Key Races ▸ By State ▸ Ohio

Ohio

Senate · Sherrod BrownFLIP House · OH-01 · Greg LandsmanHOLD House · OH-07 · Brian PoindexterFLIP House · OH-09 · KapturHOLD

In what has recently become a reliably red state, Sherrod Brown is once again polling very strong, and there is a real pickup opportunity in the Senate. There are also two key House races that we need to hold onto that shifted redder in last year's redistricting wars.

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Former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown is battling to regain his seat after having served in the Senate for 18 years. He is running against Republican Jon Husted who was appointed to serve as senator because of the vacancy caused by J.D. Vance becoming vice president. In recent years, Ohio has tilted toward the right; however, a majority of voters in the state oppose the tactics of ICE, and that could be a factor in the midterms.

Two Ohio Democrats are striving to hang onto their Congressional seats – Rep. Greg Landsman (OH-01) and Marcy Kaptur (OH-09). Last year’s redistricting shifted the balance in these districts. Landsman’s district is now lean Republican; Kaptur’s is significantly redder. Brian Poindexter (OH-07) is running to flip the congressional seat held by vulnerable candidate Max Miller.

• The Ohio gubernatorial race is attracting attention. Democrat Dr. Amy Acton has been gaining ground, particularly with women voters, over Republican Vivek Ramaswami

• In the Senate race, Husted is endorsed by Trump and has accepted campaign donations from Les Wexner, an associate of Jeffrey Epstein, before voting against releasing the Epstein files.

• Brown, long considered a champion of working people, founded the Dignity of Work Institute in March 2025, at think tank which supports politics focused on the cost of living for working class voters.

• Landsman flipped OH-01 in 2022 in a contest against a long-time Republican legislator. A former teacher, Landsman served in the Cincinnati City Council before being elected to Congress.

• Kaptur is the longest serving woman in U.S. House of Representatives history. She served as an urban policy advisor in the Carter administration from 1977 to 1979

State Map

Key Races in Ohio

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Senate

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑58.6% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$6,276,527Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$10,217,845
KansasKansasRoger Marshall (R)R+8Lean R76.4% (R)4-Aug-26Adam HamiltonS6KS00312$4,169,078Roger MarshallS0KS00315$6,205,622
MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup73.4% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$14,514,336Mike RogersS4MI00595$10,898,177
New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Toss Up ↓87.9% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$15,384,657John E. SununuS6NH00208$4,180,252
AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up63.9% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$18,545,132Dan SullivanS4AK00214$11,735,898
MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup63.1% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$0Susan CollinsS6ME00159$18,930,078
OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up61.9% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$38,566,234Jon HustedS6OH00304$14,360,028
TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑61.2% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$68,560,930Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$9,248,699

House

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
ColoradoCO-05Jeff Crank (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R62.6% (R)30-Jun-26Jessica KillinH6CO05324$3,143,744Jeff CrankH6CO05142$2,177,288
TexasTX-35OPEN (Casar) (D)DemocraticR+4Lean R60.6% (D)3-Mar-26Johnny GarciaH6TX35095$931,699Carlos de la CruzH6TX35087$1,048,751
WisconsinWI-01Bryan Steil (R)R+2Lean R ↑70.9% (R)11-Aug-26Mitchell BermanH6WI01283$712,984Bryan SteilH8WI01156$5,467,777
MontanaMT-01OPEN (Zinke (R))R+5Lean R ↑64.7% (R)2-Jun-26Sam ForstagH6MT01137$1,382,873Aaron FlintH6MT01152$1,303,394
FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R)R+6Lean R ↑63.7% (R)18-Aug-26Eliott RodriguezH6FL27098$661,173Maria Elvira SalazarH8FL27185$1,999,399
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6Lean R ↑79.2% (R)18-Aug-26Leela GrayH6FL13312$1,223,069Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$3,233,312
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑79.7% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$1,830,193Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$2,528,497Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up80.9% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$7,354,808Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$6,172,867Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up80.9% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$2,645,560David ValadaoH2CA20094$4,927,602Yes
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D87.8% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$2,174,872Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,258,836
ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up85.4% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$4,336,988Gabe EvansH4CO08034$5,393,673Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑67.0% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$2,337,999Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,116,747
FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑63.9% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$2,284,052Casey AskarH6FL22248$2,578,519
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up75.4% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,300,107Scott SingerH6FL23188$2,256,719
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up77.5% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$7,051,745Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$7,208,271
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Lean R ↑51.1% (R)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$1,628,201Joe MitchellH6IA02237$1,938,593
IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Toss Up74.6% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$5,293,773Zach NunnH2IA03119$4,869,249
MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R ↑64.0% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$2,620,011Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$4,093,991
MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up55.9% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$1,119,198Tom BarrettH2MI07123$6,306,828
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑63.5% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$1,211,489Michael BouchardH6MI10359$1,623,745
North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Lean R57.3% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$4,287,386Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$3,793,077
North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up ↑63.0% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$3,052,354Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$939,985
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑81.8% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$4,272,034Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$4,892,807
New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up70.5% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$4,317,457Mike LawlerH2NY17162$8,172,046
OhioOH-01Greg Landsman (D)DemocraticR+1Lean D90.0% (D)26-May-26Greg LandsmanH2OH01194$4,633,250Eric ConroyH6OH01138$1,513,614
OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up74.6% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$603,156Max MillerH2OH16051$2,142,562
OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up73.0% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$4,303,416Derek MerrinH4OH09169$1,508,953
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Toss Up78.1% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$2,392,215Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$4,357,405
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up65.0% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$4,609,589Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$5,234,586
TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Toss Up ↑69.7% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$2,960,462Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$5,273,960
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up75.0% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$6,364,069Scott PerryH2PA04135$5,194,925
TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Toss Up85.8% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$3,773,915Eric FloresH6TX34080$2,874,990
VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Lean R61.8% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$2,140,980Robert WittmanH8VA01147$4,053,142
VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up75.0% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$4,659,795Jen KiggansH2VA02064$5,954,338
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Toss Up86.2% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$6,292,683John BraunH6WA03275$2,214,441
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up67.2% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$8,601,146Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$7,526,052

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