Key Races ▸ By State ▸ New York

New York

House · NY-03 · Tom SuozziHOLD House · NY-04 · Laura GillenHOLD House · NY-17 · Cait ConleyFLIP House · NY-19 · Josh RileyHOLD

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New York plays a key role in the Democrats’ quest to regain control of the House and overcome the Trump administration's efforts to dismantle the government and to corrupt our democracy. Of the 26 NY congressional districts, Democrats hold a 19 to 7 edge. However, four key districts are rated as battlegrounds. Three are held by Democrats (NY-03, 04 and 19) while one (CD-17) is held by a Republican that is ripe for a flip. In 2024, Democrats regained three of the House seats they lost in 2022. Continuing that momentum is essential to controlling the House of Representatives.

In NY-17, incumbent Republican Mike Lawler appears to be vulnerable to a flip; the district voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Lawler’s chaotic town hall meeting this year culminated in the forcible removal of a 64-year-old social worker who had the audacity to ask a question, giving Lawler a deeply troubling image. Democratic contender Cait Conley, a 16-year U.S. Army officer who served on the White House National Security Council and at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is behind Lawler in fundraising. However, her campaign is gaining momentum as she has hit hard against Lawler's legislative record, particularly his votes on healthcare and Medicaid policies.

Three NY Democratically held seats have been targeted by the GOP. In NY-03, incumbent Tom Suozzi, who captured the seat once held by disgraced liar and Republican George Santos, is in a rematch from 2024 with opponent Michael LiPerti in one of the 23 Democratic-held districts that Trump won in 2024. LiPerti is Trump-endorsed. Democrat Laura Gillen, NY-04 is in her first term. Prior to being elected to the House Gillen was the first Democrat elected Hempstead town supervisor in 112 years. Josh Riley (NY-19) was elected in 2024. Early in his career, Riley turned down Wall Street offers to represent the American Academy for Pediatrics in a landmark civil rights lawsuit to help children from low-income families get access to healthcare.

  • In NY-17, Democrat Conley's campaign website said, “The same politicians who created this mess won’t be the ones who fix it. She has the courage to do what’s right, the strength to fight and win against Donald Trump and his enablers like Mike Lawler.”
  • Suozzi (NY-03) is running on his experience as a legislator and his bipartisan approach to building consensus, as demonstrated by serving as the co-chair of the House Problem Solver caucus.
  • When Gillen (NY-04) served as Hempstead town supervisor she enacted cost saving measures that enabled the town to lower residents’ taxes after years of tax hikes.
  • As a practicing attorney, Gillen worked as a litigator and did significant pro bono work for victims of domestic violence.
  • Gillen’s Republican opponent is Jeanine Driscoll, who has raised little in campaign funds and is a little-known local tax receiver who only entered the race after Anthony D'Esposito dropped out.
  • As general counsel to U.S. Senator Al Franken on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Riley (NY-19) helped pass bipartisan legislation to protect survivors of domestic violence and combat the opioid epidemic.
  • Riley’s Republican challenger is Peter Oberacker, food scientist and founder of FormTech Solutions, who served in the New York State Senate and is campaigning on a no-new-tax platform.
State Map

Key Races in New York

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Senate

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑57.1% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$20,152,882Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$13,472,386
KansasKansasRoger Marshall (R)R+8Toss Up ↑66.0% (R)4-Aug-26Adam HamiltonS6KS00312$13,533,711Roger MarshallS0KS00315$7,006,240
MinnesotaMinnesotaOPEN (Smith) (D)D+3Lean D84.9% (D)Peggy FlanaganS6MN00440$10,301,879Michele TafoyaS6MN00556$9,661,129
South CarolinaSouth CarolinaDarline Graham (R)R+8Lean R82.6% (R)Annie AndrewsS6SC04239$20,173,697Darline GrahamS6SC04437$1,827,626
MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup71.7% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$45,175,567Mike RogersS4MI00595$20,565,706
New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D ↑88.3% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$21,500,073John E. SununuS6NH00208$5,334,886
AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up68.1% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$32,623,722Dan SullivanS4AK00214$13,760,055
MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup63.5% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$20,431,280Susan CollinsS6ME00159$24,131,410
OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up65.7% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$61,686,820Jon HustedS6OH00304$19,208,763
TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑62.6% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$128,772,835Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$19,497,810

House

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
New YorkNY-21OPEN (Stefanik) (R)RepublicanR+10Lean R83.1% (R)Blake GendebienH6NY21199$7,184,413Anthony ConstantinoH6NY21157$17,064,872
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6Lean R ↑76.6% (R)18-Aug-26Leela GrayH6FL13312$2,567,273Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$4,089,080
FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R)R+6Lean R ↑68.4% (R)18-Aug-26Eliott RodriguezH6FL27098$1,339,984Maria Elvira SalazarH8FL27185$2,368,783
MontanaMT-01OPEN (Zinke (R))R+5Toss Up ↑57.4% (R)2-Jun-26Sam ForstagH6MT01137$3,690,160Aaron FlintH6MT01152$2,640,894
WisconsinWI-01Bryan Steil (R)RepublicanR+2Lean R ↑66.9% (R)11-Aug-26Mitchell BermanH6WI01283$1,610,305Bryan SteilH8WI01156$6,251,359
TexasTX-35OPEN (Casar) (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑65.5% (D)3-Mar-26Johnny GarciaH6TX35095$1,917,104Carlos de la CruzH6TX35087$1,892,231
ColoradoCO-05Jeff Crank (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R65.0% (R)30-Jun-26Jessica KillinH6CO05324$4,968,409Jeff CrankH6CO05142$2,783,883
KentuckyKY-06OPEN (Barr) (R)R+7Toss Up ↑62.7% (R)19-May-26Zach DemboH6KY06184$2,871,241Ralph AlvaradoH6KY06192$2,187,944
MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden (D))R+4Lean R ↑61.5% (R)9-Jun-26H6ME02171$2,671,904Paul LePageH6ME02148$3,233,257
PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian Fitzpatrick (R)D+1Lean R ↑63.5% (R)19-May-26Bob HarvieH6PA01181$2,895,901Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277$7,774,187
MinnesotaMN-01Brad Finstad (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R71.9% (R)Jacob JohnsonH6MN01190$3,205,255Brad FinstadH2MN01223$2,608,655
OhioOH-10Mike Turner (R)RepublicanR+4Lean R79.5% (R)Kristina KnickerbockerH6OH10121$883,182Mike TurnerH2OH03067$1,236,096
OhioOH-15Mike Carey (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R74.3% (R)Don LeonardH6OH15112$1,145,777Mike CareyH2OH15228$4,002,961
South CarolinaSC-01OPEN (Mace) (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R64.9% (R)Nancy LacoreH6SC01359$4,429,295Jenny HoneycuttH6SC01334$1,193,975
AlaskaAK-ALNick Begich III (R)R+6Lean R ↑80.5% (R)18-Aug-26Bill Hill (IND)H6AK01092$2,348,817Nick Begich IIIH2AK01083$6,320,644
ArizonaAZ-02Eli Crane (R)R+7Lean R ↑69.0% (R)21-Jul-26Jonathan NezH4AZ02184$5,361,320Eli CraneH2AZ01354$11,551,401
TexasTX-23VACANT (0)R+7Lean R57.6% (R)Katy Padilla StoutH6TX23273$1,117,715Brandon HerreraH4TX23120$3,115,205
NevadaNV-02OPEN (Amodei) (R)RepublicanR+7Lean R74.0% (R)Teresa Benitez-ThompsonH6NV02362$1,054,467David FlippoH4NV04108$2,934,108
ColoradoCO-04Lauren Boebert (R)RepublicanR+9Lean R62.7% (R)Eileen LaubacherH6CO04202$13,700,426Lauren BoebertH0CO03165$1,226,253
AlabamaAL-02Shomari Figures (D)DemocraticR+7Lean R60.5% (R)Shomari FiguresH4AL02170$2,706,098Rhett MarquesH6AL01086$1,716,374
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑77.3% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$5,031,605Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$3,432,885Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑83.1% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$10,760,731Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$7,474,803Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up83.9% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$5,465,022David ValadaoH2CA20094$6,058,553Yes
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D86.4% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$4,518,377Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,985,951
ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑88.9% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$8,578,254Gabe EvansH4CO08034$6,904,664Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑72.4% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$4,502,017Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,614,968
FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑57.2% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$3,930,912Casey AskarH6FL22248$4,969,075
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑77.3% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,643,469Scott SingerH6FL23188$2,989,409
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Lean D ↑82.6% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$9,468,352Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$8,924,570
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Toss Up ↑60.3% (D)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$3,524,080Joe MitchellH6IA02237$2,683,808
IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Lean D ↑76.7% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$7,654,894Zach NunnH2IA03119$5,968,952
MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑60.0% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$4,310,699Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$5,367,471
MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up56.5% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$3,665,521Tom BarrettH2MI07123$7,891,381
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑65.4% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$3,518,814Michael BouchardH6MI10359$2,568,845
North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up ↑71.5% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$5,572,578Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$4,726,318
North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Lean D ↑74.2% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$5,401,765Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$1,025,828
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑87.1% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$8,193,416Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$5,867,419
New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up61.4% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$9,665,461Mike LawlerH2NY17162$10,001,206
OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up79.3% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$3,072,898Max MillerH2OH16051$3,289,528
OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up73.7% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$5,584,405Derek MerrinH4OH09169$2,083,931
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑81.0% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$4,991,635Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$5,167,023
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up72.6% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$7,095,684Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$6,197,786
TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Toss Up ↑81.1% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$6,213,369Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$6,551,097
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑76.3% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$8,689,755Scott PerryH2PA04135$6,457,001
TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑87.4% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$4,956,873Eric FloresH6TX34080$3,830,063
VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑52.8% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$4,192,970Robert WittmanH8VA01147$5,216,106
VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑81.2% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$7,364,705Jen KiggansH2VA02064$7,240,304
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Lean D ↑87.0% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$8,838,141John BraunH6WA03275$3,203,193
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑71.8% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$11,959,646Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$8,794,975

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