.0% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$7,095,684Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$6,197,786
TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Toss Up ↑78.0% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$2,960,462Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$6,551,097
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑75.8% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$8,689,755Scott PerryH2PA04135$6,457,001
TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up86.8% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$3,773,915Eric FloresH6TX34080$3,830,063
VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑54.2% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$2,140,980Robert WittmanH8VA01147$5,216,106
VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up78.7% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$7,364,705Jen KiggansH2VA02064$7,240,304
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Lean D ↑86.3% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$6,292,683John BraunH6WA03275$3,203,193
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up70.1% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$8,601,146Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$7,526,052

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