Key Races ▸ By State ▸ Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania

House · PA-07 · Bob BrooksFLIP House · PA-08 · Paige CognettiFLIP House · PA-10 · Janelle StelsonFLIP House · PA-01 · Bob HarvieWATCH

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Pennsylvania is a top battleground for control of the U.S. House in 2026, with Democrats targeting three Republican-held districts: Pennsylvania's 7th, 8th, and 10th. The Cook Political Report rates all three as Toss-Ups, putting first-term Representatives Ryan Mackenzie (R, PA-07) and Rob Bresnahan (R, PA-08), along with longtime Rep. Scott Perry (R, PA-10), on defense. Governor Josh Shapiro, D, is actively targeting these incumbent Republican seats through coordinated campaign investments.

Democratic challengers Bob Brooks (PA-07), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) are running in districts with sharply local concerns — from wages and jobs in the Lehigh Valley to data-center development in northeastern Pennsylvania and a closely watched rematch in the Harrisburg-area district.

Erin Covey, who leads Cook Political Report's coverage of the House, stresses the importance of the state. “More so than any state, Pennsylvania will help decide control of the House next year,” she says. “It's always an important state, but this year it's a huge part of that House battleground.”

  • PA-07 — Brooks, a retired Bethlehem firefighter and labor leader, is challenging Mackenzie in a Lehigh Valley race shaped by wages, jobs, public safety, and working-class concerns.
  • PA-08 — Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton, is challenging Bresnahan as data-center growth, electricity costs, local control, and infrastructure emerge as defining issues.
  • PA-10 — Stelson is seeking a rematch with Perry after losing by about 1.3 points in 2024; the contest has already become Pennsylvania's most expensive congressional race.
  • Race to Watch — PA-01: Bob Harvie (D) is challenging Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) in Bucks County; Ballotpedia lists the district as a 2026 House battleground, while Cook rates it “Likely Republican.”
  • Pennsylvania's U.S. House delegation currently leans 9–8 in favor of Republicans. If Democrats can sweep the three seats, the state will flip to 10–7 in favor of Democrats.
State Map

Key Races in Pennsylvania

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Senate

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDemocratic Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Republican Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
IowaIowaOPEN - (Joni Ernst (R))R+6Toss Up ↑57.1% (R)Lean R2-Jun-26Josh TurekS6IA00298$20,152,882Ashley HinsonS6IA00314$13,472,386
KansasKansasRoger Marshall (R)R+8Toss Up ↑66.0% (R)4-Aug-26Adam HamiltonS6KS00312$13,533,711Roger MarshallS0KS00315$7,006,240
MinnesotaMinnesotaOPEN (Smith) (D)D+3Lean D84.9% (D)Peggy FlanaganS6MN00440$10,301,879Michele TafoyaS6MN00556$9,661,129
South CarolinaSouth CarolinaDarline Graham (R)R+8Lean R82.6% (R)Annie AndrewsS6SC04239$20,173,697Darline GrahamS6SC04437$1,827,626
MichiganMichiganOPEN -- (Gary Peters (D))R+0Tossup71.7% (D)Tossup4-Aug-26Abdul El-SayedS6MI00418$45,175,567Mike RogersS4MI00595$20,565,706
New HampshireNew HampshireOPEN -- (Jeanne Shaheen (D))D+2Lean D ↑88.3% (D)Lean D8-Sep-26Chris PappasS6NH00141$21,500,073John E. SununuS6NH00208$5,334,886
AlaskaAlaskaDan Sullivan (R)R+6Toss Up68.1% (D)Lean R18-Aug-26Mary PeltolaS6AK00276$32,623,722Dan SullivanS4AK00214$13,760,055
MaineMaineSusan Collins (R)D+4Tossup63.5% (D)Tossup9-Jun-26Troy JacksonS6ME00464$20,431,280Susan CollinsS6ME00159$24,131,410
OhioOhioJon Husted (R)R+5Toss Up65.7% (D)Lean R5-May-26Sherrod BrownS6OH00163$61,686,820Jon HustedS6OH00304$19,208,763
TexasTexasJohn Cornyn (R)R+6Toss Up ↑62.6% (D)Lean R3-Mar-26James TalaricoS6TX00479$128,772,835Ken PaxtonS6TX00388$19,497,810

House

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingVotehub RatingDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
New YorkNY-21OPEN (Stefanik) (R)RepublicanR+10Lean R83.1% (R)Blake GendebienH6NY21199$7,184,413Anthony ConstantinoH6NY21157$17,064,872
FloridaFL-13Anna Paulina Luna (R)R+6Lean R ↑76.6% (R)18-Aug-26Leela GrayH6FL13312$2,567,273Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158$4,089,080
FloridaFL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R)R+6Lean R ↑68.4% (R)18-Aug-26Eliott RodriguezH6FL27098$1,339,984Maria Elvira SalazarH8FL27185$2,368,783
MontanaMT-01OPEN (Zinke (R))R+5Toss Up ↑57.4% (R)2-Jun-26Sam ForstagH6MT01137$3,690,160Aaron FlintH6MT01152$2,640,894
WisconsinWI-01Bryan Steil (R)RepublicanR+2Lean R ↑66.9% (R)11-Aug-26Mitchell BermanH6WI01283$1,610,305Bryan SteilH8WI01156$6,251,359
TexasTX-35OPEN (Casar) (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑65.5% (D)3-Mar-26Johnny GarciaH6TX35095$1,917,104Carlos de la CruzH6TX35087$1,892,231
ColoradoCO-05Jeff Crank (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R65.0% (R)30-Jun-26Jessica KillinH6CO05324$4,968,409Jeff CrankH6CO05142$2,783,883
KentuckyKY-06OPEN (Barr) (R)R+7Toss Up ↑62.7% (R)19-May-26Zach DemboH6KY06184$2,871,241Ralph AlvaradoH6KY06192$2,187,944
MaineME-02OPEN (Jared Golden (D))R+4Lean R ↑61.5% (R)9-Jun-26H6ME02171$2,671,904Paul LePageH6ME02148$3,233,257
PennsylvaniaPA-01Brian Fitzpatrick (R)D+1Lean R ↑63.5% (R)19-May-26Bob HarvieH6PA01181$2,895,901Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277$7,774,187
MinnesotaMN-01Brad Finstad (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R71.9% (R)Jacob JohnsonH6MN01190$3,205,255Brad FinstadH2MN01223$2,608,655
OhioOH-10Mike Turner (R)RepublicanR+4Lean R79.5% (R)Kristina KnickerbockerH6OH10121$883,182Mike TurnerH2OH03067$1,236,096
OhioOH-15Mike Carey (R)RepublicanR+5Lean R74.3% (R)Don LeonardH6OH15112$1,145,777Mike CareyH2OH15228$4,002,961
South CarolinaSC-01OPEN (Mace) (R)RepublicanR+6Lean R64.9% (R)Nancy LacoreH6SC01359$4,429,295Jenny HoneycuttH6SC01334$1,193,975
AlaskaAK-ALNick Begich III (R)R+6Lean R ↑80.5% (R)18-Aug-26Bill Hill (IND)H6AK01092$2,348,817Nick Begich IIIH2AK01083$6,320,644
ArizonaAZ-02Eli Crane (R)R+7Lean R ↑69.0% (R)21-Jul-26Jonathan NezH4AZ02184$5,361,320Eli CraneH2AZ01354$11,551,401
TexasTX-23VACANT (0)R+7Lean R57.6% (R)Katy Padilla StoutH6TX23273$1,117,715Brandon HerreraH4TX23120$3,115,205
NevadaNV-02OPEN (Amodei) (R)RepublicanR+7Lean R74.0% (R)Teresa Benitez-ThompsonH6NV02362$1,054,467David FlippoH4NV04108$2,934,108
ColoradoCO-04Lauren Boebert (R)RepublicanR+9Lean R62.7% (R)Eileen LaubacherH6CO04202$13,700,426Lauren BoebertH0CO03165$1,226,253
AlabamaAL-02Shomari Figures (D)DemocraticR+7Lean R60.5% (R)Shomari FiguresH4AL02170$2,706,098Rhett MarquesH6AL01086$1,716,374
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert (R))RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑77.3% (D)21-Jul-26Amish ShahH4AZ01194$5,031,605Thomas FeelyH6AZ05190$3,432,885Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan Ciscomani (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑83.1% (D)21-Jul-26JoAnna MendozaH6AZ06099$10,760,731Juan CiscomaniH2AZ02360$7,474,803Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David Valadao (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up83.9% (D)2-Jun-26Randy VillegasH6CA22190$5,465,022David ValadaoH2CA20094$6,058,553Yes
CaliforniaCA-48OPEN (Darrell Issa (R))RepublicanD+2Lean D86.4% (D)26-Jun-26Marni von WilpertH6CA48310$4,518,377Jim DesmondH6CA49128$2,985,951
ColoradoCO-08Gabe Evans (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑88.9% (D)30-Jun-26Manny RutinelH6CO08013$8,578,254Gabe EvansH4CO08034$6,904,664Yes
FloridaFL-14Kathy Castor (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑72.4% (D)18-Aug-26Kathy CastorH6FL11126$4,502,017Mike BeltranH6FL14237$2,614,968
FloridaFL-22Lois Frankel (D)DemocraticR+4Toss Up ↑57.2% (R)18-Aug-26Pia DandiyaH6FL21059$3,930,912Casey AskarH6FL22248$4,969,075
FloridaFL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑77.3% (D)18-Aug-26Jared MoskowitzH4FL20023$3,643,469Scott SingerH6FL23188$2,989,409
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)RepublicanR+4Lean D ↑82.6% (D)2-Jun-26Christina BohannanH2IA02111$9,468,352Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043$8,924,570
IowaIA-02OPEN (Ashley Hinson (R))RepublicanR+4Toss Up ↑60.3% (D)2-Jun-26Lindsay JamesH6IA02211$3,524,080Joe MitchellH6IA02237$2,683,808
IowaIA-03Zach Nunn (R)RepublicanR+2Lean D ↑76.7% (D)26-Jun-26Sarah Trone GarriottH6IA03268$7,654,894Zach NunnH2IA03119$5,968,952
MichiganMI-04Bill Huizenga (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑60.0% (R)4-Aug-26Sean McCannH6MI04204$4,310,699Bill HuizengaH0MI02094$5,367,471
MichiganMI-07Tom Barrett (R)RepublicanEVENToss Up56.5% (D)4-Aug-26William LawrenceH6MI07298$3,665,521Tom BarrettH2MI07123$7,891,381
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James - (R))RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑65.4% (D)4-Aug-26Christina HinesH6MI10276$3,518,814Michael BouchardH6MI10359$2,568,845
North CarolinaNC-01Don Davis (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up ↑71.5% (D)3-Mar-26Don DavisH2NC02287$5,572,578Laurie BuckhoutH4NC01137$4,726,318
North CarolinaNC-11Chuck Edwards (R)RepublicanR+5Lean D ↑74.2% (D)26-Mar-26Jamie AgerH6NC11248$5,401,765Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050$1,025,828
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑87.1% (D)2-Jun-26Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201$8,193,416Thomas KeanH0NJ07261$5,867,419
New YorkNY-17Mike Lawler (R)RepublicanD+1Toss Up61.4% (D)23-Jun-26H6NY17171$9,665,461Mike LawlerH2NY17162$10,001,206
OhioOH-07Max Miller (R)RepublicanR+5Toss Up79.3% (D)5-May-26Brian PoindexterH6OH07168$3,072,898Max MillerH2OH16051$3,289,528
OhioOH-09Marcy Kaptur (D)DemocraticR+5Toss Up73.7% (D)5-May-26Marcy KapturH2OH09031$5,584,405Derek MerrinH4OH09169$2,083,931
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzie (R)RepublicanR+1Lean D ↑81.0% (D)19-May-26Bob BrooksH6PA07188$4,991,635Ryan MacKenzieH8PA15195$5,167,023
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob Bresnahan (R)RepublicanR+4Toss Up72.6% (D)19-May-26Paige CognettiH6PA08293$7,095,684Rob BresnahanH4PA08124$6,197,786
TexasTX-15Monica De La Cruz (R)RepublicanR+7Toss Up ↑81.1% (D)3-Mar-26Bobby PulidoH6TX15246$6,213,369Monica De La CruzH0TX15124$6,551,097
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott Perry (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑76.3% (D)19-May-26Janelle StelsonH4PA10104$8,689,755Scott PerryH2PA04135$6,457,001
TexasTX-34Vicente Gonzalez (D)DemocraticR+3Lean D ↑87.4% (D)3-Mar-26Vicente GonzalezH6TX15162$4,956,873Eric FloresH6TX34080$3,830,063
VirginiaVA-01Robert Wittman (R)RepublicanR+3Toss Up ↑52.8% (R)4-Aug-26Shannon TaylorH6VA01299$4,192,970Robert WittmanH8VA01147$5,216,106
VirginiaVA-02Jen Kiggans (R)RepublicanEVENLean D ↑81.2% (D)4-Aug-26Elaine LuriaH6VA02198$7,364,705Jen KiggansH2VA02064$7,240,304
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)DemocraticR+2Lean D ↑87.0% (D)4-Aug-26Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217$8,838,141John BraunH6WA03275$3,203,193
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van Orden (R)RepublicanR+3Lean D ↑71.8% (D)11-Aug-26Rebecca CookeH4WI03169$11,959,646Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175$8,794,975

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